*Investors Blog*

[John105]

I dunno... Has worked out pretty well for me. I will say it seems my approach is far different than what I see here, if I understand what others seem to do. My investing plan is for decades. Buy and sell for a little here and there? I am not after chump change; I am after millions. Look at Tesla. People love it or hate it based on short term results, the ups and downs. I will hold it for a minimum of a few more years and am expecting a nice return instead of a modest return right now.

By the way, my investing days are over; I am just sitting on my portfolio. Schwab Wealth Advisory manages most of it for me. Sure I pay them, but if I needed brain surgery I would prefer an expert do the work.

The most important thing is invest in yourself. Hopefully I am not done with that part. But the financial part is wrapped.

I’m not advocating doing what I did (tendency to only buy and basically hold forever). But I bought some things 2020 when the pandemic started not knowing, and then didn’t do anything more.

Last weekend I was on hold with United Air for 35 min. So I logged in to all my accounts for the first time in 2 years. One can imagine what I saw. Of course record high balances.

What was a “play” brokerage account in 1998 has a balance 50% of my house value. Proof that things “can” go up over time.

I always remember what Jack Bogle said. 3/4 money managers can’t beat the market, why pay them to try.

I don’t even have the information that the above money managers have.

One quandary for me is I had a lot of VMWare. I called one brokerage to say I want Broadcom stock. The others I forgot. Now there is a ton of cash in those other accounts and I said let’s leave it. I’m supposed to be more cash at my age than I am.

But as a general rule, since I started putting in, 1994, the general trend has been up, and there was never any good time to jump out.

We have a friend who did so March 2020. That move has a 7 figure opportunity cost. Not sure how it gets justified in our friend’s head (39% missed money).

 

[Dave Hess]

John105,

How old are you ?

I’m very surprised you didn’t check account in 2 years.

 

[Pablo]

John105,

How old are you ?

I’m very surprised you didn’t check account in 2 years.

I had a hard time with that............

 

[John105]

John105,

How old are you ?

I’m very surprised you didn’t check account in 2 years.

Over 55. Since I have well over 10 more years to work, imho there’s no reason to make any moves other than to keep putting in, or hold. I can’t and have never been able to time the market.

 

[Pablo]

Over 55. Since I have well over 10 more years to work, imho there’s no reason to make any moves other than to keep putting in, or hold. I can’t and have never been able to time the market.

But you didn't look? At least once a year, taxes, brokerage statements? Hmmm...........you are correct. Don't do THIS!!

 

[alarmguy]

Over 55. Since I have well over 10 more years to work, imho there’s no reason to make any moves other than to keep putting in, or hold. I can’t and have never been able to time the market.

That’s a great story and I’m sure great feeling.
I think sound advice is to make sure you take profits along the way.
Because there is no profit in unrealized gains

 

[JHZR2]

John105,

How old are you ?

I’m very surprised you didn’t check account in 2 years.

Utoh I better not ask my question then…

Well I will.

I just looked at a Franklin Templeton account I’ve had since I was maybe 5 years old. I can’t looked at it in a while. Maybe not two years, but I should have thought about and taken action two or more years ago…. It has some China World fund in it.

Obviously not doing good. I bought it long ago, 10+ years ago when emerging markets were a big thing and China growth was gangbusters.

Now that fund is down. A lot.

And the news cycle tells me that things won’t end well with China.

It’s only a few thousand dollars, where in the Franklin Templeton range would you shift the money?

 

[Pablo]

Utoh I better not ask my question then…

Well I will.

I just looked at a Franklin Templeton account I’ve had since I was maybe 5 years old. I can’t looked at it in a while. Maybe not two years, but I should have thought about and taken action two or more years ago…. It has some China World fund in it.

Obviously not doing good. I bought it long ago, 10+ years ago when emerging markets were a big thing and China growth was gangbusters.

Now that fund is down. A lot.

And the news cycle tells me that things won’t end well with China.

It’s only a few thousand dollars, where in the Franklin Templeton range would you shift the money?

Just put it in FT. Seems like a decent buy point.

 

[John105]

But you didn't look? At least once a year, taxes, brokerage statements? Hmmm...........you are correct. Don't do THIS!!

Well maybe clarification. I have 4 401k accounts of which I didn’t login to, to make changes. I did get a new cell# in 2022, so it was a mess I forgot to update 2 factor authentication. It’s not as simple as calling, trust me. But I didn’t “check” my balances or record them.

