50 as expected.
I was hoping for 75.
Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
- Start date
I was hoping for 75.
They gave some wimpy vision going forward. The markets might get fooled here.
The Fed could raise the rate 50bp every month for the remainder of the year and it won’t be enough.
Enough for what?
Real inflation is closer to 20% than the 8% reported.
How many things have only gone up 8%?
And it keeps going up.
Posted before supply side inflation not cured by jacking rates. Fools game.
If you rise rates to high too fast, you risk slowing business (raising unemployment and its troubles), which runs on credit.
Then you risk stagflation; a combination of inflation and slowed growth.
The problem is the supply chain, caused by the unmentionable and oil prices.
This is also a normal business cycle, but one excaberated by the unmentionable.
Stay.The.Course. Mr. Powell is a good man.
Then you risk stagflation; a combination of inflation and slowed growth.
The problem is the supply chain, caused by the unmentionable and oil prices.
This is also a normal business cycle, but one excaberated by the unmentionable.
Stay.The.Course. Mr. Powell is a good man.
Stagflation is already at the door.
The big problem here is that the Fed should have been raising rates for many years now to get back up to a normal rate. They could have done it slowly. But having rates near zero for all this time has changed perspectives. A lot of people will squirm if the Fed rate is 3.5-5% which is normal.
You mean I have to pay 7% on my mortgage?
We are at the verge of drastically increasing food and sundry prices due to the high diesel fuel prices. Trucks deliver everything at some point. Farmers use diesel for their machinery. On top of that fertilizer prices are way up. This will have a serious impact.
You raise interesting points, but I have to differ in key areas.
Stagflation is not at the door; the economy is strong. But it is a big risk. Look at the unemployment rate; compaines are crying for people. We are likely in early recession, not stagflation. That's a normal business cycle. You are right about a serious impact, but I disagree with your analysis. I do agree rates have been low for a long time, but again there was a once-in-a-lifetime problem. Now there's war in Europe.
I have said oil prices and trucking industry are a key problem. That's the supply chain. The oil prices are mainly due to oil company profits as opposed to supply problems. This is well documented.
Don't get me wrong, I have zero problem with any company maximizing profits and the wealth of their shareholders. That's their job.
But there are no viable alternatives to oil. The world runs on oil. The Economic term is price elasticity; I have referred to this as well.
I have agreed to avoid political discourse on this forum; I want to avoid doing so. Economics and Business are, of course, tied to the big P. And the Fed is part of our government.
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Powell clearly stated/telegraphed 1 or 2 days before this rate hike, that it would be .50 basis points.
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He has stated the next increase will more than likely be .50 basis points also. He is clearly telegraphing
this to help the markets with some comfort and clarity.
There are many correct answers and incorrect answers within the same replies to threads, I won't comment because I have to type in Ridell's, or dance around the edges to conform with the rules of the site.
Many speak of interest rates, but the biggest factor to the market will be the tapper of liquidity injected into Freddie and Fannie, and the purchase of T bills. Raising the interest rates will not do as much as some believe, unless the F*d goes flat out bonkers. Then it won't be a "Soft Landing" I personally don't think we will have a soft landing, look forward to a choppy market till the F*d goes too far too fast.
Oil is a commodity that is sold around the world, 24/7/365. Demand and availability set the prices. The industry scaled back almost a few years ago now. The stock market analysts have been hammering the table since oil hit $60.00, they predicted $80.00 to possibly $100.00. Diesel is one of the major factors to higher prices, along with too much money chasing too little goods.
One major sector will not back down for some time, "Oil" (Energy) it makes everything cost more money, Oil makes the world go round. I say that Oil will not retreat much is due to the announcement made by many countries across the pond, this change by these Countries very well may cause much higher prices. The energy market I feel is far from a top, there are too many factors that play into the equation.
For now, I own only a couple of high quality, high dividend corporate bonds, and a boat load of very specific Energy stocks, I'm not playing with Any Futures, Options, no puts, and I'm afraid to even sell short date calls, like 7 to 10 days out of the money calls. So, I only own common stock/shares. I don't wish to disclose the amounts of $$$ my accounts have gained the past 2 days, but it's pretty shocking. You also need an Iron stomach. I am not diversified, I would not suggest anyone to take the path I have, but Oil is not done yet. The rest of the market I won't touch with a 10-foot stick.
(Mods, please remove just this reply if you feel I'm stepping over the line. Thank you.)
PimTac & Jeff,
Great thoughtful and insightful posts. Whether it’s stagflation or inflation…. I feel the calm before the big approaching storm and important folks have their blinders on and ignoring things have started to unravel.
KneeGrinder,
Yes oil is very important, if they kill the Keystone XL pipeline then drain oil from the strategic reserves and send it overseas is completely bonkers. Tons of anti crude oil policies will definitely hurt us in the long run.
I also had some very nice days with all the bad news and market swings. Friday I set a new personal 1 day record.
Which energy stock are you buying / trading ?
.
Great thoughtful and insightful posts. Whether it’s stagflation or inflation…. I feel the calm before the big approaching storm and important folks have their blinders on and ignoring things have started to unravel.
KneeGrinder,
Yes oil is very important, if they kill the Keystone XL pipeline then drain oil from the strategic reserves and send it overseas is completely bonkers. Tons of anti crude oil policies will definitely hurt us in the long run.
I also had some very nice days with all the bad news and market swings. Friday I set a new personal 1 day record.
Which energy stock are you buying / trading ?
.
Somewhat of a bit happier ending........
Today I received the remainder of my dividends with NO tax withheld.
DDCCF $570.79
DIC
E € 270.00 EURFrom the German DIC site which is supposedly not to be accessed by USA, CAN and Japan citizens.
"With the first booking, you will receive the Base Dividend Entitlement in the amount
of EUR 0.21 less tax to be paid by the depositary bank to the tax authorities on the
whole dividend entitlement. In a second booking, you will also receive (i) the Cash
Dividend and/or (ii) any Residual Balance which was not sufficient to receive an
integral number of new shares.."
https://www.dic-asset.de/sec/aktien...ile=DIC_202202_Information-Scrip-Dividend.pdf
I know all about it and it can be somewhat mitigated with dynamic spending etc.
I'm well aware of SRR - it's a fact of life, can be mitigated to some extent but usually not without some pain, and it's a bummer if your retirement savings where borderline or squarely inadequate. A down market is always a possibility during active retirement and just like your plan during the accumulation years should factor in bear markets so should your plan during the distribution years.
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More signs of a booming economy?
Worker productivity falls 7.5% for the first quarter of 2022. The largest decline since 1947.
Jobless claims up as well.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/lab...irst-quarter-the-fastest-rate-since-1947.html
Worker productivity falls 7.5% for the first quarter of 2022. The largest decline since 1947.
Jobless claims up as well.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/lab...irst-quarter-the-fastest-rate-since-1947.html
I was wondering about that number..............................
Could be a brighter side to all this.
In 1979 we had the second oil crunch, followed by record inflation and interest rates. After the peak hit in 1982, everything cooled down including oil prices, and the economy boomed. Maybe the situation now will be a replay.
In 1979 we had the second oil crunch, followed by record inflation and interest rates. After the peak hit in 1982, everything cooled down including oil prices, and the economy boomed. Maybe the situation now will be a replay.
Congrats on your tax burden. You are making money! I love paying taxes! Now, how can I get into a higher bracket?
That is because something happened in 1982 that triggered the biggest secular bull market in history.
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