How long will all our modern flash memory electronics last?

[y_p_w]

This doesn't neatly fit into any category because this is something that applies to all sorts of things including our appliances, computers, and even cars. I've seen old tube TVs still working after 25 years although often they looked bad and had really bad burn in or poor performance. But they still worked.

We've been talking about flash-based SSD life in the computer forum here on BITOG, and I was under the impression that the last SSD I bought was near 100% but then looked it up and after about 3.5 years of use one tool says it still has 74% of its useful life. But that's not really all that bad if I can get 10 years out of it and where I can proactively duplicate the contents if I wish to still use it.

I'm participate in an Apple forum where there are some complaints that older Apple devices have really poor support. However, that may not be as much a concern than the possibility that something like an iPad is going to be toast within 10 years simply on the basis of the storage (that can't be replaced) wearing out. I use mine for viewing video content where I can make sure that a movie is downloaded rather than actively streaming. But then again that would seem to accumulate more erase events every time I download and then erase when I don't need a movie or run out of storage.

I'm currently driving a car that's over 20 years old and is still working fine, including the radio and all the critical components. I'm not quite sure how long newer cars are going to last with critical components using more and more NAND flash memory for data storage. They store all sorts of information on operation in NAND flash and so much of the systems are really just computers. Maybe this stuff can be replaced, but I'm thinking of it is critical and a lot of the data will be gone unless it's stored in a way that's far more robust than NAND flash. But maybe they're not going the route of consumer electronics with trim-level or quad-level flash, but more robust single-level if they don't really have to store terabytes. Or maybe they might have that for storage of simple stuff like downloading music or video but with more critical systems getting more robust. And they've got to have some sort of warning that would allow for the components to be proactively replaced and the data securely transferred.

Automotive flash – what’s the real lifetime? - Tuxera

Calculating the flash lifetime of a vehicle is crucial for avoiding critical systems failure, yet it’s complex to do. Here’s how to make the process easier.

www.tuxera.com

 

[AuthorEditor]

With computer stuff I like to store important stuff in multiple places: cloud, internal storage, removable backup storage. For the backups I want spinning drives that last longer, but despite its many issues I suspect the cloud is the safest for most ordinary consumers. My stuff there will be available long after I'm gone if someone wants it, assuming the family keeps paying a subscription. Flash memory dieing will obsolete a lot of stuff we use today. Even if you could afford to replace the chips they just won't be available to put something like a car on the road.

 

[97prizm]

This doesn't neatly fit into any category because this is something that applies to all sorts of things including our appliances, computers, and even cars. I've seen old tube TVs still working after 25 years although often they looked bad and had really bad burn in or poor performance. But they still worked.

We've been talking about flash-based SSD life in the computer forum here on BITOG, and I was under the impression that the last SSD I bought was near 100% but then looked it up and after about 3.5 years of use one tool says it still has 74% of its useful life. But that's not really all that bad if I can get 10 years out of it and where I can proactively duplicate the contents if I wish to still use it.

I'm participate in an Apple forum where there are some complaints that older Apple devices have really poor support. However, that may not be as much a concern than the possibility that something like an iPad is going to be toast within 10 years simply on the basis of the storage (that can't be replaced) wearing out. I use mine for viewing video content where I can make sure that a movie is downloaded rather than actively streaming. But then again that would seem to accumulate more erase events every time I download and then erase when I don't need a movie or run out of storage.

I'm currently driving a car that's over 20 years old and is still working fine, including the radio and all the critical components. I'm not quite sure how long newer cars are going to last with critical components using more and more NAND flash memory for data storage. They store all sorts of information on operation in NAND flash and so much of the systems are really just computers. Maybe this stuff can be replaced, but I'm thinking of it is critical and a lot of the data will be gone unless it's stored in a way that's far more robust than NAND flash. But maybe they're not going the route of consumer electronics with trim-level or quad-level flash, but more robust single-level if they don't really have to store terabytes. Or maybe they might have that for storage of simple stuff like downloading music or video but with more critical systems getting more robust. And they've got to have some sort of warning that would allow for the components to be proactively replaced and the data securely transferred.

Automotive flash – what’s the real lifetime? - Tuxera

Calculating the flash lifetime of a vehicle is crucial for avoiding critical systems failure, yet it’s complex to do. Here’s how to make the process easier.

www.tuxera.com

Tesla Asked to Recall 158,000 Vehicles Over Flash Memory Failure​

An issue with Model S and Model X flash memory storage can cause the media control unit to fail.
Tesla already has started the trend. This was two years ago not likely to be fixed anytime soon.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I thought ECU's and such still used EEPROM - not flash? The Tesla thing above sounds like the infotainment.

Not sure about the newer, smaller EEPROM's, but in the industrial world there are lots of things with EEPROM that are 30 years old and still working.

As for the infotainment in these new cars, my best guess is there all mostly dead in a decade - just like other consumer electronics.

