*Investors Blog*

[alarmguy]

So let's see... Say an item costs $100. You can get it made domestically or imported.
Tariffs increase the import price to $110.
Will the domestic seller sell for $100 or $110? What do you think will happen?
And then all of a sudden tariffs go away or imports are reduced; do sellers will go back to $100?

Yeah, that makes sense, right?
In other words, do tariffs cause inflation?

Of course you know most American cars are partially made in Mexico and Canada, the tariffs would add a minimum of thousands of dollars to the cost of cars...
Do you like coffee? Pharmaceuticals?

A truck loaded with Toyota pickups about to cross to the US next to the border wall at the Otay commercial crossing port in Tijuana...
View attachment 261764

Your not including the profit margin in your $10
It depends on the company margin.
So a $100 product that now cost $110 plus the added profit margin on the extra $10 is what?
Some companies I guess can be as little as another 10 or 20% = $1 or $2 per hundred but products can also have margins as much as 500%

It all depends Isfahan a company is going to cut their profit margin on that extra $10
Many will not. Some will maybe, I don’t know or they will figure a way to cut costs further. At 25% well, might as well ship the stuff to China first than to the USA

 

[alarmguy]

WOW, that’s really disappointing. Here I thought Camry, Accord, Sienna, odyssey were the highest domestic content vehicles with the trucks just behind. Maybe that’s old data.

I have found Mexican OE parts in my definitely US manufactured ram trucks


Consumer electronics is something that there is little to no hope for, unless these tariffs change things. I did think Apple was eyeing up some US manufacturing at one point, but maybe not? Even then what is it, slap a sticker and wrapper and put it in a box? buying may be a good idea. Where is the deal?

Apple has moved a lot of manufacturing out of China but of course it has a long way to go.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Finally got rid of that watery American beer.

 

[alarmguy]

Sadly we can’t rely on the futures but give hope that it’s only down a few hundred points.
The media says “tumble” “sharply lower” “slammed”
That is laughable at the time of this post Diw -575 points.
If it bounced up I may or may not bail out of EVERYTHING. I no like uncertainty and have for me anyway, huge unrealized profits that maybe I should realize for now

 

[SC Maintenance]

At 25% well, might as well ship the stuff to China first than to the USA

Except China only buys commodities, sold on the world market, by the lowest bidder including freight. Except oil, they buy that from Iran or Russia at below market.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Finally got rid of that watery American beer.

View attachment 261868

 

[alarmguy]

Except China only buys commodities, sold on the world market, by the lowest bidder including freight. Except oil, they buy that from Iran or Russia at below market.

No I was saying where feasible ship containers from Canada or Mexico to China or actually any country without tariffs, warehouse them there, and ship to USA in demand? Got me but I was wondering if that happens.
Never mind my post makes no sense, think I’ll go back to sleep … hopefully

 

[SC Maintenance]

No I was saying where feasible ship containers from Canada or Mexico to China or actually any country without tariffs, warehouse them there, and ship to USA in demand? Got me but I was wondering if that happens.
Never mind my post makes no sense, think I’ll go back to sleep … hopefully

Not sure.

In normal times duties are calculated based on HS code and country of origin. ie I ship a German part from Canada to US, the duty would be the same as if it came from Germany. That is why products are supposed to follow the rules and clearly mark where its made.

With these I have no idea. There not a law, there emergency powers. So I have no clue if say Columbia shipped Canadian goods here, if we would pay 25%?

 

[Snagglefoot]

View attachment 261872

Bitcoin fuels your GDP = a house of cards.

 

[Pablo]

Bitcoin fuels your GDP = a house of cards.

I actually didn’t know that

 

[SC Maintenance]

Bitcoin fuels your GDP = a house of cards.

Bitcoin is neither a good or service and is not counted as GDP. If you counted crypto you would also have to count newly created currency, fractionally created bank debt and derivatives.

 

[Pablo]

 

[Snagglefoot]

Bitcoin is neither a good or service and is not counted as GDP. If you counted crypto you would also have to count newly created currency, fractionally created bank debt and derivatives.

You better check that one.

 

[SC Maintenance]

You better check that one.

Its not. Hence its called a currency.

If you were to buy servers and electricty to mine crypto it would be. Most of that is done offshore.

If you were to spend crypto on a good or service it would be.

Bitcoin as an asset is not a good or service, and not part of GDP.

 

[Pablo]

You better check that one.

Do you actually have a cite?

 

[alarmguy]

Its not. Hence its called a currency.

If you were to buy servers and electricty to mine crypto it would be. Most of that is done offshore.

If you were to spend crypto on a good or service it would be.

Bitcoin as an asset is not a good or service, and not part of GDP.

I have no idea what I am talking about but even if Snuggle was correct/ Its a big nothing for us. For almost every country except China it would be and maybe can include China in that too. House of cards? The whole world is, I would put my money on the USA to pull out of it.

US GDP 2024 = 28,781,083

Bitcoin = 1,359,340

Source https://cryptopresale.com/learn/blockchain/bitcoin-vs-world-economies-gdp-comparison/

 

[alarmguy]

Im on the fence for today. This mornings thinking was to bailout until the dust settles. I have these feelings many times in the last 5 ish years and it never happened to me so I am too complacent, waiting for the Japan scenario of decades back. . WMT to me is defensive, Im thinking even META might be and Amazon.
The killer is, in a real downturn even those stock multiples can come down significantly. However the media presentation of "slammed" on CNBC this morning is a 600 point drop in the DOW which is comical if not downright propaganda for clicks.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Do you actually have a cite?

Here you go. As with anything involving crypto there is always a lot of had waving going on. As for the ridiculous concept of Bitcoin mining the inputs undeniably contribute to GDP, such as buying computers and consuming electrical power, and placing those little machines so nerds can get a crypto fix.

 

[Pablo]

Here you go.

View attachment 261881

Theoretical global GDP

 

[Snagglefoot]

Theoretical global GDP

The whole thing is theoretical. China bans crypto and will race past the USA in GDP.