quote:
Originally posted by XS650:
The low rates of the past 4 years are just blips on the radar. Anyone who thinks our deficit spending isn't going to run the rates back up is welcome to buy a large orange suspension bridge just north of San Francisco that I own.
Youre right, rates will go up for sure. However, at this point in my life, at my age, etc., EVERYTHING is going to hurt me... Rising interest rates are bad, home price appreciation is bad, renting is bad, inflation is bad, etc.
The only good is a mass of people forclosing on nice homes that I can buy cheaper...
It costs as much if not more to sit on the sidelines than to get in. But if a good downpayment on a reasonable home in my area is undoable (40-60k saved up short-term!) then Im stuck. If the lowest priced OK homes in areaqs with half-decent school districts are $200k+, whats someone to do? Rent forever until they have the downpayment? In the meantime prices have appreciated, and I end up paying more.
If Im young, understand the risks and have a viable exit strategy, with just in case worst-case mortgage scenario payments that I can afford now, then why not have the option to be able to pay a little less if I want to have an extra thousand dollars one month for something. Im only young and single once... I might as well enjoy it, but not at the cost of waiting on buying the right house. And if the right house is $250k, so be it... If I pay it at what would be the 30 year mortgage monthly payment I havent regressed in any way. And if I pay less, I can enjoy my last couple free years. If I pay more, Im doing even better!
Its absolutely correct to not put faith into unknowns... But if I was to buy a house with a 30-yr payment that I could comfortably afford now, but have the mortgage as an interest-only (with the option to pay more if I wanted to each month), then I could pay at the 30yr rate, I could pay less if say I was to get married and wanted an extra few bucks one month to go on a nice vacation or something, yet still keep flexible.
With a good exit strategy (say mandatory refinance at 7.5%) I wouldnt get too screwed over as far as rates went, and I dont see the downside. Especially if most months I paid it off VERY aggressively.
As I see it, the downside to doing an interest only mortgage is that in 3,5, or 7 years, Id HAVE to refinance, and since everyone knows rates are going to head higher, Id be stuck with a worse rate than if I had a traditional mortgage now.
If I dont use it to buy more house than I can afford, or to leverage the future prospects, than that is the only downside... While the upside is that Id have more discretionary spending money upfront while single and young, to use if I wanted to (my parents made me very frugal for the most part, so I live quite cheaply), and could make full or more than a 30 yr mortgage-sized payment if I desired as well, hopefully allowing me to have a smaller mortgage when i refinance, allowing me to take advantage of super-low short term rates now, and having a smaller mortgage later to keep my total interest payments over the life of all loans hopefully lower.
Of course everyone here has me sold on a conventional loan
. But as was said earlier, on a $50k salary, a $200k home should be able to be paid off in 5-10 years, so why not take advantage of doing that, while on a short-term, lower rate mortgage, and refinance a smaller amount at a higher rate later, and pay it off just as fast, or have the option of a bit more cash on an off month when it could be very useful?
Thanks again,
The devil's advocate