 

[Cujet]

Without excess read-write cycles, the memory storage remains intact as long as each capacitor retains it's charge. On the newest stuff, it is possible the lifespan may be shorter. The general expectation is a 10 year lifespan, but capacitor self discharge is a real thing, and how the memory is stored really does matter. Extreme temperatures and temp swings do reduce lifespan, for example.

 

[flash7210]

Whether it be corrosion, power surges, or cosmic particles, all electronics die eventually.
Either stock up on replacements or hope the aftermarket will provide a solution.
I've got a points-type distributor and carburetor that still work

Did your computer crash? It might have been a cosmic ray

Cosmic rays are known to cause "soft errors" in computers. These occasionally cause your computer to crash.

bigthink.com

 

[Skippy722]

Entirely depends on how hard they’re slamming the flash with writes. In the case of Tesla, they were hitting it HARD writing debug info to it, which subsequently wore it out in short order. I do know Chryslers UConnect 8.4” models had 4gb of SLC flash and 8gb of MLC, those seem to hold up relatively well.

The ECU and various other modules still rely far more on ROM and RAM, hence why disconnecting the battery “resets” codes.

 

[John105]

I know that personally I have never had a hard drive fail. Just this week I fired up my 2001 Dell tower to copy audio cds. It still had E92 M3 wallpaper from 2007 (rows and rows of M3 coupes). That’s 22 years. I’d expect a SSD to fair better, unless its supporting electronics were to fail.

I’m curious what would happen if I played a 1987 cassette? My over under says there would be music. What about a 1984 cassette deck (HK with 20-20) or a 1981 Akai receiver? They are in the attic…

 

[flash7210]

I know that personally I have never had a hard drive fail. Just this week I fired up my 2001 Dell tower to copy audio cds. It still had E92 M3 wallpaper from 2007 (rows and rows of M3 coupes). That’s 22 years. I’d expect a SSD to fair better, unless its supporting electronics were to fail.

I’m curious what would happen if I played a 1987 cassette? My over under says there would be music. What about a 1984 cassette deck (HK with 20-20) or a 1981 Akai receiver? They are in the attic…

For long term data storage magnetic tape is still the best

 

[y_p_w]

I know that personally I have never had a hard drive fail. Just this week I fired up my 2001 Dell tower to copy audio cds. It still had E92 M3 wallpaper from 2007 (rows and rows of M3 coupes). That’s 22 years. I’d expect a SSD to fair better, unless its supporting electronics were to fail.

I’m curious what would happen if I played a 1987 cassette? My over under says there would be music. What about a 1984 cassette deck (HK with 20-20) or a 1981 Akai receiver? They are in the attic…

Electrolytic capacitors could theoretically dry out in storage, but it might be possible to replace them. I’ve opened up laptop computers and haven’t seen a single electrolytic cap.

I’ve heard of analog reel to reel master tape that was pulled out of storage and there was a problem with the recording medium shedding off. Some experimented with heating tapes in an oven first, like Mobile Fidelity Sound Lab. Apparently the Library of Congress has a lot of archival recordings that they’re trying to maintain or at least re-record. The signal might not fade per se, but the binder might fall apart.

Magnetic Tape “Sticky Shed” Research: Characterization, Diagnosis, and Treatment - Research Projects - Preservation Science (Preservation, Library of Congress)

The Library of Congress Conservation and Preservation Research & Testing Divisions are conducting research to resolve uncertainties about sticky shed syndrome (also called “sticktion”), a ubiquitous preservation challenge for recorded sound and moving images on magnetic tape. In sticky shed...

www.loc.gov

Speaking of Mobile Fidelity, they claimed that their gold plated CDs would last near forever, although I still have aluminum CDs from the 80s that still work. I think.

 

[y_p_w]

For long term data storage magnetic tape is still the best

 

[John105]

Electrolytic capacitors could theoretically dry out in storage, but it might be possible to replace them. I’ve opened up laptop computers and haven’t seen a single electrolytic cap.

I’ve heard of analog reel to reel master tape that was pulled out of storage and there was a problem with the recording medium shedding off. Some experimented with heating tapes in an oven first, like Mobile Fidelity Sound Lab. Apparently the Library of Congress has a lot of archival recordings that they’re trying to maintain or at least re-record. The signal might not fade per se, but the binder might fall apart.

Magnetic Tape “Sticky Shed” Research: Characterization, Diagnosis, and Treatment - Research Projects - Preservation Science (Preservation, Library of Congress)

The Library of Congress Conservation and Preservation Research & Testing Divisions are conducting research to resolve uncertainties about sticky shed syndrome (also called “sticktion”), a ubiquitous preservation challenge for recorded sound and moving images on magnetic tape. In sticky shed...

www.loc.gov

Speaking of Mobile Fidelity, they claimed that their gold plated CDs would last near forever, although I still have aluminum CDs from the 80s that still work. I think.

What do you think…today, I’m sure every performer has audio and video captured, of every performance.

There are some who did that back to the 60’s and 70’s. Does that make their recordings somehow special?

In some crazy way, imho it illustrates human nature. The vast majority do things when it’s easy, not a chore.

