The purpose of GTL plants is to monetize stranded gas reserves where shipping or piping the gas is impractical. The driving output is fuel, and base oils are basically a minor co-product, so the economics are driven by the fuel.
A number of GTL projects have been delayed or abandoned in recent years due to rising cost estimates, and conventional Group IIIs have capitalized on these delays by rapidly increasing production. The greater availability of conventional Group IIIs, along with their time advantage with respect to approvals, puts GTL base oils at an increasing disadvantage, and their future is questionable. Future GTL projects will have to be justified by the fuel sales.
Tom NJ