*Investors Blog*

[ZeeOSix]

One thing: the stock market is not the economy. Companies are crying for people. My fear is if the Fed drops interest rates too low too fast and slows the economy too much.

I can't really understand why more people don't fulfill these open jobs and get back to work, especially when prices keep going up and people need more money to live like they use to. And the unemployment rate is actually pretty low right now, so it seems a lot of things don't align or correspond.

I don't think the Feds are going to be dropping the interest rate anytime soon ... more likely raise it some more.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I can't really understand why more people don't fulfill these open jobs and get back to work, especially when prices keep going up and people need more money to live like they use to. And the unemployment rate is actually pretty low right now, so it seems a lot of things don't align or correspond.

I don't think the Feds are going to be dropping the interest rate anytime soon ... more likely raise it some more.

Anyone who wants a job can get a job, especially around here. Unemployment is extremely low. There are more jobs than job seekers.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Anyone who wants a job can get a job, especially around here. Unemployment is extremely low. There are more jobs than job seekers.

Yeah, that's what I basically eluded to ... but why are these jobs not being fulfilled so the supply chain can get back to normal (and maybe curb some inflation)? Probably more jobs were fulfilled 2 years ago than there are now. Guess everyone retired and play the stock market, or said the just want to live under a bridge now.

 

[Pablo]

Yeah, that's what I basically eluded to ... but why are these jobs not being fulfilled so the supply chain can get back to normal (and maybe curb some inflation)? Probably more jobs were fulfilled 2 years ago than there are now. Guess everyone retired and play the stock market, or said the just want to live under a bridge now.

Have you been to WA HI CA or OR?

The party camps are brim full.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Have you been to WA HI CA or OR?

The party camps are brim full.

I'm pretty much where you are ... and I see it all over the news here all the time. Last time I was in HI was about 7 years ago, and of course homeless all over the place ... always has been in HI due to climate and maybe lack of jobs at the time. There must be way more people who just retired within the last 2 years from the pandemic then most can imagine, and that's the main reason there's a shortage of workers now. And of course the ones who went into homeless mode. If all these jobs could be fulfilled we probably wouldn't be in a bad supply shortage, and not be seeing this inflation as much as we are.

And I'm riding out the market down turn ... most of my investments are realatively low risk except for some big name stocks, which will come back as the choas subsides.

 

[Pablo]

Assloads of unemployable folks. Many by choice. They are not looking for work.

 

[joekingcorvette]

Online trading is a getting to be a big deal for the younger generation as well as the older generations. Thirty years ago people and kids didn't buy stocks on their cell phones as they do in todays world. I enjoy buying and selling on TD Ameritrade. I only sold one time however it is an option that is available and very user friendly. You will pay for short term gains on your earnings if you sell. I see younger kids comparing their little cell phone portfolios all the time and it's a big deal plus you are in full control of your investments. If you have a financial advisor they don't want the inconvenience of you calling them up to invest a small amount of money however you can invest online or sell in seconds.

 

[Warstud]

I agree with your "sell" advice. This is a market cycle that has been triggered by the 2+ year thing and Putin's war.
One thing: the stock market is not the economy. Companies are crying for people. My fear is if the Fed drops interest rates too low too fast and slows the economy too much.

What is this 2+ year thing you speak of and what does Putins War have to do with it ?

 

[Warstud]

My fear is if the Fed drops interest rates too low too fast and slows the economy too much.

BTW: The Fed is raising interest rates to slow the economy not lowering them.

 

[PimTac]

Assloads of unemployable folks. Many by choice. They are not looking for work.

It is really unbelievable what we see out here.

A young energetic person can get two jobs right now and burn the candle on both ends for this short period of time. That would put a big jump start into their savings. Unfortunately very few are going that route.

 

[JeffKeryk]

BTW: The Fed is raising interest rates to slow the economy not lowering them.

Ha ha ha! Of course you are right. I meant raising the rate. My fear is raising it too fast too soon possibly resulting in slowing spending by both individuals and companies.
Interest rates walk a fine line between increasing rates to keep the economy in check and increasing them too high where the increase may result in a recession.
Jay Powell is a good man.

 

[JeffKeryk]

What is this 2+ year thing you speak of and what does Putins War have to do with it ?

Please. I think you know what has been affecting the world the past 2+ years.
Putin's war has further disrupted the world, especially energy and markets.

 

[Vern_in_IL]

Please. I think you know what has been affecting the world the past 2+ years.
Putin's war has further disrupted the world, especially energy and markets.

$6 dollars this summer for national average is being predicted.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I can't really understand why more people don't fulfill these open jobs and get back to work, especially when prices keep going up and people need more money to live like they use to. And the unemployment rate is actually pretty low right now, so it seems a lot of things don't align or correspond.

I don't think the Feds are going to be dropping the interest rate anytime soon ... more likely raise it some more.

