*Investors Blog*

This Xmas season will show how much people will cut back spending, and how much retailers want to cut prices (ie, step off the inflation train) to attract sales.
 
I watch this:

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Seems to me if this DXY backs off until 110-111, something breaks.
 
With mortgage rates rising and Xmas season coming, I am getting excited about buying a property. Or 2....
Good luck with thet Jeff. Flew out Friday night to Denver for grandson birthday party, airport packed. Every seat on the plane full. Every restaurant at the airport waiting in lines to get a 18 beer. Avis rental a car bus standing room only at 1am. Everywhere we went in the denver area was busy as ever this weekend. My 7am flight from den to sea this morning jam packed. At discount tire at the moment not a seat open in the place for customers. I fly to hong Kong tonight, when to see if I could get a better seat, every seat full.

American public pockets are full of cash. The only exception is depressed areas, that have been thet way for many years. I researched current home foreclosure trends, almost non existent. Only two states with any foreclosures, Illinois and new Jersey. And those two are also the top two states in debt.


There may be an inflation problem, but no economic problem in view.
 
American public pockets are full of cash. The only exception is depressed areas, that have been thet way for many years. I researched current home foreclosure trends, almost non existent. Only two states with any foreclosures, Illinois and new Jersey. And those two are also the top two states in debt.

There may be an inflation problem, but no economic problem in view.
Yes, excess cash is an inflation driver. Of course our high, worldwide inflation hurts many people more than others. And jobs are everywhere!
I am looking for an entry level condo in a decent area, likely the Blossom Valley area of San Jose.
I can get a 2/1, 900 sq ft with carport for under $500K. At $400K I am a buyer, but that's a stretch. They are at least $50K down over a few months ago. Another rate increase and Xmas season work in my favor. People are selling more right now because they forsee a downturn.

I really don't want to buy another property, but there are some reasons I will likely do so. Kinda important, IMO.
 
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Yes, excess cash is an inflation driver. Of course our high, worldwide inflation hurts many people more than others. And jobs are everywhere!
I am looking for an entry level condo in a decent area, likely the Blossom Valley area of San Jose.
I can get a 2/1, 900 sq ft with carport for under $500K. At $400K I am a buyer, but that's a stretch. They are at least $50K down over a few months ago. Another rate increase and Xmas season work in my favor. People are selling more right now because they forsee a downturn.

I really don't want to buy another property, but there are some reasons I will likely do so. Kinda important, IMO.
I keep waiting for this real estate boom to bottom out and fall. It may have bottomed out but I don’t think it’s going to fall (at least to the point where it’ll truly be a buyers market). You’ll have your dips in the season (now into the winter) as people pick through whatever is left from the spring/summer inventory, but I’m not seeing the “bargains” we saw 15 years ago when adjustable rate mortgages ended and people were loosing their homes, as the market fell.

There’s too many jobs out there now, with too many people making decent salaries. Which is a good thing.
 
I keep waiting for this real estate boom to bottom out and fall. It may have bottomed out but I don’t think it’s going to fall (at least to the point where it’ll truly be a buyers market). You’ll have your dips in the season (now into the winter) as people pick through whatever is left from the spring/summer inventory, but I’m not seeing the “bargains” we saw 15 years ago when adjustable rate mortgages ended and people were loosing their homes, as the market fell.

There’s too many jobs out there now, with too many people making decent salaries. Which is a good thing.

I don’t think @JeffKeryk is expecting that kind of correction like we had in 2008. Not sure why you would expect it as well. But some correction will most likely happen if we continue this road we are currently on. I’m on the sidelines as well, not expecting drastic real estate price drop, but I’ll take whatever I can. Many people are probably thinking similarly.
 
I keep waiting for this real estate boom to bottom out and fall. It may have bottomed out but I don’t think it’s going to fall (at least to the point where it’ll truly be a buyers market). You’ll have your dips in the season (now into the winter) as people pick through whatever is left from the spring/summer inventory, but I’m not seeing the “bargains” we saw 15 years ago when adjustable rate mortgages ended and people were loosing their homes, as the market fell.

There’s too many jobs out there now, with too many people making decent salaries. Which is a good thing.
I agree were not going to see what we did in 2008, but I still think it will drop. I live near Charleston SC. The generally ho-hum but decent suburbs have doubled in price since the pandemic. A couple of them you can't buy anything under a cool million. This isn't silicon valley - where a nephew of mine just went to work making $175K out of college - the average income around these parts is still around the national average - like $52K and there are some but not a ton of high tech or medical jobs. My part of town has doubled as well. There didn't used to be any townhomes / condos at all but there building them everywhere now - I assume to keep the prices down. Also there is no reason to be near downtown. The larger employers - Boeing, Volvo, etc are way on the outskirsts of town where there is still tons of room to build.

We may actually get to a real estate market driven by local economics not the national averages for the first time in 30 years.

Maybe it will just go sideways for a few years until things catch up - but given mortgage rates have doubled I don't really know who is going to buy those million dollar homes. FOMO someone I guess.
 
All the Expats left months ago - production has dropped drastically - much of the equipment is from the USA or EU … so they will struggle for a long while …
The assets left were said to be valued at $4B. They technically left at the start of the war, the assets were just officially seized by Russia. XOM net income last quarter was $18B.

The oil price increase due to the war in Ukraine is likely far more profitable than that Russian oil would ever have been. XOM was up yesterday.

Full disclosure - I own XOM stock. Not a lot, but some.
 
Oil should drop to 82 but I'm keeping a tight stop so don't give as much back as on my es trade

Lovely decline...will have to use some intestinal fortitude to hold till 82 and not take my profits lol....lowered stop so I'm guaranteed money
Here we are...I closed and reshorted but don't think I posted that reshort here

News traders that gave the OPEC+ cut credence lose again🙂....best to be contrarian in trading and life lol
 
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