*Investors Blog*

[Dave Hess]

AG, as you know, the stock market is highly related to the economy but is not the economy. Also, the market is dominated by the big boys so it is hardly a good economy metric. Tesla is the perfect example; is it that much better than the rest of the automobile market? Of course not. Stocks are not up 50%; probably closer to 15% but that is still a great number.

To keep the employment numbers so high is simply unrealistic. Winners and losers. My thing is, what will AI do to our economy and the world beyond? Silicon Valley High Tech will likely continue to explode while other areas and economies may struggle to keep pace.

Time will tell. My chrystal ball is no clearer than anyone else's. But market cap is dominated by tech.

My crystal ball says the economy is really not doing good and job cuts will keep increasing.

Sure, people keep saying Artificial Intelligence is the reason…. we all know what’s on the horizon.

Have some cash on the sidelines for unexpected buying opportunities.

 

[JeffKeryk]

My crystal ball says the economy is really not doing good and job cuts will keep increasing.

Sure, people keep saying Artificial Intelligence is the reason…. we all know what’s on the horizon.

Have some cash on the sidelines for unexpected buying opportunities.

AI is not THE reason. But going forward all bets are off.
Just my 2 cents.

 

[alarmguy]

Those are indicies, not the market.

And?
I guess sometimes these things just fly right over my head and thought you were measuring the performance of the stock market

 

[JeffKeryk]

And?
I guess sometimes these things just fly right over my head and thought you were measuring the performance of the stock market

A stock market index is a statistical tool used to measure the performance of a market segment, while the "entire stock market" is the complete network of all stock trading activity.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Really only 25% higher than the last major hump back in Dec 2021.

 

[Dave Hess]

US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate​

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ted-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-march


Yep. Just as I expected the real numbers are now being released and no denying economy is in shambles.

Where’s all the idiots that keep parroting the Soft Landing narrative…. ?

 

[Pablo]

US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate​

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ted-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-march


Yep. Just as I expected the real numbers are now being released and no denying economy is in shambles.

Where’s all the idiots that keep parroting the Soft Landing narrative…. ?

Paywall

All you need to know:

 

[SC Maintenance]

This came out in last years QCEW also. Danielle DiMartino Booth tried screaming it from the rooftops. No one paid attention.

This year its news for some reason.

The issue has existed in the birth / death model since the pandemic. We discussed it here about 200 pages back. Note the date. She has been taking a lot of heat on this for the past year.

Still changes nothing in the stock market. Passive flows + 7% GDP deficit = TINA.

 

[Mechanician]

The irony here is the desired interest rate cut is likely insured, as a result of these updated numbers.
The 97,000 federal jobs cut since January should be considered as another bit of irony.

 

[Mechanician]

So the T word hauled in 31 billion last month, yet wholesale prices fell .1% last month, - who's paying the taxes?
Our morning cup of coffee seems to be the only casualty to date.

 

[Vil_Riker]

So the T word hauled in 31 billion last month, yet wholesale prices fell .1% last month, - who's paying the taxes?
Our morning cup of coffee seems to be the only casualty to date.

When you pay more to get less...

 

[alarmguy]

US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate​

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ted-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-march


Yep. Just as I expected the real numbers are now being released and no denying economy is in shambles.

Where’s all the idiots that keep parroting the Soft Landing narrative…. ?

Some people in here will read this post that payrolls were down during those 12 months. That is not so (for those who do not know)
It just means payroll numbers were way wrong by around 50%. However payrolls still grew every month during those 12 months by 71,000 jobs each month its just that they were reported to be growing at 147,000

The economy in my option is far from shambles, its why the Fed raised rates to being with. To slow things down, this might be a good indication that they can ease up on the tightening. August 2025 there seems to be good reason for them to do so as the market cools/cooled. Assuming those numbers are correct

 

[Vil_Riker]

Some people in here will read this post that payrolls were down during those 12 months. That is not so (for those who do not know)
It just means payroll numbers were way wrong by around 50%. However payrolls still grew every month during those 12 months by 71,000 jobs each month its just that they were reported to be growing at 147,000

The economy in my option is far from shambles, its why the Fed raised rates to being with. To slow things down, this might be a good indication that they can ease up on the tightening. August 2025 there seems to be good reason for them to do so as the market cools/cooled. Assuming those numbers are correct

They raised the rates to slow down inflation - higher interest rates mean less borrowing and less consumption/investments which then puts a downward pressure on prices. But so far the inflation is still there.

 

[alarmguy]

They raised the rates to slow down inflation - higher interest rates mean less borrowing and less consumption/investments which then puts a downward pressure on prices. But so far the inflation is still there.

Where? What do you look for in a inflation rate?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

 

[Vil_Riker]

Where? What do you look for in a inflation rate?
View attachment 299826
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

They look at Core Inflation.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Where? What do you look for in a inflation rate?
View attachment 299826
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

Current CPI headline is 2.7% and core is 3.1%. Feds favorite metric is core PCE and it is 2.9%. Fed's target is 2% so there 50% above the fed's own target. Also inflation has been increasing over the last few months - your own chart shows it as well.

So by their own metrics the fed should not be cutting. We will see tomorrow an update in CPI I suppose.

However the street is already pricing in 3 cuts this year still - 75bps. The fed never, ever disappoints the banks, so they will cut. If CPI is not increasing even at 3% it might be a 50bps cut. It will be a mistake however.

I could really care less. Front end rates have little to do with inflation. I will need to find a new place for my cash however.

 

[Mechanician]

I will need to find a new place for my cash however.

Remember the return on your cash, is less important than the return of your cash.

 

[Zee09]

Remember the return on your cash, is less important than the return of your cash.

That's why I flip only....well stated

 

[JeffKeryk]

I harvested some equity profits and bought quality bonds with the expectation of rates decreasing.

 

[Hermann]

I'm riding the melt up on the S&P index in my 401K. I'm up $16K since the April lows. Right now its up about 20%. I'm happy Now you know how I bought the new toy.