Investing Strategies. What is your move?

[Dave Hess]

Jeff,

That was NOT a personal attack on you. Everything is manipulated.

Its just things are very, very bad and you don’t realize our country is on a slippery slope.
In your neck of the woods everything is fine, but in other parts of the country things are very different.

A wave of layoffs in the near future will cause big problems. Big rug pull within the next year.

 

[PimTac]

When we have these bear markets a good idea is to research the new trends and find companies that participate in those trends. It’s easier now because of ETFs where you can buy sectors and different variations of sectors too.

You can find some rough diamonds to put money into when things turn around.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Jeff,

That was NOT a personal attack on you. Everything is manipulated.

Its just things are very, very bad and you don’t realize our country is on a slippery slope.
In your neck of the woods everything is fine, but in other parts of the country things are very different.

A wave of layoffs in the near future will cause big problems. Big rug pull within the next year.

Dave, I did not take your comment as an attack. Not all all, my man. You are a good man and I appreciate all your knowledge.
And I absolutely know I live in a bubble. I try and remember that. Silicon Valley is an incredible money making phenomenon.

As far as manipulated, that is a tough one. Manipulated by whom is the question.
My guess is, some people thing one group is doing the manipulation and others think it is another group.

I think Chairman Powell is a good man.

All good.
Jeff

 

[OilUzer]

Some may consider past week %6-10 upswing a sucker or bear market rally. It may have another %0-10 life ... not trying to time it but I'm pretty much out except some short-term bonds. Was tempted to buy some ETFs last week but suckers ruined it before I can get in. lol and "Sell in May ...", now I'm waiting to see what happens! Been doing ok playing around and some day trading, options, etc. but nothing major as far as portfolio at risk %.

Fed is not done, lots of uncertainties, possibilities for recession , continued inflation or maybe weird kind of stagflation (slowing economy + inflation and maybe minus high unemployment TBD in the future) ...

btw, interesting thread. I need to start reading the 25 pages now!?

 

[ecotourist]

This was an interesting week. As I've said before I'm staying invested, buying a little here and there and following my investments closely from week to week. Pretty much all of my investments were up from last week: Canadian bond funds, Canadian bond ETFs, conservative US stocks, US equity mutual funds, US broad market equity ETFs, conservative Canadian stocks, Canadian equity mutual funds, Canadian equity ETFs, International stocks .... you get the picture. Overall I was up 1.96% this week over last week.

The exceptions: a Canadian based international electric and gas utility, a Canadian based international infrastructure company, and a Canadian pipeline company. All of these particular stocks had been doing fairly well but were down this week.

Is this a bear market rally, or did someone ring a bell at the bottom? You'll have to decide for yourself.

I was actually expecting this downturn to be much worse. And there is still plenty of time for that. But I'll buy a bit more next week.

 

[PandaBear]

I have confidence of the US and world economy in the long term (10 years out), like Jeff said.

I do not think right now is a good bargain to buy until the dust settle. I am already pretty heavy into stock (tech stock to be specific) and I don't see any reason things will grow by a lot in the next 1 year due to supply shortage being the norm. You cannot just use demand and supply to reason with an artificially manipulated market, war, natural disaster, pandemic, etc. You can keep raising price to 10x and you will still have a shortage, just bumping some customers away from another until someone fold and inflation catch up.

For now I am just "diversifying" away from stocks and assets by not buying more, sell some that I think has run its course in the long term, and save some ammo for the downturn so I can bargain hunt a bit. Not really a lot just about 10-20% in assert.

I'm more concerned about the real estate bubble though. WFH culture has shifted a lot of demand from high COL area away to low COL area. People in low COL area will be suffering as will the high COL area people who bought during the peak with unvested stocks and RSU money, if they lose their jobs and have to go from 350K a year to a mere 180K they would be foreclosed.

 

[PimTac]

I’m not a chartist per se but the charts still show the markets in a down trend. We would need 400-500 points up on the S&P before that trend would be broken.

Check out the 1 year and 5 year charts.


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

 

[JeffKeryk]

I’m not a chartist per se but the charts still show the markets in a down trend. We would need 400-500 points up on the S&P before that trend would be broken.

Check out the 1 year and 5 year charts.


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

The S&P 500 is not the same barometer it used to be because it is so top heavy as compared to past years.
I like 5 year views; the longer the better.

The last rough time starting mid 2007 and ran for a few years set the stage for the incredible sustained run we have been experiencing.
Personally, I think it is better to be prepared than to be scared. Long term charts clearly show us downturns are natural occurrences.
I also believe there are times that we need to help each other out; just my 2 cents.

 

[javacontour]

The S&P 500 is not the same barometer it used to be because it is so top heavy as compared to past years.
I like 5 year views; the longer the better.

