*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
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My old company, Lam Research, LRCX continues to scream. Up another $32 today. I got my options starting in the 1990's.
Tech for the win!
Tech for the win!
Congrats ..... Home Run with LRCX
You have no idea. My 1st option was for "a few thousand" shares for the project I delivered to the Executive staff. I shouldn't say the real number...
People wonder why I am so high on Silicon Valley and tech in general. Roller coaster? Sure. Over time? Priceless.
I was at Lam for 5 years, went to Novellus for 17; Novellus was bought by Lam, then another 3 years at Lam. Yup.
They are still using some of this original project to drive the company.
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Yep, nice day today.
At the time I wrote that ^^^^^ alot of the indicators were flashing Sell signals and still are . But the market continues to make new highs ...... so I'm still holding .
It's all about the opportunity. You have to take advantage of that opportunity, of course. Silicon Valley is the opportunity capital of the world. I love it here. I tell people if you can't make it here you can't make it anywhere.Good to see you were rewarded for your skills and expertise.
Just my experience.
Thanks for the kind words Dave. And thanks Lam/Novellus. Plus Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor and the rest.
Beyond the strong market numbers, Consumer Sentiment is "surging".
But everyone buys gas, food, etc. And like to see their nest egg grow. The soft landing slowly progresses...
I'll take the good news.
- The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021.
- On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.
- Consumer sentiment has improved amid a drop in gasoline prices and solid stock market gains.
But everyone buys gas, food, etc. And like to see their nest egg grow. The soft landing slowly progresses...
I'll take the good news.
I bought some SSO today. Buying some more Monday. Riding the blow off top till it blows off.
And I heard today that the bottom 50% hold 57% of the consumer debt as well. The divide widens - never good.
I sold some SMCI this afternoon. Made $10K in a day.
Agreed.
From a numbers standpoint, it makes sense. With wealth you don't need debt. They are opposite ends of the spectrum.
There are ways to lessen the divide, but of course it involves change.
Too many unintended consequences
They have been trying since 1964 and the problem is how much better?
It’s almost like some ideas are being ignored. Naw. Couldn’t be?
People don’t want to change. People just want. Stuff. Gratis.
In AA we say, "If you like what you're getting, keep doing what you are doing."
We also say, "You only have to change one thing... Everything. But you don't have to do it all at once."
In my life, if I am not changing I sure ain't learning.
The government treated the symptom, like putting a band-aid on a bullet wound. Won't fix anything.
The largest wealth transfer in history was during the pandemic. The Fed Govt printed $7T and the fed reserve took their balance sheet from $4T to $9T. So $12T dumped into the economy, got multiplied by the fractional reserve banking systems. The plebs got $600 checks and were too stupid to realize they got took. Money poured into the stock market and it zoomed, it poured into private equity and they bought everything they could see. Most billionaires wealth doubled. If you own a home you feel better off. If you own 10 mansions your much better off.
So no, we haven't tried to fix the problem. You can't fix the problem with welfare or student aid or low income housing. Not treating the problem.
When the federal reserve act was created many people advocated that the base money supply should be limited to 3% increase a year at most. Through a fractional reserve system that would amount to maybe 15% increase max in year. The government should have a balanced budget. When money is created it always starts at the top. You and I could never access the fed's ZIRP window. Banks and hedge funds can.
I think you are defining the problem as the wealth divide, but don't wanna put words in your mouth.
Of course the gvt put a lot of $$ into the economy during the pandemic. The pandemic was the problem; the checks were an attempt to stop the loss of people's assets and to put food on the table. In economic terms, to stave off a huge recession. Not a perfect solution but the problem was huge. There is never a perfect solution to something like the world wide pandemic.
The lower income people who got pandemic checks are not generally big stock market investors...
The US economic recovery from the pandemic was faster than comparable economies.
What is your solution?
$600 x 3 times x 320M people (all of which didn't get any) = $576B. Where did the other $11.4T go? Maybe they had to do 1/10th of it. The other 9/10ths made the rich, richer and gave the rest of us 9% inflation.
Did you know that up until July 2023 - 6 months ago, businesses were getting $7000 per quarter per employee retention credits. Supposedly so they didn't lay off employees - in a market with too few people to fill open jobs.
Same as 2008. The banks that caused the problem got bailed out and bonuses. It wasn't a people buying too much house - that was a $1T problem. It was liar loans and greedy banks holding too much junk on their balance sheet. That was the $10T problem.
Just like in 1987 when the greenspan put was invented because the stock market fell. There was no economic justification. The economy was sound, employment was strong. He wanted to juice the markets, and did.
This didn't start in March 2020.
Sure. My question was in reference to the pandemic relief and assistance money which was handed out pretty liberally, IMO. I respect your posts and learn from them.
My point was, the checks staved off a lot of asset loss and perhaps a major recession. The evidence is our current economic status vs other industrialized countries.
I’m not saying these markets can’t keep churning higher but I’m proceeding with caution.
This article by Ted Oakley (Oxbow Advisors) sums up how I feel about the current markets.
Déjà Vu 2000
https://oxbowadvisors.com/market-comments-january-2024/
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