*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
RE supply chain breakdowns - I'm seeing a sad pattern. Activities in the past decade have tipped many companies to start taking business out of China and other typical cheap labor countries. The disturbing thing is they're now pushing manufacturing to places like India more than they're moving to EU and USA. It's like they were driving a 150k mile beater and traded up to a 95k mile beater. In two years they'll have another 150k mile beater.
There are China based mfg moving to the US, but as long as there is a large chunk of mfg based in unreliable countries the entire chain is at risk of what is happening now, and worse.
I tend to agree, but offshoring manufacturing is not the primary driver of the current supply chain problems.
The good news is, Semiconductor Manufacturing is being pushed to onshore and smart companies like Ford are moving away from outsourcing towards vertical integration, ala Tesla.
It is the major contributor in my industry which pretty much feeds most others. This started way before chips and covid when China began shutting down plants that were deemed polluters. Almost "overnight" as they say, they went from a free for all to environmental hard@sses. Big chunks of capacity for base feedstocks got permanently removed.
We need ‘important’ manufacturing here in the USA and not be at the mercy of other countries.
Cheap unimportant crap bought at Walmart….. keep that manufacturing overseas.
I doubt a big fast ralley, but maybe a reactionary short term bounce up. If consumer spending slows down some due to increased interest rates, and as the supply chain tries to catch up, then maybe some slow market growth will kick in. In rhis crazy economy, anything could happen.
Maybe the interest rate increase will slow down mainly major big item loans and spending (houses, cars, boats, luxury items, etc), and cause people to use their money mainly for paying continued inflationary costs of items needed to live (gas, food, utilities, etc). Those prices may never come down much because people need certain necessities to live. Price goudging in the name/excuse of "inflation" is also real to some degree IMO.
If people keep paying the price, the price will never come down much if any, as sellers keep raking in more profits even though their costs may drop. Only compitition and lack of demand can help drive down prices again once the inflation monster is contained. Only time prices really come down much is when people stop buying, but if the seller can't survive selling enough volume cheaper, then they may eventually go out of business. It's all a big balancing act, which seems to be easily upset these days, and the biggest ripple effects are far reaching - like the impact of ever increasing fuel costs.
Why ?
Slow Economy/Demand and maybe profit taking after a big run-up. Also noticed a few of the Big US Electric Utility Companys had a bad week. DTE, CMS , DUK.
Folks are spending less at casinos and many now realize they need that money for necessities and not gambling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/17/casino-stocks-take-a-hit-as-inflation-rocks-economy.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/17/casino-stocks-take-a-hit-as-inflation-rocks-economy.html
That's interesting....I remember one recession where Casino stocks did good while the Stock Market was crashing. I guess the money has to go somewhere.
JHZR2
Staff member
I was thinking to sell a decent stake in xom the other day. Bought a lot at Covid 2020 lows.
Oh well. I’ll just enjoy the Div reinvestment for now.
But looking for other opinions.
Oh well. I’ll just enjoy the Div reinvestment for now.
But looking for other opinions.
Maybe with summer 4th July driving season beginning you’ll get a chance to sell again. I bought a very nice stake in VDE when oil went negative in 2020.
President might have overseas trip to Middle East to ask for more oil….
I have been trading some inverse ETFs and made a little money YTD.
President might have overseas trip to Middle East to ask for more oil….
I have been trading some inverse ETFs and made a little money YTD.
Owen Lucas
$100 Site Donor 2023
- Joined
- Sep 5, 2021
- Messages
- 3,605
I can see prices increasing towards the fall when the SPR stops deliveries in October. The possibility of reduced output (to punish Europe) from Russia will help increase barrel prices as well.
Of course a lot can happen between now and then, maybe the SPR will be extended, it might be another catalyst to look into.
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