This “is” the reason I messed up and only requested Broadcom stock on 1/4 accounts that held VMware. Resulting in cash.

If we work 10 hours a day and spend another 2 commuting, for me 4/5 days, the last thing I want to do is to deal with finances on my down time. If I could time the market it would be different.

Is it the way to go? Not really as my account isn’t exactly $10k or $100k. But I also refuse to hire a money manager (rest assured I don’t have 10 mil) either.

The brokerage accts I electronically downloaded 1099 INT and B’s.

Maybe it would have been more accurate to say I didn’t make any moves since March 2020 and I didn’t check 401k balances until being on hold with United Air. Because you make me remember I did update my cell Nov 2022 on 4 401ks and I logged in, and that’s less than 2 years ago…

 

[JHZR2]

Just put it in FT. Seems like a decent buy point.

I already have significant exposure to utilities in the FKUTX fund I’ve probably had for 35+ years now. Does that change your opinion? Had never looked at FT. Says high yield bonds and utilities. I’m early 40s…

 

[SC Maintenance]

Utoh I better not ask my question then…

Well I will.

I just looked at a Franklin Templeton account I’ve had since I was maybe 5 years old. I can’t looked at it in a while. Maybe not two years, but I should have thought about and taken action two or more years ago…. It has some China World fund in it.

Obviously not doing good. I bought it long ago, 10+ years ago when emerging markets were a big thing and China growth was gangbusters.

Now that fund is down. A lot.

And the news cycle tells me that things won’t end well with China.

It’s only a few thousand dollars, where in the Franklin Templeton range would you shift the money?

I have a similar story. Back in around 98 or 99 I think (graduated college in 96) I put $2000 in a roth IRA. Everyone said I should - Roth IRA, in tech, At my age was going to the moon. Some Janus fund. It was to invest in the safest large cap tech stocks - like Microsoft. I made like $40K at the time, so that was real money to me.

That fund no longer exists. That account went below $400 at one point. They threatened to charge a fee because my balance was too low. I called and gave them a piece of my mind, and they have never charged me a fee. That fund was closed, it was rolled to something else then was bought by state street and went to something else. Its like $7K now - well below average market returns.

I keep this fund to remind myself that they are liars. They like to roll this very skewed chart out that says just put money in and you will get rich, but they always choose a timeline that benefits them. Entry points matter.

So back to you, there are some people now saying China may have dropped too far. Not China bulls - fund management types. To be fair there more traders - but you might get a dead cat bounce?

 

[John105]

That’s a great story and I’m sure great feeling.
I think sound advice is to make sure you take profits along the way.
Because there is no profit in unrealized gains

That’s the scary part. Exactly why someone in my shoes went 100% cash March 2020. But he ignored he cost he and his wife 7 figures. Instead he feels good getting another $500 off on a new Mazda. We are all irrational I suppose I could be the pot calling the kettle black. I just redeemed almost $2k in rewards cuz my buddy said that’s stupid redeem them every month, what if the card issuer cancels the program? But another buddy says he has well over $4k in rewards and is not redeeming them. I think we’ll always be able to find people like ourselves as the world is so big…this is part of the reason I feel I can blow some money on a nice car (Chevy Tahoe High Country with the air suspension)…

I would say never go all or nothing but somehow the weighting should be appropriate. I am too heavily in equities for my age and I know it…

Edit p.s. what else comes to mind is many of us are older…if we don’t have our health all of this becomes less important or moot. I’m really still a 55+ kid in my thinking and actions. My childhood buddy says me too, and when we’re no longer, life is over…

 

[SC Maintenance]

I would cash that $2K reward and stick it in a T-bill. In 1 year it will be $2100.

 

[Pablo]

I already have significant exposure to utilities in the FKUTX fund I’ve probably had for 35+ years now. Does that change your opinion? Had never looked at FT. Says high yield bonds and utilities. I’m early 40s…

You said it's not a large amount. You could go wide low cost stock fund and forget about it, or income fund and forget about it. Historically a stock holding would do better long run. FT is around 25-30% stock, rest bonds, bond like. I hold a little in a taxed account. The key is to buy it right. Again since taxed, not gonna sell it soon, and just take the income (and pay the taxes) vs re-investing and lowering cost basis IF I were to sell. Either way, just something to think about and I really can't say I know Franklin's other offerings.

