Investing Strategies. What is your move?

[SC Maintenance]

I see those as well, but to buy the zero coupon bonds seems silly. They sell so near par or at par!

"Attention:After market close (After hours, weekends, holidays), the matching results shown are for modeling purposes only, cannot be traded, and no longer reflect actual inventory."

The prices in the AM I will check again. 99.9 and such....

Vs:

All T-bill ie 52 weeks or less are zero coupon. Meaning you buy at a discount and when mature they pay out face value, there is nothing paid along the way. If you go to the other link - at treasury direct - you can see for example the 17 week one I just bought for each $100.00 in face or "par" value - I paid $98.2745. In 17 weeks at maturity they will pay me $100 per, times however much I bought. So my effective interest is $100-98.2745 = $1.7255 or 5.4% APR.

The estimated yield Fidelity shows before is almost always low, but I guess technically on new issues that it could go wherever so maybe they rather under estimate than over? I guess this could bother some people because they never know what there getting, but I have purchased 11 times in denominations between 13 and 52 weeks since April, the 17 week above was my highest yield, my lowest was 5.13% APR on a 17 week in May .

This is for new issue T-bills. I have no idea how the rest of it works.

I watched some videos from this lady before, she does a better job explaining than I could.

 

[Pablo]

I know how T-bills work. That's my point. I'm not paying 99.X is my point.

Thanks. I will shop this AM, haven't checked yet. It's 4:15AM here. Dang cats.

I actually watched her video (last year??)

 

[Pablo]

 

[SC Maintenance]

I know how T-bills work. That's my point. I'm not paying 99.X is my point.

Thanks. I will shop this AM, haven't checked yet. It's 4:15AM here. Dang cats.

I actually watched her video (last year??)

I apologize, I don't know what your saying. I obviously have no horse in the race, so I am not trying to sell you anything.

I paid 98.2745 on a 17 week = 5.4% APR
I paid 95.0152 on a 52 week a couple weeks ago - 5.26%

Both are higher than any of the CD's you listed at 5%. Looks like your doing them in a retirement account so tax free state maybe doesn't matter for you, for me its 7% state income tax also saved on income tax, so my 5.4% is equivalent to a 5.8% CD after tax - for me.

Anyway, works good for me, maybe not for everyone. Happy investing.

 

[Pablo]

I apologize, I don't know what your saying. I obviously have no horse in the race, so I am not trying to sell you anything.

I paid 98.2745 on a 17 week = 5.4% APR
I paid 95.0152 on a 52 week a couple weeks ago - 5.26%

Both are higher than any of the CD's you listed at 5%. Looks like your doing them in a retirement account so tax free state maybe doesn't matter for you, for me its 7% state income tax also saved on income tax, so my 5.4% is equivalent to a 5.8% CD after tax - for me.

Anyway, works good for me, maybe not for everyone. Happy investing.

No worries man. Your posts are awesome.

In my Fido screenshot from yesterday, the CD's are 5.35 and three are 5.30%, to try and find a 5.4% zero is hardly worth the effort, but still I will look. Thanks again.

As a side note, I hold munis in my taxable accounts

Look:

 

[SC Maintenance]

I have looked at muni's. Thats a whole world of exponential complexities. Even with zero income tax it wouldn't seem worth it, even if I could figure it out:

For example - new issues short term (not a lot of those) high rated, are paying like 3 to 4% unless I am reading it wrong.

Resale with short remaining durations do seem better, but now I am sifting through thousands of options.

Sounds like a lot of effort and risk for my limited skill. If I had millions to invest in bonds it would be different. I have a few bucks I am just trying to keep up with inflation for now at least.

The bond guys are always the smartest in the room, and thats not me

 

[Pablo]

Just running a few trial runs. Typical:

 

[Pablo]

 

[Dave Hess]

I still believe rates should be 150 bps higher.

 

[Pablo]

I still believe rates should be 150 bps higher.

Why?

 

[Dave Hess]

*** Correction ***

200 bps higher.

Why ?
Better CD rates.

 

[ZeeOSix]

*** Correction ***

200 bps higher.

Why ?
Better CD rates.

Heck, make it 500 bps then, lol.

 

[Pablo]

*** Correction ***

200 bps higher.

Why ?
Better CD rates.

Fan of inflation.

Not good.

 

[alarmguy]

Nice trading play with Cathie Woods ARK on Tesla. As much as she promotes the company. She takes profits (nothing wrong with that, like bitcoin I wish I had the guts*LOL* then again ) but says something about long term interest.
ARK sold off over 525,000 shares of Tesla this month including over 27,000 shares on Friday.
Just keep in mind how they play the media this was only 2 months ago =
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereks...-rise-for-the-slumping-stock/?sh=b6a097820496

 

[PimTac]

Nice trading play with Cathie Woods ARK on Tesla. As much as she promotes the company. She takes profits (nothing wrong with that, like bitcoin I wish I had the guts*LOL* then again ) but says something about long term interest.
ARK sold off over 525,000 shares of Tesla this month including over 27,000 shares on Friday.
Just keep in mind how they play the media this was only 2 months ago =
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereks...-rise-for-the-slumping-stock/?sh=b6a097820496

I think she bought instead of sold.


Edit: I see that TSLA was 12% of the holdings in this ETF. I wonder if that is before or after the trade?

https://etfdb.com/etf/ARKK/#holdings

 

[alarmguy]

I think she bought instead of sold.

Here, I should have posted the news article first about selling 525,000 shares this month when two months ago in the last link I posted right above ^^^ she was pumping the stock, nothing wrong with playing a stock and the ark fund is not made up of just Tesla. She predicted a 1,100% rise but two months later they are cashing in, again, nothing wrong with that but one must use caution whenever these people speak, in this case to me, it actually looks like she was intentionally pumping the stock price because she got slaughtered in it last year.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/ma...fs-another-7-million-worth-of-shares-unloaded

Some may not know in Oct 2021 the ark funds holdings of Tesla are close to half of what they used to be, 2 months ago pumping the company and this month selling off a significant amount of shares. The only story to my story, (not for you) is for the common person to be wary of such a loud mouth fund manager that seems to contradict what they do? Sold off half their holdings from 10/2021
This is Arks holdings of Tesla = starting 10/15/21 to present (blue line in case its hard to see)

 

[SC Maintenance]

There are lots of people that contend you need fed funds to be above core CPI if you actually want Core CPI to go down, not just flatline. Core CPI remains higher than fed funds.

I personally think they should have raised 25 bps last meeting. I think the "pause" will be perceived as a change in policy, so the meltup will continue. I personally don't think inflation is coming down either way - its structural. Only way it does is a recession and crash. Maybe they agree with me?

FWIW, this mornings T-bill auctions were 13 week at 5.336% and 26 week at 5.445% APR. I did not participate - I will buy 26 week's next week, hence pushing my tax liability out a whole year.

 

[Dave Hess]

Fan of inflation.

Not good.

Do you think / feel the unofficial recession has begun ?

 

[Pablo]

Do you think / feel the unofficial recession has begun ?

In some ways it never went away

We don’t have stagflation we have infression

 

[PimTac]

Apple closes at an all time high and becomes the first $3 Trillion company.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/apple-3-trillion/2023/06/30/id/1125521/


Also, Goldman Sachs is looking to get rid of the Apple Card business. AMEX is a possible suitor.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/gol...cial-products-to-american-express-source.html