*Investors Blog*

Mechanician said:
Isn't the Fed's interest rate decided by a 12 member committee, not Powell alone?
Maybe there will be 12 best sellers.
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Fed's natural tendency is to cut - it helps the banks. He has complete cover to do so now. The others will be told to go along.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the long end rise - look at Gilts or Bunds or JGB's - there all rising while their central banks are "cutting".

Either way the natural tendency for equities will be to melt up - for a bit at least. Momentum indicators are softening and liquidity is slowing - but this is all retail driven. BTFD?
 
SC Maintenance said:
Fed's natural tendency is to cut - it helps the banks. He has complete cover to do so now. The others will be told to go along.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the long end rise - look at Gilts or Bunds or JGB's - there all rising while their central banks are "cutting".

Either way the natural tendency for equities will be to melt up - for a bit at least. Momentum indicators are softening and liquidity is slowing - but this is all retail driven. BTFD?
Click to expand...
Do you believe the Fed having independence from active politics is important?
The recent firing of one of the committee members sure looks to be an attempt to change things.
 
SC Maintenance said:
They hit some new high every once in a while then slow decline towards bankruptcy.
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Welp, who ever bet that the stock would jump, made a nice 7% or more if they timed it right:

CB.webp
 
The market is nuts when a company's logo changes and all the social media chaos about it makes the stock price jump around like that. 😄
 
ZeeOSix said:
The market is nuts when a company's logo changes and all the social media chaos about it makes the stock price jump around like that. 😄
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So basically you still have to catch the falling knife at the bottom and predict the future if the company attones:

  • Buying at peak "woke" backlash dips can yield 5-20% short-term gains if companies quickly atone and realign with Overton window, but risks flat/negative returns without resolution.

  • Examples show gains after realignment: Cracker Barrel (18% in 1 week), Planet Fitness (10-15% in 3-4 weeks), Tractor Supply (5-10% in 1-3 months); minimal for Target/Bud Light without full shifts.

  • Short-run timeline: Initial spikes in 1-4 weeks (5-10% up), sustained 10-20% in 1-6 months with atonement; faster than general market dips.

  • Overton window key: Buy during misalignment (peak dip) for upside; gains post-shift via reversal or fading publicity, amid rightward trends post-2023.

  • Risks high due to polarized reactions, counter-boycotts, and economic factors; woke cases often underperform broader "buy the dip" strategies.
 
Owen Lucas said:
Welp, who ever bet that the stock would jump, made a nice 7% or more if they timed it right:

View attachment 297483
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My all time best / stupidest was in what - 2002 when MCI was headed for bankruptcy I bought a whole bunch at like $0.40 I really couldn't afford at the time on some rumor of buy out or whatever. Hit over $1 the next day and I sold. Day later they announced bankruptcy.

I of course thought I was a market genius. :ROFLMAO:
 
Vil_Riker said:
I think they are one of the few stocks that are not over-valued and are not crap.
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I had not even thought of co-part, and I haven't looked at any numbers but I can think of actually a couple reasons, one being a lot of new parts are made off shore and now cost more to import, and there are far fewer new cars sold during the pandemic so people who normally buy used will be forced to keep their old car going longer. It might be worth looking into.
 
SC Maintenance said:
I had not even thought of co-part, and I haven't looked at any numbers but I can think of actually a couple reasons, one being a lot of new parts are made off shore and now cost more to import, and there are far fewer new cars sold during the pandemic so people who normally buy used will be forced to keep their old car going longer. It might be worth looking into.
Click to expand...
One metric to track, would be to somehow tell if they have acquired any new insurance company contracts. I used to go to IAA and Copart frequently, riding around their lots trying to find a totaled car for 15 minutes (while dodging massive fork truck drivers with an obscured view as they have a vehicle on their forks) which was not in correct location.

Auto insurance companies are always looking to save a buck and will go back and forth between these two but the issue is it happens regionally. My paygrade is not high enough to know the decisioning and finances behind it but I'll ask around.
 
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