 

[JHZR2]

You said it's not a large amount. You could go wide low cost stock fund and forget about it, or income fund and forget about it. Historically a stock holding would do better long run. FT is around 25-30% stock, rest bonds, bond like. I hold a little in a taxed account. The key is to buy it right. Again since taxed, not gonna sell it soon, and just take the income (and pay the taxes) vs re-investing and lowering cost basis IF I were to sell. Either way, just something to think about and I really can't say I know Franklin's other offerings.

Yes the China fund is just a few $k. Lots of money in the utilities which is what made me think. May be a good time to get some bond exposure, besides i bonds that I buy through payroll deduction…

 

[alarmguy]

That’s the scary part. Exactly why someone in my shoes went 100% cash March 2020. But he ignored he cost he and his wife 7 figures. Instead he feels good getting another $500 off on a new Mazda. We are all irrational I suppose I could be the pot calling the kettle black. I just redeemed almost $2k in rewards cuz my buddy said that’s stupid redeem them every month, what if the card issuer cancels the program? But another buddy says he has well over $4k in rewards and is not redeeming them. I think we’ll always be able to find people like ourselves as the world is so big…this is part of the reason I feel I can blow some money on a nice car (Chevy Tahoe High Country with the air suspension)…

I would say never go all or nothing but somehow the weighting should be appropriate. I am too heavily in equities for my age and I know it…

Edit p.s. what else comes to mind is many of us are older…if we don’t have our health all of this becomes less important or moot. I’m really still a 55+ kid in my thinking and actions. My childhood buddy says me too, and when we’re no longer, life is over…

I get the kid a 55 thing. My wife tells me that all the time *LOL*
As far as "life" yes, I had and hold more wealth as far as I am concerned than the late Steve Jobs did, him not much older than me is no longer with us, money could not fix his more valuable life than his vaulable holdings.

Ok, back to the stock market. I never have really been burned by the market, maybe too cautious a long time back but with that said I had and still have a fairly substantial (in my relative world) investment in a real estate holding that I own with no debt on it. IT pays me every month without fail for decades now.

So I followed and tinkered in the market for DECADES but it was a secondary thing. Now I pay more attention for the last 15 ish+ years. I used to fight the market when I thought doom was around the corner with the massive government borrowing that REALLY took off in 2008 and to this day and MUCH to my surprise continues completely unabated. Its now just a matter of time and I think that time is getting close now, in all honesty I thought that 10 years ago and why I dont fight the market, so I am here for short term rides, in and out for the most part. ( I do like you have a 401k also and I do like you leave that alone, its in index funds)
That could be a month, 3 months, or three years in any individual stock. I do have one holding in my spec Roth for a long time because I saw its behavior when times were gloomy and this company seems to do better when times are gloomy.
That company is WMT- Walmart. It's taken time, I only owned it for about 5 years which is forever in this account but I think this year I will hit the point where it's up 100%. I purchased in the 90s around 5 years back.

SO as of right now, I am in WMT and the rest cash in my spec account, recent my holding before cash as TMUS which I did ok with, one other that I am drawing a blank on right now and a recent 3 month sprint with all that cash in GM. I forgot what my 3ish month gain was but it was around 20+%

Anyway, everything I do is simply to try to beat market averages, beat bank interest rates. Im about 1/3 in the bank, 1/3 in Roth and 1/3 in 401k plus my real estate holding. Would hitting the Holy Grail of stocks be nice? Absolutely who would deny that, sounds like you did great too. But I dont need to hit that Holy Grail, I live a good life, not extravagant by any means at all but one in which my wife and I can enjoy knowing we will always have food, a nice home in a modest resort community, family and health.

Which leads me to this and part of the investing talk of this thread. For the young, I would never tell someone how to invest, its impossible to know, but I know one thing, almost every stock on the stock exchange would be and maybe slashed beyond belief once our country can no longer afford to prop up business by borrowing money. The whole country is only doing the business it is doing because of the massive borrowing we are doing. What is the back up plan for the next world event? We already will be paying interest equal to the national defense budget in the coming years.

This is the only reason the market is doing well and it's not sustainable so what will happen when forced to stop? Even when times are called good, we haven't tried to stop this insanity, so what is the figure that breaks the camels back? We will be closing in on 50 trillion before you know it, at this rate and without it what will happen to those unrealized gains and the value of money in general. It's all a fairytale unlike anything in the history of our country. But then again, what do I know, maybe it is me thinking its a fairytale and it is sustainable which leads me to why I dont fight the market and at the same time, I am in the preserve what I have mode.
http://usdebtclock.org

 

[Dave Hess]

Utoh I better not ask my question then…

Well I will.

