Whats infression?
Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
- Start date
Off and on inflation during a recession that makes the fed not knowing to poop or get off the pot.
And the press either thinks it's all rosy or consumers have too much debt.
Economy is in flux and trying to settle back to "normal" ... whatever that is, lol.
Your likely correct long term - inflation will go up and down - that's what happened in the 70's. CPI roamed back and forth between 3 and 11% throughout the 70's peaking in the early 80's.
I also agree the fed doesn't have a clue what to do, but that's not new. There the worst forecasters in the history of that trade.
However to date the fed has been pretty consistent - they raised rates every meeting till the last.
Inflation has been pretty consistant as well - if you look past headline which includes food and fuel which have little to do with interest rates - there geopolitical and weather driven. So any other mark - core CPI, Median CPI, trimmed CPI all have been consistently going up and maybe very recently started to taper.
What comes next? More inflation? Recession? Black swan? Soft landing? No Landing?
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The Fed is doing what they should but the Federal government keeps spending money like Niagara Falls. There will be a reckoning.
Government spending is 37% of GDP. It was much higher in the pandemic. GDP growth is what, a few percentage points. If the government cuts much we will be in a technical recession. So they can't - and wouldn't anyway.
The fed has multiple conflicting mandates. There supposed to maintain a stable currency. There supposed to maintain employment levels. Its not written down but they need to keep the place liquid enough to fund government debt and they know it.
Which is why there next move is so difficult to predict.
The latest jobs report is not impressive. What is even more concerning are the downward revisions to the reports for the prior months. The original numbers were grossly overstated. April for example reported new jobs over 290,000 but the revision took 77,000 off of that. That’s a huge miss. May wasn’t much better.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/jobs-report-june-2023-.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/jobs-report-june-2023-.html
Can I just add: not buying extended warranties on anything?
About 100% return on that money saved…
About 100% return on that money saved…
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5 of the 9 mutual funds in one of my 401k's are doing 25-30% for the first 6 months of the year.
I think I'm going to put it all in cash next week. The other 4 have done 10, 12.5, 13 and 17%.
I think I'm going to put it all in cash next week. The other 4 have done 10, 12.5, 13 and 17%.
Lots of fuzzy math, few people even care the data is always manipulated.
Seriously? The unemployment rate is at 3.4%. I'd say that speaks on it's own.
3.4% because millions of working aged adults no longer being counted or not wanting to work.
What is it if the people "not wanting to work" are not counted? Guess industry better accelerate the robot takeover since humans are too lazy to work these days, lol.
It will if you know the "offset" ... I have a few like that.ZeeOSix,
Just remember a tire pressure gauge that is off by 10 PSI will never correctly measure the air in tire…..
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