By long term historical norms it is, from the markets standpoint.
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
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TSLA up 15%. Go figure. Must be the Cybertruk?
Kinda sorta. Look at the map and the guy who might win by the college and will lose the pop, won the pop by over 5 meg
He didn't get into the nitty gritty of the research, but it sorta sounded like a fairly close split between the 3 different pieces were good for equities.
Take it for what its worth. Stocks are up this AM?
Self Storage stocks down today, I have no idea what the reasoning is there???
Pfizer down (understandable).
Texas Roadhouse up almost another 5% right now.
Pfizer down (understandable).
Texas Roadhouse up almost another 5% right now.
Not sure why the gold sell-off either?
Home loan rates up, less moving. Threats of certain people people moving out of the country never materialize.
TR good earnings
That was more than a week ago.
I want to see Elon on the new team.
Their honey butter rolls and birthday horse saddle rides deserve the pop.
Well meaning friends and family of mine have put the vast majority of their assests in bonds, thinking they are "safe". I tell them unless you need the funds within 2-3 years, stay in equities. Medium to long term I believe equities are safer than bonds, and definitely more safer than cash. JMO.
You maybe are running bond funds and bond together and putting safe in quotes tells me you are a thinking person, but it's not that simple as saying equities are safer than bonds or the like.
I mean for sure periods cash can be safer than either.
Actual bonds, not funds, are relatively "safe". Defining safe as not likely to lose your initial $. Buy the bond, get your principle back when bond matures. Interest along the way, or at maturity. Long term bonds can be quite safe.
BUT unless they keep ahead of inflation (often not) then they are not a wise investment, nor as you hint at they are not smart for all people or situations.
Even bond funds can be fine if interest rates are bound to come down from a peak.
Thats what I meant. Bonds for example have vastly underperformed the past two years. Buy a Total Bond fund in Jan 2022 and you are still down 10-15%. Broad equities (SP500) have soared the past two years. Any retiree in nearly all bonds will still be digging out of a hole for a few years, just to get back to even. The SP500 could lose 25% tomorrow and you are still well ahead over the past two years.
Over a 5 year or 10 year period, its almost impossible to lose out with stocks.
I agree with your sentiment, but not your logic. I mean "bonds" are a pretty broad brush from treasuries to junk. People don't understand duration risk. The idea that long dated bonds are "safe" is laughable.
If you really need money in 2-3 years, it should be in T-bills or a money market or maybe TIPS. Depends on the need. To eat, yes. To buy a new car you really don't need, meh let it all ride on NVDA
Still, at least 3 times in the last 100 years Equities have collapsed, and ignoring inflation if you bought the Dow in 1929 nominal recovery was like 30 years, S&P in 1999 was like 13 years, Nifty Fifty in the 70's was a long time also, at least a decade.
No free lunch, no guarantee.
Thats fine, I am not trying to convince you or anyone else. Feel free to disagree.
All I know I am doing pretty dang well. LOL
Again, define safe.
Terrible investment, but safer than Webvan, LINE, Worldcom, WBA, etc you get the picture.
The Pro's define "safe" in probability terms. "Safe" would have a low probability of loosing significant portions of its principle. What is low is defined by your risk tolerance.
A 1% rise in the yield on a 30 year treasury would cost you about 1/3 of the face value. So sure, 70% left is still better than worldcom, but I don't think anyone ever viewed worldcom as safe. On the flip side, a 1% drop in yield on a 30 year will make you about 40%. Given that yields tend to fall in recession, a long dated bond is used by pro's to balance the loss risk of a low volatility portfolio. ie they don't hold only 30 year treasuries. You don't hold 30 year treasuries for the yield, you hold them for a hedge or appreciation.
Thats why I said there was a broad brush. You can get the all kinds of bonds.
A T-bill is "safe" because it has neither duration or inflation risk but over the long term you will loose to inflation.
We live in very strange times, because the stock market is up 30% and T-bills have recently been paying a real yield of 2% above inflation. Get away from the recency bias and neither of those is normal.