I just looked at a Franklin Templeton account I’ve had since I was maybe 5 years old. I can’t looked at it in a while. Maybe not two years, but I should have thought about and taken action two or more years ago…. It has some China World fund in it.

Obviously not doing good. I bought it long ago, 10+ years ago when emerging markets were a big thing and China growth was gangbusters.

Now that fund is down. A lot.

And the news cycle tells me that things won’t end well with China.

It’s only a few thousand dollars, where in the Franklin Templeton range would you shift the money?

T bill or CD for now.

I still feel markets can slowly grind higher and then rug pull after election.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I don’t know what you think you see here. It’s an investor thread. Investment generally means over some timeframe, and most folks are doing it for decades, because it has to do with retirement and long term structuring.

Doesn’t mean that trading, which can be a facet of investment doesn’t have a play. It does.

There are all kinds of theories, all means to an end.

You’ve got an interesting story, but if you made a lot of it thanks to tons of stock options that hit big, its kind of apples to oranges. It’s easy to talk about decades and wealth advisory when you have a windfall that many others dont have, perhaps won’t have. They’ll have the regular compounding that the powers thst be allow them to have based upon however things work. That’s different. Not right, wrong, etc… just different.

But in an investors thread, different theories, concepts, looking at data, etc. is the purpose. No different than looking at UOAs and spec sheets since this is an oil forum…

Exactly. My point is my approach seems to be different from others. The most important thing is to invest in yourself.
Short term investing seems like gambling to me; it scares me. Long term seems to be much safer over time.
Stock options may or may not work out; I would never count on them 100%. That's why I split them out with my Schwab advisors. We treat my portfolio as if they do not exist. I am pretty darn conservative when it comes to finances. I never wanna be broke again; safety first.

 

[JHZR2]

Exactly. My point is my approach is different from others. The most important thing is to invest in yourself.

I’d suspect that most folks have invested in themselves.

But most folks don’t get thousands of options at single digit prices that change to triple digit prices (my recollection of the scenario that you mentioned openly on this thread). That’s not being upset, jealous, whatever. Good for you. It’s not the same outcome for most. And it’s not like the situation for most is borne out of bad decisions or a bad hand. It’s just what it is.

It’s easy to talk about wealth management when given a windfall. Or an inheritance, or whatever. More strategy, and now to the grindstone is needed for the rest. You put your nose to the grindstone in different ways. We get and respect that. But here, folks are generally trying to make something from nothing but meager inputs. To me that’s a difference. Put yourself back in your shoes at LAM or wherever when you were a few years in and had no options.

Not trying to be a jerk, just saying that your path is different it seems…

I suspect I’ll get a significant windfall when my parents pass. And wouldn’t hope for those days ever. I’ll take clawing my way to $MM net worth besides the house by saving pennies and dollars, and all four parents living. I was given a college education paid for, and a lot of moral support. Many folks don’t even get that. We’re all trying to get into your shoes

 

[JeffKeryk]

I’m not advocating doing what I did (tendency to only buy and basically hold forever). But I bought some things 2020 when the pandemic started not knowing, and then didn’t do anything more.

Last weekend I was on hold with United Air for 35 min. So I logged in to all my accounts for the first time in 2 years. One can imagine what I saw. Of course record high balances.

What was a “play” brokerage account in 1998 has a balance 50% of my house value. Proof that things “can” go up over time.

I always remember what Jack Bogle said. 3/4 money managers can’t beat the market, why pay them to try.

I don’t even have the information that the above money managers have.

One quandary for me is I had a lot of VMWare. I called one brokerage to say I want Broadcom stock. The others I forgot. Now there is a ton of cash in those other accounts and I said let’s leave it. I’m supposed to be more cash at my age than I am.

But as a general rule, since I started putting in, 1994, the general trend has been up, and there was never any good time to jump out.

We have a friend who did so March 2020. That move has a 7 figure opportunity cost. Not sure how it gets justified in our friend’s head (39% missed money).

The reason I use advisors is there are a myriad of investment products that I would never be aware of. Diversification means different things to different investors, based on a set of factors. What you have in your 30's should probably be different than in your 60's and beyond. Some people need tax advantaged products, some may benefit from annuities.