*Investors Blog*

[supton]

Gonna fade?

The market? not sure I understand.

*

Staring at my 401k vs Roth. My Roth is up but my 401k is down. Small amounts but odd, since for the most part I only have growth funds. But each has different holdings, so I guess that's to be expected. Just odd, since I thought most of them had basically the same holdings.

Trying to figure out some tax loss harvesting. If I understand it, if I cash out a stock at a loss, I can claim up to $3k as a loss, off my taxable income? [Loss above that can be claimed the following year.] I have RSU's that vested this summer that I regret not selling the moment it hit my account, and I'm debating if I'd rather cut & run vs hold & hope. I can afford to do nothing, but cold hard cash is always comforting. Doesn't save that much off my tax bill--but it's still a cut to the bill.

 

[Pablo]

The market? not sure I understand.

I was just being silly. But the usual. After a small down period we seem in the last x years to begin again with mornings up, then PM fades.

See if today fades is all.

 

[supton]

I was just being silly. But the usual. After a small down period we seem in the last x years to begin again with mornings up, then PM fades.

See if today fades is all.

Got it.

I try not to look, as I'm a passive investor, only invested in retirement funds. Looking too often drives one batty. This one stock that I have, it has been a fun ride, and enough to keep me from day trading for sure.

 

[alarmguy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/19/ama...n-us-facilities-ahead-of-christmas-rush-.html

This might hurt Amazon sales if more facilities strike.

My feeling a tiny pin head, like 1% of their capacity affected. Im actually thinking about AMZN to add to my spec account. Wish it wasnt up 50% then again what isnt? *LOL*
I see AMZN as a technology stock, they are massive in the web services business and growing. I have WMT for retail. I dont know, im tossing coins right now but strongly considering buying some AMZN

30 billion dollar commitment to data centers for the next five years. IRONICALLY determining where to put the data centers relies on their being enough electricity to power them. We as a country REALLY have to get our act together and lose the fear of nuclear plants.

Even then it's almost too late. Here we have technology companies that will be competing with typical consumers for electricity.
Think about that, we have electric cars (well at least some think lithium powered cars is the future), that in itself is a challenge and we have USA companies whom expansion plans involve needing the same power.

Ps, you see that photo in your link? All they can show is 9 employees with signs in that photo. (not that other places there arent more)
(just my rant for the day)

 

[MBBW]

The market? not sure I understand.

*

Staring at my 401k vs Roth. My Roth is up but my 401k is down. Small amounts but odd, since for the most part I only have growth funds. But each has different holdings, so I guess that's to be expected. Just odd, since I thought most of them had basically the same holdings.

Trying to figure out some tax loss harvesting. If I understand it, if I cash out a stock at a loss, I can claim up to $3k as a loss, off my taxable income? [Loss above that can be claimed the following year.] I have RSU's that vested this summer that I regret not selling the moment it hit my account, and I'm debating if I'd rather cut & run vs hold & hope. I can afford to do nothing, but cold hard cash is always comforting. Doesn't save that much off my tax bill--but it's still a cut to the bill.

You can claim as much of the loss as you want if it is to offset cap gains. If you have no cap gains then you can still harvest the loss, but only $3k can be applied per year and the rest rolls over, until if/when you use the balance to offset cap gains.

 

[tbm5690]

My feeling a tiny pin head, like 1% of their capacity affected. Im actually thinking about AMZN to add to my spec account. Wish it wasnt up 50% then again what isnt? *LOL*
I see AMZN as a technology stock, they are massive in the web services business and growing. I have WMT for retail. I dont know, im tossing coins right now but strongly considering buying some AMZN

30 billion dollar commitment to data centers for the next five years. IRONICALLY determining where to put the data centers relies on their being enough electricity to power them. We as a country REALLY have to get our act together and lose the fear of nuclear plants.

Even then it's almost too late. Here we have technology companies that will be competing with typical consumers for electricity.
Think about that, we have electric cars (well at least some think lithium powered cars is the future), that in itself is a challenge and we have USA companies whom expansion plans involve needing the same power.

Ps, you see that photo in your link? All they can show is 9 employees with signs in that photo. (not that other places there arent more)
(just my rant for the day)

ND is rapidly growing within the data center space for this reason...resource-rich energy exporter that has plenty left over to sell to power-hungry facilities.

 

[supton]

You can claim as much of the loss as you want if it is to offset cap gains. If you have no cap gains then you can still harvest the loss, but only $3k can be applied per year and the rest rolls over, until if/when you use the balance to offset cap gains.

No other trades, so it'd be purely off my ordinary income.

 

[mjk1967]

My feeling a tiny pin head, like 1% of their capacity affected. Im actually thinking about AMZN to add to my spec account. Wish it wasnt up 50% then again what isnt? *LOL*
I see AMZN as a technology stock, they are massive in the web services business and growing. I have WMT for retail. I dont know, im tossing coins right now but strongly considering buying some AMZN

30 billion dollar commitment to data centers for the next five years. IRONICALLY determining where to put the data centers relies on their being enough electricity to power them. We as a country REALLY have to get our act together and lose the fear of nuclear plants.