The last rough time starting mid 2007 and ran for a few years set the stage for the incredible sustained run we have been experiencing.
Personally, I think it is better to be prepared than to be scared. Long term charts clearly show us downturns are natural occurrences.
I also believe there are times that we need to help each other out; just my 2 cents.

The way I look at it, I'm expecting, on average 10% per year from the S&P500. Looking at a close of about $2743 on 31 December 2017, if it closes below 4418 at the end of 2022, the Index has not meet the modest return I planned on over the course of that 5 years.

(If I look at the past 10 years, S&P500 is outperforming my planning value, even with the recent drops.)

Looks like it closed at $4158 on 27 May, so underperforming a bit in a long term view of the past 5 years.

I don't know what it will do between now and the end of the year. I'm simply not too worried. If it goes to zero, we all have problems.

I just don't look every day. I peek in every week or so and usually wish I'd not done so. But then I tried to not look when things were going up at a high rate of speed.

I am glad I'm not retiring today, but I am aggressively in, and hoping to do so, best case 5 years, worst case 7+

But I'm not panicked at the moment.

 

[Pablo]

Just my humble WAG opinion but expectation of any bundled average to be 10% seems lofty.

One area to estimate conservatively and maybe over perform is a way to look at it.

 

[PimTac]

The S&P 500 is not the same barometer it used to be because it is so top heavy as compared to past years.
I like 5 year views; the longer the better.

The last rough time starting mid 2007 and ran for a few years set the stage for the incredible sustained run we have been experiencing.
Personally, I think it is better to be prepared than to be scared. Long term charts clearly show us downturns are natural occurrences.
I also believe there are times that we need to help each other out; just my 2 cents.

Perhaps but one can pull up the 5 year charts of the Nasdaq or Russell 2000 or whichever index you think is diversified and the same trend appears with some differences of course.

Here is a chart of SWTSX (Schwab Total Market Index Fund) as another example.


https://www.schwab.com/research/mutual-funds/quotes/summary/swtsx

 

[kneesahn]

I purchase a broadly diversified mutual fund, automatically, every Monday. Couldn’t even tell you my gains or losses ytd.

 

[99Saturn]

The way I look at it, I'm expecting, on average 10% per year from the S&P500. Looking at a close of about $2743 on 31 December 2017, if it closes below 4418 at the end of 2022, the Index has not meet the modest return I planned on over the course of that 5 years.

(If I look at the past 10 years, S&P500 is outperforming my planning value, even with the recent drops.)

Looks like it closed at $4158 on 27 May, so underperforming a bit in a long term view of the past 5 years.

I don't know what it will do between now and the end of the year. I'm simply not too worried. If it goes to zero, we all have problems.

I just don't look every day. I peek in every week or so and usually wish I'd not done so. But then I tried to not look when things were going up at a high rate of speed.

I am glad I'm not retiring today, but I am aggressively in, and hoping to do so, best case 5 years, worst case 7+

But I'm not panicked at the moment.

Time horizon really matters. If one looks back thru historic returns, plenty of 5 year periods that the S&P didn't yield 10%/year. Shift out to a 30 year window - 9% to 10%+/year is the norm.

 

[javacontour]

Just my humble WAG opinion but expectation of any bundled average to be 10% seems lofty.

One area to estimate conservatively and maybe over perform is a way to look at it.

I believe since 1957 the average return for the S&P500 index is between 10-10.5%, so is it lofty or just the historical average.

Fees are lower, so more of any gains stay in my pocket.

Doesn't mean it will continue. But there is a pretty good history of the long term average being in line with those expectations.

Edited to add, I buy more every couple of weeks so if it's down right now, it's like a Black Friday sale at Macy's.

 

[JeffKeryk]

If you took FAANGM and TSLA out of the market you will see a far different graph.
Google it up, if you wish...

 

[wpod]

The corollary is, worry about not paying taxes.
Paying a ton of taxes is a great problem to have!

Paying taxes sucks big time.

 

[wpod]

Some recently announced inflation numbers. 17.15%. The highest on record since June 1947.


http://www.shadowstats.com/

30 years in the middle east and Afghanistan comes with a cost that has to be paid.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Paying taxes sucks big time.

Try paying over $120K to the Feds... A nice problem to have, lemme tell ya.

 

[javacontour]

Try paying over $120K to the Feds... A nice problem to have, lemme tell ya.

BT;DT Not quite that much, but it might as well have been. Could have purchased a nice rental property for the money paid to Uncle Sam and the State that year.

 

[JeffKeryk]

BT;DT Not quite that much, but it might as well have been. Could have purchased a nice rental property for the money paid to Uncle Sam and the State that year.

Man it takes a lot to make you happy! I love paying taxes! So much better than the other way, BT;DT too...