*Investors Blog*

That must be the Dow. I thought that died? 😲

OP said SPX. ATH @ close 6144 in February some time. Closed today at 6092.
Everyone has their own thoughts on what's the best metric. Maybe average them all together for a +/- movement tracking.
 
Everyone has their own thoughts on what's the best metric. Maybe average them all together for a +/- movement tracking.
Well, thats true, but every company in the Dow is in the S&P. Ditto for Nasdaq. So averaging them would be simply double counting some and not others.

The Dow was "invented" at a time when tracking stocks was a time consuming and manual process so they picked supposedly representative companies. Now a computer does it in a millisecond. To each there own.

If were honest with ourselves 7 companies dictate what the market does.

But if I get to choose then I pick the MSCI world - which is 85% by market cap of global publicly traded companies. Its already at an ATH.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.WORLD
 
The Dow was "invented" at a time when tracking stocks was a time consuming and manual process so they picked supposedly representative companies. Now a computer does it in a millisecond. To each there own.

If were honest with ourselves 7 companies dictate what the market does.
If computers can do it in milliseconds, then maybe they should include every stock in the US market for a complete cross section of how the entire stock market changes.
 
Well, thats true, but every company in the Dow is in the S&P. Ditto for Nasdaq. So averaging them would be simply double counting some and not others.
It wouldn't matter if some are in the same measured metrics. Averaging all the different metrics into one summary is going to normalize it and give a better indication of the overall +/- picture.
 
What do you guys think about OpenAI (ChatGPT) stock or Anduril (Mil tech)?

OpenAI is apparently $240 a share but you need to be an accredited investor to purchase it or go through a financial advisor to get in through the secondary market. I think there are minimum buy in amounts as well, supposedly around $50k to start. $240 pre IPO is rather high and even though some of the hype is priced in, I think they have a long way to go. OpenAI hasn't even gotten involved with robotics yet and are supposedly coming out with some type of personal device .

Has anyone invested in the secondary market?
 
If computers can do it in milliseconds, then maybe they should include every stock in the US market for a complete cross section of how the entire stock market changes.
Thats called the Wilshire 5000, and the S&P 500 represents 80% of it. But sure - you could use that I suppose, but no one does so it would be a lonely discussion.
It wouldn't matter if some are in the same measured metrics. Averaging all the different metrics into one summary is going to normalize it and give a better indication of the overall +/- picture.
Of course it would. There all weighted indexes. APPL would get counted 3 times - S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow. XOM would only get counted once. So relative to their weight apple would give 3X the signal to your average. You would be better off with the Wilshire 5000, but it more or less tracks the S&P with a lag anyway. Which is why everyone uses the S&P I presume - its just the laziest way. 🤷‍♂️
 
I don't believe Yahoo at all. I am looking at the projections from the Investment banks inside the article. Deutsche, Goldman Sachs, BMO, CITI, J.P. Morgan, etc. Look at the graph contained inside the article.
There are a whole ton of analysts predicting strong gains going forward. I drive a lot and listen to probably 50 podcasts a month. They fall into one of two categories but get to the same place.

1) Doge, T's are dead, big tax cuts, fed will cut, Marry Poppins and her umbrella ride a unicorn in, and we melt up to 7000.

2) The deficit blows up, the fed cuts anyway, either now or 10 months from now when the new fed chair arrives, the long end of the yield curve blows up and inflation pumps past 5 again, pushing stocks to 7000 because TINA.

The only ones screaming recession are the inflationist boogeyman former fed types?

Me - I try to only look 90 days ahead max. 🤷‍♂️
 
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I will mention, there is one analyst I really like that has a slightly different take - Michael Howell of Cross Border Capital. His analysis says we hit a liquidity wall between September and as late as Q1, which slows growth to a trickle and we tack sideways to down. He thinks what comes after depends on the fiscal and monetary response.

Jim Biancho is sort of in this camp to a degree also - Bonds, cash, Equities all produce 4-6% going forward. I really don't know what to think of his analysis but his track record is pretty good also.
 
I watch a lot of CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. I record the weekly Barron's Roundtable too. I try to discern a consensus from what I observe. I mentally discard the extreme bull and bear calls, and look for the centrist views. Pretty much every firm has a Year End targets in the 6000-6600 range. My private advisory team is of like mind. I think we end up 6300 or so. I'll take it.
 
Doing good on LMT today
Buy it near the low and 9:35 to 9:55 AM seems to be the high of the day lately... not cheap but not painful as long as you don't buy mega shares...

Of course the patterns change
 
J Powell leaves in May 2026 and he is trying to salvage his legacy.

Maybe everything stays propped up until his replacement arrives and the new guy does massive rate cuts ?
Are you for rate cuts Dave?
 
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