 

[dishdude]

Electrolytic capacitors

This and solder joints are my biggest concern for points of failure. Flash memory seems to be very reliable.

 

[y_p_w]

This and solder joints are my biggest concern for points of failure. Flash memory seems to be very reliable.

There's always a concern with anything with a "floating gate". It's all about trapping electrons inside an insulator where the concentration of electrons determines certain electrical properties. Any time it's erased to release the electrons, it damages the insulator a little bit. That's basically what "endurance" is.

Back when there were windowed EPROMs, the erase was done with a UV lamp. I remember using one that included a mechanical timer. But I've seen plenty of old BIOS EPROMs that had a sticker over the window as well as some one time programmable PROMs that were pretty much the same but without the costly window.

Modern quad-level cell flash has really poor endurance, where it reduces costs. It's expected to last maybe 500 erase cycles.

But there is a different between something like an SSD that can be cloned and replaced vs something that's fixed to the device. That's my biggest worry. My TV is something that I figure I can replace. But I'm wondering about the systems in a car and how tolerant they might be of critical systems simply aging out.

I do remember The Hitchhiker's Guide the the Galaxy series where there was some artificial life form that supposedly existed for several times the age of the universe through time travel and replacement of parts. I think it was explained that it didn't have a single original part and it was in pretty bad shape at the time the universe ended.

 

[PandaBear]

Tesla Asked to Recall 158,000 Vehicles Over Flash Memory Failure​

An issue with Model S and Model X flash memory storage can cause the media control unit to fail.
Tesla already has started the trend. This was two years ago not likely to be fixed anytime soon.

Oh I remember this one. They just "blame" the flash memory but everyone in the industry knows Tesla screwed up instead.

They put the log and the firmware on the same chip and they are soldered on, and the logging wear out the flash and the car can't boot up despite the chip is then in read only mode.

This is what happens when someone who knows just enough to be dangerous write the firmware. I'd trust the guy in Denso better than Tesla on this; their architecture is likely evolved over 20 years and anything that can go wrong has gone wrong already.

 

[PandaBear]

Without excess read-write cycles, the memory storage remains intact as long as each capacitor retains it's charge. On the newest stuff, it is possible the lifespan may be shorter. The general expectation is a 10 year lifespan, but capacitor self discharge is a real thing, and how the memory is stored really does matter. Extreme temperatures and temp swings do reduce lifespan, for example.

They do self discharge and regularly refreshed in the background as long as it is powered on at least once a year in room-temp, maybe once a month in hot temperature like the car.

Most things automotive are graded for higher temperature and they do test for harsh environment, I'd trust the final product's rating instead of the general spec for home computer or data center.

 

[MolaKule]

EEPROM, or electrically erasable programmable read-only memories, are supposed to be good for over 100,000 cycles. The only known detriments are Gamma ray radiation which is why I wrap my Thumb Drives in about three layers of aluminum foil when travelling by plane.

See:

Radiation Effects in Advanced and Emerging Nonvolatile Memories
Matthew J. Marinella, Sandia National Laboratories, USA
especially section 2.

available online.

 

[y_p_w]

EEPROM, or electrically erasable programmable read-only memories, are supposed to be good for over 100,000 cycles. The only known detriments are Gamma ray radiation which is why I wrap my Thumb Drives in about three layers of aluminum foil when travelling by plane.

See:

Radiation Effects in Advanced and Emerging Nonvolatile Memories
Matthew J. Marinella, Sandia National Laboratories, USA
especially section 2.

available online.

They were really just the evolution of the windowed EPROM that were erased via exposure to UV. But I suppose erase can't necessarily be quantified since exposure times vary and that's specifically damaging the insulator every time.

Even then, typical SLC NAND flash memory was rated at 100,000 cycles. Not sure what it is now with 3D stacking and smaller semiconductor processes.

Also - any kind of traditional ROM/PROM was pretty simple and very fast. Address in drove data out. I remember for one class project we were allowed to use EPROMs (or even non-windowed PROMs) as logic replacement. But NAND flash is way different where it's far more complicated that address in producing data out.

Still - I remember hearing that for EPROMs that a programmed part wouldn't be expected to last longer than 10-12 years in storage because the charge in the floating gate would leak out the insulator. That's not a problem per se with NAND flash that's used often since they would have some sort of controller that would periodically move data around to get around that.

 

[brianl703]

Still - I remember hearing that for EPROMs that a programmed part wouldn't be expected to last longer than 10-12 years in storage

In practice they've lasted much longer than that. I've seen YT videos of vintage computers from the 1980s where the EPROMs are still good.

 

[y_p_w]

In practice they've lasted much longer than that. I've seen YT videos of vintage computers from the 1980s where the EPROMs are still good.

There are others that have died too. The biggest issue is likely with manufacturing variances.

It wasn't terribly convenient to refresh and EPROM. I remember seeing some people who had systems that copied over Atari 2600 cartridges onto EPROMS. But Atari and most of their manufacturers used cheaper mask ROMs.