The supply chain problems are not local to the US and are not simply labor based. Heck Shanghai is shut down again.
A shortage of workers (and shutdowns) reduced production capacity around the world. Factory production schedules like to run at near capacity to maximize factory investment and better leverage fixed costs. Startup is expensive and can be slow. Workers find other jobs.
Ditto trucking; truckers like to run at or near capacity.
Because this is happening not just at one point in the supply chain, but multiple points, it becomes difficult to bring supply and demand back into balance.

Think about retailers and manufacturers. Anticipating a material shortage they increase orders by 10% to 15%; maybe more. This increases demand to an already stressed supply chain.

We all know about the fuel prices, and just about everything is delivered by truck.

Then there are high tech components such as semiconductors. They have their own set of supply chain issues such as firmware chip coding.

I like your point, "it seems a lot of things don't align or correspond". This is a multi-faceted issue and needs to be addressed at each step.

 

[Dave Hess]

$6 dollars this summer for national average is being predicted.

They might start to release from a stockpile that’s rarely used, called the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve.

Get ready folks….

I got some oil & gas investments doing very well.

 

[joekingcorvette]

They might start to release from a stockpile that’s rarely used, called the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve.

Get ready folks….

I got some oil & gas investments doing very well.

Yes, I purchased some BP stock and it's gained over 24% in less than a year.

 

[alarmguy]

$6 dollars this summer for national average is being predicted.

Yeah, but $6 is really nothing, low tax states like where we are in the low 4s. True two years ago I was paying $1.39 but that was a covid low.
This whole high gas price media attention never brings up the basic facts of the repressive taxes some states place on gasoline. This is in addition to local county, city and federal taxes.
What I am saying is without taxes gasoline would be the same for the rest of the country, $3.50 to $4.25 a gallon. Then take into account 50 years of inflation gasoline is not expensive only the taxes added on over the last 50 years.
There is a war going on and I accept this as a product of war and the peoples choice in voting booths.

Good news is, gasoline demand is at the lowest point since 2013 except for that covid 2020. This will correct the price increases.

 

[alarmguy]

Yes, I purchased some BP stock and it's gained over 24% in less than a year.

Nice move... I was really liking Chevron and even though everyone in the media is recommending them I feel its too late once everyone recommends an energy stock. You got in at the right time.
I have a money shortage in the sense I am fully invested and have been for years now. I like my investments and cant bring myself to sell one to buy another, maybe a good thing but I have so many ideas in my head to invest *LOL*
Conservative is my game plan, though a money manger might not think individual stocks is not conservative.

My wife and I always do our part to keep the economy moving *LOL*, through all the last few years of Covid ect, we haven't changed a thing, took vacations as usual ect. Turn off the news, live your lives is our motto.
Now, POSSIBLY might be making the next move, literally! To another state, in the looking around stage, love our home and where we live but like the idea of a new experience. Looking forward to the higher interest rates putting a cap on the new home prices and seems to be happening already.

What I am saying is we are living in the best of times, but the media has people convinced we are not. Life has never been better!
Im so proud of my kids, my nieces, their spouses and my nephews who dont buy the down and out line preached everyday in the news. My god from just about above entry level jobs to the first CEO in our family everyone of them is making a good, self sustaining income, some incredible incomes that even shock me and others who were maybe not college material have job positions and salaries one would have never thought possible.

So all the above BS I typed is related to my position on the stock market. I just dont see a downturn coming and staying invested reasonably.
I was never one for stocks selling at high P/E ratios and those are the ones getting burned right now, as always.
Fact is Americans have more money, less debt and more spending power TODAY, then they did before Covid became a household name.

 

[alarmguy]

Since this is about investing, do we have companies to discuss other than EV speculation (after all cars have been around for over a century.

Anything new on the horizon? I see some start ups on the west coast with automated prescription robotics that dont need pharmacies and mail or deliver direct. I find the concept interesting, was tempted to invest but never invested in a pre market start up company.
Concept seems like the future, prescription's filled in seconds and accurately too. But who will be top dog is always the question. The one that claims the best software system?

 

[PimTac]

Since this is about investing, do we have companies to discuss other than EV speculation (after all cars have been around for over a century.

Anything new on the horizon? I see some start ups on the west coast with automated prescription robotics that dont need pharmacies and mail or deliver direct. I find the concept interesting, was tempted to invest but never invested in a pre market start up company.
Concept seems like the future, prescription's filled in seconds and accurately too. But who will be top dog is always the question. The one that claims the best software system?

Nothing new really. These kinds of systems have been around for a while now but the goal is to have the patient submit their refill requests via a app that goes to the computer system. That verifies the request and instructs a machine to fill it. After a check by a pharmacist it would go into a vending machine that the patient can access with that same app.

Most refills today are filled by machine either at a central location or stand alone pharmacy. They can be mailed out or picked up.

I know the Fred Meyer pharmacy I use has a Parata system. I request via the app and pick up at the pharmacy in the usual method.

The big hindrance is the individual state boards of pharmacy that want to ensure the safety of the process and there is nothing wrong with that.