From what I understand the Northeast part of the US has seen the largest increase in average winter temperatures at 4.7F.
Last 3 years we’ve had little snow. I’m not a winter person at all but I wouldn’t mind a blizzard this year.
This was 2009. My 05 Accord buried.
@bbhero curious what your thoughts are for this upcoming winter.
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The GFS computer model is between 80-85 percent accurate at the 6-10 day time frame with the long wave jetstream pattern.
Around 2 weeks the GFS is 50 percent accurate.
That’s the long wave pattern… Which is helpful to a good degree. However… the smaller details like upper level vorticity in the jetstream can cause quite a change in perceived and sensible weather to us all. Take for example a strong arctic front passes southeast and pushes off the Atlantic coastline … Then a upper level vorticity is dropping aouthward into the Gulf of Mexico about the same time… A surface low pressure starts to form southeast of that upper level vorticity and undergo cyclogenesis south of say Mobile Alabama… That developing low pressure moves northeast along the dragging arctic front and a new area of low pressure starts to form off the coast of NC southeast of Wilmington NC… That system rapidly intensifies as the upper level vorticity catches up with the developing coastal low pressure over the Gulf Stream.. Then it is on from there… All up and down the east coast.
That say versus a strong arctic front passes off the Atlantic coastline and there are no upper level systems in the polar jetstream… The result is all quiet and very cold with broad sunshine everywhere along and east of the Mississippi.
Huge, huge difference there in sensible weather along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coastline and the Appalachian mountains and all the big cities along interstate 95.
I don’t pay much mind to 3-4 month forecasts.
I remember the winter of 2009-2010 and they were saying warm, lot of rain in the mid Atlantic region…
Well the NAO aka the North Atlantic Oscillation turned negative in early December 2009 and the PNA aka Pacific North American pattern turned positive at that same time frame… And then a very strong winter storm hit around December 18-20th…
And that pattern continued most of the time for the next 4 months… Culminating in 2 massive snowstorms hitting mid Atlantic in February 2010. With as much as 66 inches of snow being on the ground just west and south of Baltimore Maryland…
My area had the snowiest winter since 2002-03.
The forecast was right about the active southern jetstream… But was way off in the NAO and PNA patterns… Therefore leading to a cold, active and snowy 2009-2010 winter season.