First new nuclear power plant since NRC Part 52 was issued gets its license - Vogtle is going live

[OVERKILL]

When the NRC was formed (replacing the AEC) in 1975, overhauls were made to the regulation process. While it has, multiple times, been accused of "industry capture", since 1989, when Part 52 was imposed, it has not granted a single new operating license.

However, on August 3rd, 2022, an operating license was granted to Vogtle Unit 3, signalling the bringing to a close of a project that has been billions over budget and years behind schedule. Though this is not surprising for the first nuclear power plant to be constructed in the US in 30 years. Similar delays and cost overruns have happened with hydro projects here in Canada, such as BC's Site C dam and Muskrat Falls in Labrador.

Will be interesting to see the emissions reduction once these units enter operation, as they will add ~2,240MW of nuclear capacity, bringing total capacity to 8,134MW, which should displace the same amount of coal. Lots of room for improvement here:

 

[LenZee]

Would be nice to see units of this rating going live every year.
Never going to happen though.

 

[Alien]

Although getting to this point for the new Vogtle plants is a success, it is unlikely to inspire other utilities to copy it. Vogtle 3 is one of four identical nuclear plants whose construction started in 2007: Vogtle 4 at the same site, and two plants at the V.C. Summers site in South Carolina. The general contractor for all four plants was Toshiba-owned Westinghouse, which went bankrupt in 2017. Georgia Power decided to continue on with construction of the Vogtle plants with a new general contractor (Bechtel), while construction on the two SC sites was abandoned. The main utility behind the SC reactors was forced into selling out to another utility, the senior management team was fired and is currently under investigation for criminal wrongdoing. In Georgia, where the costs are now estimated to be around twice what was originally estimated, two of the partners are suing Georgia Power for cost overruns. Further reading:

https://apnews.com/article/business...rgia-atlanta-7555f8d73c46f0e5513c15d391409aa3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nukegate_scandal

 

[OVERKILL]

Although getting to this point for the new Vogtle plants is a success, it is unlikely to inspire other utilities to copy it. Vogtle 3 is one of four identical nuclear plants whose construction started in 2007: Vogtle 4 at the same site, and two plants at the V.C. Summers site in South Carolina. The general contractor for all four plants was Toshiba-owned Westinghouse, which went bankrupt in 2017. Georgia Power decided to continue on with construction of the Vogtle plants with a new general contractor (Bechtel), while construction on the two SC sites was abandoned. The main utility behind the SC reactors was forced into selling out to another utility, the senior management team was fired and is currently under investigation for criminal wrongdoing. In Georgia, where the costs are now estimated to be around twice what was originally estimated, two of the partners are suing Georgia Power for cost overruns. Further reading:

https://apnews.com/article/business...rgia-atlanta-7555f8d73c46f0e5513c15d391409aa3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nukegate_scandal

Worth noting is that despite the cost overruns, the actual cost of power from the plant will be relatively inexpensive. Also, while Vogtle 3/4 have had massive delays and cost overruns, it is not the first pair of AP1000's to enter commercial operation.

There have been four AP1000's built in China, 2-units at Sanman came online in 2018, and were 9 years shovel to breaker, while Haiyang units were 9 and 8 years respectively, also coming online in 2018. China is also using the waste heat from these units for district heating. The Westinghouse bankruptcy stalled construction of the 8 additional units that were supposed to be constructed and right now, two of them are on pause, while two more were replaced by China's indigenous Hualong One reactor, which is more similar to the French EPR (a design that has also experienced cost overruns and delays outside of China, just like every large infrastructure project in the West it would seem).

The AP1000 is a very good, albeit, possibly overly complex, design. Ideally, the logical move here would be to resurrect the VC Summer project and complete the units there, now that there's a trained and competent workforce, but that's unfortunately unlikely.

 

[Alien]

Thanks for filling in more details - very interesting. Good point about the trained and competent workforce being available to complete the VC Summer reactors. I suspected all along the Dominion (the acquiring utility) was viewing the two half-completed reactors as something they could complete in the future once the dust has settled. We'll see ...

 

[Al]

I would have bet that it would never go commercial. At that cost it will never be able to remotely repay its cost...talk about dumb.scheesch

 

[OVERKILL]

Thanks for filling in more details - very interesting. Good point about the trained and competent workforce being available to complete the VC Summer reactors. I suspected all along the Dominion (the acquiring utility) was viewing the two half-completed reactors as something they could complete in the future once the dust has settled. We'll see ...

We are trying to capitalize on the same thing (established supply chain, experienced and competent workforce...etc) as part of our push to get Pickering B refurbished here in Ontario. The refurbishment of Darlington should be winding-up in 2026, which would be a perfect time to start on the Pickering B units.

 

[FZ1]

When the NRC was formed (replacing the AEC) in 1975, overhauls were made to the regulation process. While it has, multiple times, been accused of "industry capture", since 1989, when Part 52 was imposed, it has not granted a single new operating license.

However, on August 3rd, 2022, an operating license was granted to Vogtle Unit 3, signalling the bringing to a close of a project that has been billions over budget and years behind schedule. Though this is not surprising for the first nuclear power plant to be constructed in the US in 30 years. Similar delays and cost overruns have happened with hydro projects here in Canada, such as BC's Site C dam and Muskrat Falls in Labrador.

View attachment 111116

View attachment 111117


Will be interesting to see the emissions reduction once these units enter operation, as they will add ~2,240MW of nuclear capacity, bringing total capacity to 8,134MW, which should displace the same amount of coal. Lots of room for improvement here:
View attachment 111119

'Bout time for a NPP to go online. Can't replace fossil fuel Power with wind and I ain't payin' no money to China for solar stuff. Bring those China jobs to Mexico and keep the wealth and security on this continent.

 

[OVERKILL]

I would have bet that it would never go commercial. At that cost it will never be able to remotely repay its cost...talk about dumb.scheesch

Al, I highly encourage you to run the math, it's actually not as bad as one might assume at first blush, despite the insane CAPEX.

- Let's say the capital cost is $30.34 billion as per the link that @Alien posted.
- Let's assume a planned payback period of 20 years.
- Let's assume an annual borrowing cost of 3%

We know nuke OPEX is low. If Diablo Canyon is $0.034/kWh, I suspect Vogtle will be much less, having fewer staff, so we'll say it's $0.030/kWh. So, if we make up a simplistic calculator in Excel that starts with $30.34 billion owed, add interest at 3% per year and assume a fixed CF of 94% and fixed OPEX of $0.03/kWh, the plant would pay for itself in 20 years with an all-in rate of $0.14/kWh.

Now, typically, these costs are not borne just by the units that have been built if there are other units at the site. So, for example, the $12 billion for the Darlington refurb here in Ontario is being spread across not only the 4 units at Darlington, but also the 6 units at Pickering, which dramatically reduces the per kWh rate. If the CAPEX for Vogtle 3/4 is spread across 1/2 as well, the overall rate for the site is much lower.