Electronics Service Life

[RayCJ]

The thread about average vehicle age https://www.bobistheoilguy.com/foru...icle-age-sets-a-record-at-11-8-years-old has got me wondering what's going to happen when all the fancy "infotainment" modules start going bad. Likewise for all the incredibly complex engine control modules...

Complex electronic systems are typically designed with a particular service life in-mind. 15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).

Engines and most non-CVT transmissions are lasting 200k+. Where is this all going? Are we headed toward "disposable" cars? What will the supply chain situation look like > 15 or 20 years from now?

Thoughts???

Ray

 

[Virtus_Probi]

There is a huge difference between the electronics that run a car and infotainment electronics.
Car makers are going to jump down suppliers' throats about any kind of reliability issues, but any mission critical electronics are going to be designed for a wider temperature range and to a much higher degree of fault tolerance/redundancy than the electronics the car can function without...are they are tested obsessively at temp and performance extremes, winter and summer testing were critical milestones in the engine control electronics developments in which I took part.
I also got involved in debugging and solving an unpredictable, intermittent issue in some infotainment electronics that I hadn't designed (original designer had left)...it was a nightmare and the customers were livid, but there were no recalls involved. If this issue had come up in engine control electronics, no question recalls would have been necessary.
It sucks when your screen goes blank in your car or you can't listen to music, but at least you can drive it somewhere to get it fixed.

Subaru has never been known for having great convenience electronics and the touch screen in my 5 year old car is starting to fail. Maps for nav are on an SD card...doesn't that seem positively antique?!?!? Not inclined to replace the unit but I guess I will have to watch how it continues to degrade and decide how important that screen is to me....would be nice to have a more modern nav, no way in heck I would even think about another OEM unit.

 

[Dave Sherman]

I work on electronic engine controls that have to work in harsh environments. Problems I usually see are ESD damage, or faulty solder joints that may have worked initially, but after some time they opened up. The boards are coated with conformal coating that seals out moisture, so they are reasonably well protected from the elements. My last Traverse had the odometer display fail, and I'm certain it was a bad solder joint, but I couldn't get to where it was probably located without desoldering the 40+ pins on the display. The dealer could only replace the whole instrument cluster for about $600. Our techs absolutely hate the lead-free solder, it takes more heat to reflow and doesn't seem to bond as well.

I fear there are many service techs who only have a faint grasp of electronics and electrical troubleshooting. Once had to take the Traverse in for gettng the faulty power mirror fixed. After 2 days the tech somehow determined the wiring between the body control module and the mirror switch was at fault; most interesting because I had the service manuals and the BCM had no control over the power mirrors at all. I took it home and had it diagnosed in 20 minutes with a 9 volt battery and some clip leads: Bad mirror switch which caused the fuse to blow, $10 on Amazon.

It will be interesting to see how well those fancy color displays hold up in the long term after going through years of freezing winters and hot summers.

 

[skyactiv]

There will be a few bussiness that specilize in repairing them. The sad reality is that the infotainment systems used in vehciles have slow, low end processing
of a cheap tablet you wouldn't cry over if you dropped and cracked the screen.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Yes,

Consumer electronics has been the front runner in terms of consumer demand for a couple of decades now. This market is one of continual replacement with the latest and greatest technology. Younger generations have been conditioned to this sort of model. Due to the high capital costs associated with automobile manufacturing I envision player consolidation and the continual expansion of the subscription based ownership experience along with electric motors being the predominate method for propulsion in the consumer market.. A used market may/may not develop out of that. I just depends on whether the outgoing model is worth more than the materials it's made of.


This reminds me of a quote from a well respected BMW tech guru Mike Miller who paraphrased a discussion he had with a BMW executive regarding the service life of today's 4-cylinder engines. The executive essentially admitted that 4-cylinder engines today are not built with extreme longevity in mind but their engines are still more durable than the competition.

 

[Fawteen]

That's the same question I've heard over and over in the past.

Tube radios in vintage cars also failed.
Transistorized radios in the 1980s cars also failed.
Points failed.
Condensers failed.
Some early electronics failed.

I've put lots of miles on vehicles with both modern electronics and vintage vehicles without modern electronics. Will there be failures? Yup. Will there be lots of failures? If you only use the internet as your source of information, then yes. But then all the people who have them and never have a problem never complain on the internet. And you won't here about all of the vehicles that never have a problem, which is usually the majority.

 

[sloinker]

Back in the discrete component days, capacitors failed with age and use. Nowadays everything is IC's and surface mount. It stands to reason that capacitor's would still fail with use and age. Solder joints and mechanical issues are different.

 

[Lolvoguy]

Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl

This reminds me of a quote from a well respected BMW tech guru Mike Miller who paraphrased a discussion he had with a BMW executive regarding the service life of today's 4-cylinder engines. The executive essentially admitted that 4-cylinder engines today are not built with extreme longevity in mind but their engines are still more durable than the competition.


