*Investors Blog*

alarmguy said:
Im tickled pink that I dumped my employee owned Wells Fargo stock early this week. NOT!
It's only gone up another 10% two days later. Let's see what happens today *LOL* Talk about timing, oh well, would have, should have, could have, I always hated this stock. I still did ok, but was waiting for one more leg up and just missed it!
(im only posting this because its nice to hear the not so great successes once in a while, we tend to hear only the good ones)
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This happens to me too. Don't dwell on it. Makes it seem, to me at least, as if it happens more frequently than reality.

I readily admit I was lucky with NYCB. With a run up, with such a stock, in 10 days, I'm out yesterday. And today it's down. Point is we overemphasize both directions. Makes one a lousy investor.

Look at the reasons you bought and sold. Look at the reasons why it went up or down. Even if not a technical trader. there is something tiny bit to be learned.
 
Pablo said:
This happens to me too. Don't dwell on it. Makes it seem, to me at least, as if it happens more frequently than reality.

I readily admit I was lucky with NYCB. With a run up, with such a stock, in 10 days, I'm out yesterday. And today it's down. Point is we overemphasize both directions. Makes one a lousy investor.

Look at the reasons you bought and sold. Look at the reasons why it went up or down. Even if not a technical trader. there is something tiny bit to be learned.
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Yes, Agree 100%. I do as you posted, older, wiser and key is reasons to buy and sell. There is always a would have and could have.
I always hated WFC, bought it during my short term employed there. Never went anyplace BUT luckily in some strange way, down. Started buying around 40 a share, max contribution all the way down to its lowest point in the 20s and all the way up to around 40 when I stopped buying. SO it was ok, but I wanted to be done with it years ago and didnt sell when it went back to 50.
Im not convinced of the big bank business model anymore but I know nothing, truly.
 
JeffKeryk said:
First, you are 100% correct; the stock market is not the economy (but it greatly affects the economy). Apologies for implying that; it was just a good day all around.

Deflation is caused by a general drop in aggregate demand. Tightening of the money supply is a cause as long as output remains unchanged.
I should have said higher unemployment generally accompanies deflation because of declining demand, but the 2 affect each other. Deflation causes can include tightening of the money supply (but not always; our economy is an example), stock market decline, consumers choosing savings and certainly reduced government spending.

I appreciate your thoughts; you know a lot. And I certainly listen to them. All good.
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Never a concern - the idea here is to share ideas. No one can predict the future. When I heard some pretty well respected economists talking deflation in 2024 a couple months ago I thought they were smoking their own monetary policy. However I thought about it some more, and really there are only 3 scenarios. Were in very rapid disinflation. So soft landing (very hard), back to inflation possible? or Deflation?

I personally don't think deflation would be so bad. Were starting at a really high level. It benefits savers. As mentioned employment is high.

No one can predict the future, but you can speculate on probabilities all day long :)
 
SC Maintenance said:
Never a concern - the idea here is to share ideas. No one can predict the future. When I heard some pretty well respected economists talking deflation in 2024 a couple months ago I thought they were smoking their own monetary policy. However I thought about it some more, and really there are only 3 scenarios. Were in very rapid disinflation. So soft landing (very hard), back to inflation possible? or Deflation?

I personally don't think deflation would be so bad. Were starting at a really high level. It benefits savers. As mentioned employment is high.

No one can predict the future, but you can speculate on probabilities all day long :)
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Deflation is generally good for the consumer, other things being equal.
Inflation and deflation are often considered negative when in fact they are naturally occurring in economies. It is far more complicated than that; there are always winners and losers. I know I cannot predict the future, so I had better prepare for it. This is why my personal financial methodology is long term planning. So far so good.
 
When measured in CPI, there was deflation even during the gilded age, as technological advances and mass production brought prices of most goods down. Yet population growth, better education, innovation and increased international trade, i.e. globalization* created huge economic growth (on average - there were some hickups in the process).
For the vast majority of people, this deflation was a blessing.

The deflation after the bubble of 1929 burst, on the other hand, lead to the great depression.


*the world in 1900 was much more interconnected, both regarding capital flows and migration, than in 1970.
 
zzyzzx said:
Are you sure that you really want to sell anything right now???
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Need to rebalance a little and take some profits, good time to sell with markets at peak covid levels since I sold a few bad decisions at a loss earlier in the year.
 
Owen Lucas said:
Need to rebalance a little and take some profits, good time to sell with markets at peak covid levels since I sold a few bad decisions at a loss earlier in the year.
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A bad decision was holding subprime liar loan mortgages on your bank balance sheet in 2008.

Buying a security that lost money is simply a learning experience. Learn from it - move on.
 
Follow up.

1) Preferred stocks, not a new concept. Fun read: https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/03/a-value-opportunity-in-preferred-stocks/#fourth

2) Meeting with, Fido rep: Had my second meeting. There is nothing magical he is going to tell me. We both established that. That's not a thing. That said, I updated our budget spreadsheet. We talked about fleshing that out further. We talked how much it could be pared back, just to see. You know, really good, somewhat eye opening. We talked EMERGENCY-SAFETY-GROWTH with our savings. Just some different perspectives.

He has NOT tried to sell me anything.

We talked about automating my portfolio and what that looks like to me. Really nice to just talk about some of this. No pressure.

ULTIMATELY: The direction we are headed is most certainly more individual bonds. And maybe Fidelity doing research for me. This will take the bond search frustration out of my hands. I have more than 2 meg in MMs right now, and yes will hold some of that for the market downturn, but with rates flattening, bond time is on.

Next meeting Jan 8
 
Yep, it is a still inflationary time, and green cash is losing. I wish more people can understand keeping cash in a 0.1% checking account is a sure loser over time.

It might seem counterintuitive, but small caps and micro caps which are usually regarded as "high risk" are probably fairly safe right now, at least as compared to the overbought "7".
 
Im feeling greedy and most likely will live to regret it.
Exactly 2 months today I bought GM, occupies 37% of my Roth right now. Its up just over 20% and think I will hang in there for some more... but ... maybe Ill be crying in another week *LOL*
 
alarmguy said:
Im feeling greedy and most likely will live to regret it.
Exactly 2 months today I bought GM, occupies 37% of my Roth right now. Its up just over 20% and think I will hang in there for some more... but ... maybe Ill be crying in another week *LOL*
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I remember you being in that same predicament not to long ago .
 
Warstud said:
I remember you being in that same predicament not to long ago .
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Makes you feel alive! All seriousness though I really try not to fight the market and mostly successful but this one stock is to me stupid cheap compared to some peers I look for that little extra something and once again wonder if I will wish I didn’t. 🧐
It is safe though except losing unrealized gains!
( just having fun here)
 
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