Your cant assume Progressive is going to pull the same "stunt" as Geico did. You have yourself upset before the event happens.
With that said, its no secret I have been preaching in this forum for the last decade (not directed at you in anyway) that I check insurance rates at least two times a year to make sure I am paying the lowest possible cost on insurance.
You are 100% correct as far as some, maybe most insurance companies, the first year, or two or three can be "come on" rates, promotions to get your business then raise the price.
I have noticed this most often with homeowners Insurance and it works out well for me. Why? because I get super cheap rates for the first year, sometimes a few years and when the rate starts going up I switch to another company, anytime, anytime of the year if I find a better rate, its goodbye to the current company. Some people think you switch at the end of a policy, you can switch companies as often as you buy gas at different gas stations, the existing company will send you a refund check for the difference of the remaining time you would have had on the existing policy. I see someone mentioned Travelers Ins. I had their homeowner insurance for a good 4 years of solid cheap rates. In the 16years we owned this home I switched companies at least 5 times on homeowners, and the last 4 years Travelers had them all beat by hundreds and hundreds of dollars, only recently did they start creeping up but no longer a concern because we just sold our house, literally !
I will say, many years back I dumped Geico on all my vehicles because they no longer are the cheapest, not even close anymore. Right now esurance (an Allstate company) has been best for me on cars only.
If it means anything to you, as far as Progressive, I use them for two things and two things only are they the cheapest for me and have been for many, many years. I cant find a better price on our Motorcycle and Boat insurance than I can with Progressive. It's so darn cheap, it's stupid and most of all, Im trying to remember but I think they recently lowered the price a couple percent more.
Any other discussion as far as rates is fruitless, as insurance companies pricing varies by location, credit history, family history, households ect but mentioned companies are always a good place to start. It's sooooooo easy on the internet.
PS. we had severe rate creep with State Farm. That is when I learned (about 15 years ago) loyalty means you will pay more because your risk of switching companies is low and they know that. Between our possessions and another family member and a significant business policy what started off great with State Farm turned out no longer great, except our business ins which we still have them and just the business.
Our combined policies at the time must have been around 10k a year, no more, they lost that part.