The 4 cyl engine was never intended to offer longevity (including naturally aspirated versions).
The widespread use of them with additional stressors such as DI and turbo/Supercharging just adds to the mix that will cause early failures, regardless of advancements in lubrication/cooling technology.

In regards to the OP's question, many cars "infotainment systems" are linked to other aspects of the car, namely the climate system.
Since the aftermarket audio companies are not offering replacements for these applications, owners with these vehicles will have to resort to going to the dealer for a replacement (if the system is still being offered).
And when the dealers stop doing that, well I suppose it's time to trade up to something new(er).

 

[nthach]

Originally Posted by skyactiv
There will be a few bussiness that specilize in repairing them. The sad reality is that the infotainment systems used in vehciles have slow, low end processing
of a cheap tablet you wouldn't cry over if you dropped and cracked the screen.


Well, unless that car is an Audi, Mercedes(with the new MBUX system that takes care of both infotainment and instrumentation), or a Tesla. Those cars use either an COTS NVidia SOC(Tegra series) with pretty good processing/graphical power or something with the same computing power as a modern laptop.

However, the CPUs/MCUs controlling the powertrain in a modern car isn't too far detached from a pre-Intel Mac, unless it's using Denso or Hitachi(Toyota/Nissan/Subaru) controls, in which case there's some roots shared with a Sega Saturn/Genesis, Super Nintendo/N64 or a PS2/PS3.

 

[atikovi]

Originally Posted by RayCJ
15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).


15? I thought electronics with the absence of any moving parts to wear out, would last hundreds of years. Isn't some spacecraft launched over 40 years ago and now at the edge of the solar system, still sending back signals?

 

[WhizkidTN]

Originally Posted by Dave Sherman
I work on electronic engine controls that have to work in harsh environments. Problems I usually see are ESD damage, or faulty solder joints that may have worked initially, but after some time they opened up. The boards are coated with conformal coating that seals out moisture, so they are reasonably well protected from the elements. My last Traverse had the odometer display fail, and I'm certain it was a bad solder joint, but I couldn't get to where it was probably located without desoldering the 40+ pins on the display. The dealer could only replace the whole instrument cluster for about $600. Our techs absolutely hate the lead-free solder, it takes more heat to reflow and doesn't seem to bond as well.

I fear there are many service techs who only have a faint grasp of electronics and electrical troubleshooting. Once had to take the Traverse in for gettng the faulty power mirror fixed. After 2 days the tech somehow determined the wiring between the body control module and the mirror switch was at fault; most interesting because I had the service manuals and the BCM had no control over the power mirrors at all. I took it home and had it diagnosed in 20 minutes with a 9 volt battery and some clip leads: Bad mirror switch which caused the fuse to blow, $10 on Amazon.

It will be interesting to see how well those fancy color displays hold up in the long term after going through years of freezing winters and hot summers.


I design medical electronics for a living. Biggest issue I see with my own personal electronics of late (automotive and appliance) is poor soldering joints (blame RoHS for that since it shows up on heat cycling on my car) and ESD damage (appliance module on frig due to NO protection on the circuit board).

 

[WhizkidTN]

Originally Posted by atikovi
Originally Posted by RayCJ
15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).


15? I thought electronics with the absence of any moving parts to wear out, would last hundreds of years. Isn't some spacecraft launched over 40 years ago and now at the edge of the solar system, still sending back signals?


Yes, but: I'd say that space electronics (no nearly unlimited budget) really can't be compared to consumer electronics (super limited budget with far cheaper parts used, not very robust circuits or "fail-safes" added).

 

[sloinker]

You also need to remember that space is cold and heat is the enemy.

 

[nthach]

Originally Posted by WhizkidTN

Yes, but: I'd say that space electronics (no nearly unlimited budget) really can't be compared to consumer electronics (super limited budget with far cheaper parts used, not very robust circuits or "fail-safes" added).

I would imagine aerospace electronics, even though in small planes have to adhere to strict ARINC specs and have to be well supported by the vendor for the duration of its useful life. Look at commercial aviation, the current 777/737NG and A320/330 do have some 1990s-era tech in their avionics bays.

Sure, the computers onboard the current iteration of spacecraft are probably comparable to a computer from 10-20 years ago.

 

[atikovi]

Originally Posted by WhizkidTN
Originally Posted by atikovi
Originally Posted by RayCJ
15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).


15? I thought electronics with the absence of any moving parts to wear out, would last hundreds of years. Isn't some spacecraft launched over 40 years ago and now at the edge of the solar system, still sending back signals?