Even then it's almost too late. Here we have technology companies that will be competing with typical consumers for electricity.
Think about that, we have electric cars (well at least some think lithium powered cars is the future), that in itself is a challenge and we have USA companies whom expansion plans involve needing the same power.

Ps, you see that photo in your link? All they can show is 9 employees with signs in that photo. (not that other places there arent more)
(just my rant for the day)

I worked briefly in an older Data Center (around 2011). Pretty amazing, and I am sure that style is now a relic.

 

[alarmguy]

Purchased AMZN with some spare change left in my spec account. Still fully in the market.
$222.505
Not sure why, had the thought for a while, then thought the market was done, now Im not so sure it is and my wife walked in the room while I was checking out the price to show me a cooler she was going to order on Amazon, already had the page up, so not to lose my train of though, I clicked the mouse. Decision made!
Doesnt mean I wont sell it by the end of the day, or tomorrow or in the summer of 2025.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Anyone want to talk rates?

10 year is at 4.7. 30 year is almost 5. Long end has risen 100+Bps since the fed cut. Bunds, Gilt's all holding firm even while there central banks cut.

China at all time lows. Clearly in collapse.

Dollar nearing another high.

Maybe good time to deploy to international equities. Maybe Japan?

 

[Pablo]

Anyone want to talk rates?

10 year is at 4.7. 30 year is almost 5. Long end has risen 100+Bps since the fed cut. Bunds, Gilt's all holding firm even while there central banks cut.

China at all time lows. Clearly in collapse.

Dollar nearing another high.

Maybe good time to deploy to international equities. Maybe Japan?

I am thinking the peak maybe near, watch Th-Fri - may get back in some bond funds.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I am thinking the peak maybe near, watch Th-Fri - may get back in some bond funds.

Whats special about Thursday - Friday?

 

[Drew99GT]

Any Bitcoin gamblers here? I’ve been trading it using the short term holder cost basis. In when price is above and SHCB is rising. Out at all other times. Only trade a few times a year if that. Done pretty darn good for the last several years and avoided a lot of the pain.

 

[Pablo]

Whats special about Thursday - Friday?

Markets closed Thursday. People stew in juices, Fed chatter. Inventories.
Friday is US Employment and to a lesser degree consumer sentiment.

IF it looks like more inflation, TNX will be rates up. Gamble then or mellow until next week. Picking (rate) peaks, never fun, but be patient, not bad and get paid at the same time.

 

[MBBW]

Anyone want to talk rates?

10 year is at 4.7. 30 year is almost 5. Long end has risen 100+Bps since the fed cut. Bunds, Gilt's all holding firm even while there central banks cut.

China at all time lows. Clearly in collapse.

Dollar nearing another high.

Maybe good time to deploy to international equities. Maybe Japan?

Simply put, the Fed was wrong about the so-called "soft landing".

 

[alarmguy]

Markets closed Thursday. People stew in juices, Fed chatter. Inventories.
Friday is US Employment and to a lesser degree consumer sentiment.

IF it looks like more inflation, TNX will be rates up. Gamble then or mellow until next week. Picking (rate) peaks, never fun, but be patient, not bad and get paid at the same time.

I find it frustrating for the markets to be closed, I initially thought it was just going to be federal offices. Also seems like the flag flies at half mast for everything that takes place in society lately like a self-inflicted depression that never ends. Let the flag fly high and proud. Honor all those in other ways that we feel we should.

 

[MBBW]

I find it frustrating for the markets to be closed, I initially thought it was just going to be federal offices. Also seems like the flag flies at half mast for everything that takes place in society lately like a self-inflicted depression that never ends. Let the flag fly high and proud and honor all those in other ways that we feel we should.

I think for the passing of a former POTUS it's acceptable. I'm going to enjoy the bank holiday and you should too!

 

[alarmguy]

I think for the passing of a former POTUS it's acceptable. I'm going to enjoy the bank holiday and you should too!

That’s OK and I respect the way you feel.
I certainly have no disrespect for an ex president. I just don’t feel the country should shut down over it. I feel more empathy for a soldier in a foreign land, gun in hand, putting his life at risk then someone we elect to office who leaves office with tens of millions more in wealth then when he came in.
OK, but this is an investment thread and I won’t comment any further. Except to say I love this country.

 

[MBBW]

That’s OK and I respect the way you feel.
I certainly have no disrespect for an ex president. I just don’t feel the country should shut down over it. I feel more empathy for a soldier in a foreign land, gun in hand, putting his life at risk then someone we elect to office who leaves office with tens of millions more in wealth then when he came in.
OK, but this is an investment thread and I won’t comment any further. Except to say I love this country.

He was in the Navy.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I think for the passing of a former POTUS it's acceptable. I'm going to enjoy the bank holiday and you should too!

Most of the world must continue to work, so we can continue to pay taxes, so we can continue to prop the elites up.

I am good with the flag at half mast. President Carter was an honorable man and a patriot who dedicated most of his life to our country. Whether we agreed with him or not doesn't matter.

I guess I could trade crypto - that market never closes.