Animal Spirits don’t care about the risks.
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
Animal Spirits don’t care about the risks.
The valuations remind me of the dot.com bubble in the late 1990's. One example from that era was a small company called WebVan, which was basically just a bunch of guys with Vans delivering food purchased on the "new Internet". It had a market cap of 10 billion, and one or 2 years later it went bankrupt.
If you look at a quality company like Intel, whose entire market cap could be purchased by a daily upside move in Nvidia after a good earnings day for Nvidia, you know something is wrong with Nvidia's valuation.
Valuation does matter, and it will always revert back to it's mean whether we're talking about the S&P 500 or individual companies.
The usual way it reverts back to it's mean is through a market crash. Storm clouds are on the horizon. I'm looking forward to buying Nvidia from the guy who took a -10x loss on it and is panic selling at the bottom of the crash.
Divide by 1000 and I would think your discussing a penny stock.
Has anyone subscribed to the "Millionaire Investor Secrets" discord channel (link from it's youtube page).
It seems like a good service, seem to provide many young growing AI stocks than can do 10x, 100x, 1000x in the next decade.
Was just curious if anyone has any feedback (good or bad) on them before I subscribe.
It seems like a good service, seem to provide many young growing AI stocks than can do 10x, 100x, 1000x in the next decade.
Was just curious if anyone has any feedback (good or bad) on them before I subscribe.
I have some cash on sidelines for some buying opportunities.
I am expecting a Nvidea correction, and along with it, some downward pressure on AI related stocks. And Apple and Tesla are no longer rocket ships. I just rotated a part of my retirement portfolio to some electric utilities. With all the pressure to get off of fossil fuels and onto electricity, there is going to have to be upgrades to the distribution systems that only incumbent franchised utilities can handle. Regulators will have to grant them rates sufficient to raise private investor capital, or grant them government subsidies.
I am 100% in a money market paying about 5.4% interest annually.
In the event of a severe recession in 2024, I will be well positioned to buy at very low prices.
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I still have some paying energy and utilities. Other odds and ends. Money markets. Lots of bonds padded in, which yeah if rates go UP I get a little haircut......but really I just buy MORE.
Silicon Valley baby!
Which ones. I have been looking at them for a while - not sure if I should buy a basket or just buy the VPU. The only two I like on their own are NEE and D.
I was very involved with the revenue recognition problems and solutions of the dot.com bubble. From a high level, a company reported forecasted revenue streams based on shipments; the numbers could show incredible growth. But software (and/or hardware) does not always work as advertised or per spec. If there were problems, the revenue payments could be delayed or the product even returned. SAB 101 and SAB 104 required guidelines for revenue recognition so revenue forecasts would be more clear for investors. Basically, to put teeth in revenue performance.
I wrote the program for the billion dollar company I worked for. I was an insider, subject to stock transaction blackouts, etc.
Funny thing; guidelines were not specified by the new regulations. Each company defined their own guidelines, but had to stick to them. The SEC regularly reviewed rev rec documents. The jist was, revenue recognition streams for orders had to be tied to formal customer acceptance of the product.
That’s a tough call, the S&P is up over 30% in the last year. I agree at some point it will go down but what is that point is the question.
Meanwhile if you haven’t been in the market you lost out on a huge rally.
I do know the feeling. I’m doing well fully invested and would like to lock in the gain.
My wife is also doing incredible in her 401k.
I bite my tongue as she handles her own account on her own. Does well without any advice from me and maybe why she is doing so well!! LOL But I wish she would lock in the gains too and I would NEVER suggest anything anymore than she would me.
Boring is good. It's the people with the exciting investments who suffer the most pain during a recession.
Depends on where you are in life. If you have enough money, T-bills are paying above inflation. Not to mention the current rally is getting pretty long in the tooth even if you believe its justified thus far.
I have not - if you do let us know.
I can't help but think the winners in the end - like 10 years from now - will be software not hardware outfits. And much like the competition over the internet 20 years ago - its not going to be won by lumbering old fools like microsoft - its going to be startups like Google and Faceplant (who are now the lumbering old fools).
JHZR2
Staff member
Logical, isn’t it?!?
Its simply proof that their is still way too much liquidity in the market. Even if somehow there was rational trading justification for these kind of swings, there traditionally would not be enough free cash in the market to facilitate this for a stock of this size. Even today's intraday swings represented like $120B in market cap.
I guess the after hours guys on Friday were right - because that's pretty much where it ended today.
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