Yes, but: I'd say that space electronics (no nearly unlimited budget) really can't be compared to consumer electronics (super limited budget with far cheaper parts used, not very robust circuits or "fail-safes" added).


I always thought NASA was on a pretty limited budget, after all, they're not selling something and making any money like Ford or Sony. And is there a big difference in quality between say a resistor or capacitor NASA uses to one Panasonic does?

 

[RayCJ]

Originally Posted by atikovi
Originally Posted by RayCJ
15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).


15? I thought electronics with the absence of any moving parts to wear out, would last hundreds of years. Isn't some spacecraft launched over 40 years ago and now at the edge of the solar system, still sending back signals?



Voyager 1 and 2. Still going -and much longer than expected. Every single component of those spacecraft was cherry-picked. Every single component went through highly monitored accelerated life testing (ALT). The early-life characteristics of the ALT units were observed. For the final production, the only parts that were used were ones that had the same early-life characteristics of the ALT devices that lived the longest. There are companies that specialize in conducting these kinds of tests and will also purchase large quantities of components, test them and identify the ones that will last the longest. This is very commonly done for capacitors and relay switches which are generally regarded to be the weakest link in any electronic device.

Semiconductor devices tend to last a very long time (decades) if used within operating range. The main failure mode of semiconductors is the packaging and how well they are sealed. When the epoxy gives way (commonly due to heat) the device will fail certainly and suddenly.

All this stuff is traditional electronic equipment. In cars these days, touch screen displays are all the rage. Touch screens come in many flavors of technology -all of which have finite lifetimes. Touch screens are just one example of vulnerable components.

Anyhow, I'm not too interested in how/why electronic parts fail (part of my career involves reliability engineering); I'm mainly interested in what folks think will happen to all these cars when all this fancy stuff starts dropping like flies. What will happen to the used car market? Will electronics engineering careers make a comeback?

Ray

 

[PandaBear]

Space electronics are hardened, and fail differently than automotive or consumer stuff.

In cars we have ECU lasting 20+ years, and when they fail there are enough junkyard scraps to be pulled and listed on ebay for you to swap out. The best you can do is buy a common and popular model car so the volume of junkyard pull will be great.

Infotainment system is not a big deal, in 20 years your's will likely be obsolete and you will just be bluetooth from your phone instead anyways. Just make sure the charging and bluetooth works and all else can be skipped (GPS, jukebox, analog clock, dashcam, etc). You will also likely be able to find replacement junkyard pull as above.

Main concern to me would be emission related stuff, if they go particulate filter and urea injection then it will be a lot more delicate, and you cannot ignore it when it fail. You are likely going to need more than junkyard pull (illegal to sell used cat) or ebay (CARB cat or you can't pass?).

 

[WagonWheel]

Originally Posted by atikovi
Originally Posted by RayCJ
15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).


15? I thought electronics with the absence of any moving parts to wear out, would last hundreds of years. Isn't some spacecraft launched over 40 years ago and now at the edge of the solar system, still sending back signals?


Try pricing out a rad-hardened processor 🤑

A typical auto electronic design reliability target I see is usually on the order of 15-20K powered on hours. They usually have a temperaturep profile that each Tier 1 specifies.

You do have other failure modes beyond solder failure, such as metal migration in the IC.

 

[fdcg27]

Originally Posted by Lolvoguy

The 4 cyl engine was never intended to offer longevity (including naturally aspirated versions).


Is that so?
Try telling that tale to those who've owned a few of the countless bulletproof four cylinder Honda and Toyota models.
I'd mention the four cylinder Mercedes diesels, but those who've owned those things would just laugh at you.

 

[Ws6]

Originally Posted by RayCJ

The thread about average vehicle age https://www.bobistheoilguy.com/foru...icle-age-sets-a-record-at-11-8-years-old has got me wondering what's going to happen when all the fancy "infotainment" modules start going bad. Likewise for all the incredibly complex engine control modules...

Complex electronic systems are typically designed with a particular service life in-mind. 15 years is generally attainable even in the harsh environment under a dashboard (or worse yet, engine compartment).

Engines and most non-CVT transmissions are lasting 200k+. Where is this all going? Are we headed toward "disposable" cars? What will the supply chain situation look like > 15 or 20 years from now?

Thoughts???

Ray


Well...

My 2015 cx5 had 106k miles on it. No real issues other than HPFP failure, which I believe was caused by bad fuel as the FPR went bad at the same time, both 10 minutes after a fuel up. This was in 2019.

My 2002 infiniti g20 lasted 147k miles and until 2013 or so, although the transmission failed spectacularly right after a fluid change. The electronics were fine.

My 2010 Jeep, with all its mechanical failures, no electronics went bad by 93k miles when I dumped it in 2015.

Really, Ive never had a vehicle with electronic issues unless you count mid 90s ford window motors.