*Investors Blog*

I have 3 theories on this:

1. They are falling for the hype of the world imploding in on it self and the oceans boiling away due to global warming, and want to find backup shelter. I mean global worming is real but I don't think it will manifest it self so quickly that you need something right now.

2. Owning a bunker in NZ is the popular meme in the elite community.

3. They really do know something is coming, and that's the scary scenario.

1% folks can get on their Gulfstream and fly to their private island / bug out shelter if things get bad.
 
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Another Good Day. Google and Microsoft are both down after hours. Investors aren't happy with there earnings. Therefore the Market will probably be down tomorrow.


Screenshot 2022-10-25 at 18-20-01 Chinese Stock Market Sends Warning As Waterfall Selloff Con...webp
 
With the USD being extremely high from historical standpoints - companies that generate a lot of earnings offshore will make less profit (in US dollar terms).

Companies that buy inputs to their product off shore and sell a lot here - people like Apple for example - should make higher profits.

Not sure how that plays in this earnings season - but it will show up eventually.
 
Hmmmm that is not what this chart shows. Activity may be slowing, so realtors will go back to making 30k-200k a year instead of 200k-800k a year. But realtor commissions (and mortgage brokers) making monster commissions and maying an average living is not going to tank the economy.

Adult employment participation and paying people in mass not to work with unearned dollars will tank the economy of the long run.



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^^^ Looks like that chart is starting to roll over ... give it time to catch up to what's coming as the article eludes to. If there is a housing bubble pop it will add more pain to the economy.

Houses don't sell if there's not mortgage taken out. Sure some people pay "cash", but that's noise in the system.

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^^^ Looks like that chart is starting to roll over ... give it time to catch up to what's coming as the article eludes to. If there is a housing bubble pop it will add more pain to the economy.

Houses don't sell if there's not mortgage taken out. Sure some people pay "cash", but that's noise in the system.

View attachment 122971
Z06,

What the chart you posted tells me is people may not be motivated to sell, and if so, with a housing shortage, single family home prices could start to rise again very soon.
 
Z06,

What the chart you posted tells me is people may not be motivated to sell, and if so, with a housing shortage, single family home prices could start to rise again very soon.
If mortgage interest rates keep going up - and they will - it's going to make people stop selling and buying to some extent. Housing prices will have to come down a lot to make people want to pay an 8 or 10+% interest rate mortgage. That along with the increased prices in pretty much everything else in the economy. Where's all the extra money people need to buy all this more expensive stuff coming from?

1666744664015.png
 
If mortgage interest rates keep going up - and they will - it's going to make people stop selling and buying to some extent. Housing prices will have to come down a lot to make people want to pay an 8 or 10+% interest rate mortgage.

View attachment 122976
Z06,

If the housing shortage is accurate, what options do people that can afford a mortgage have as an alternative to buying? Many people with solid jobs have families and won't rent. All I see is that people that need a home have some negotiating power.
 
Z06,

It the housing shortage is accurate, what options do people that can afford a mortgage have as an alternative to buying? Many people with solid jobs have families and won't rent. All I see is that people that need a home have some negotiating power.
Then those people will be spending way more money on a mortgage and not on other things (like cars, vacations, "want items" vs "need items", etc, etc) which will also impact the economy due to less demand for other things beside a roof over their head. Maybe everyone needs a big old mortgage payment so the demand for other things do down so those prices can come back down, lol.
 
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