Remember Let's Make A Deal, the TV gameshow? Would-be contestants showed up in silly costumes with silly props, & the host, good ol' Monte Hall, would choose someone & offer them something like $50 for their feather duster.
Anothr trade/offer or two would ensue & finally a lucky contestant would be offered the choice of a prize that lay behind closed doors. There would be one stinker, one so-so door prize, and the *Good* prize, often a trip to Hawaii or a new car. "Do you want Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3?"
Contestant would choose- let's say #1, though it doesn't really matter which one. Monte might offer ca$h for the door- most contestants held firm.
Let's say you are the contestant, you've declined cash for your door, and now old Monte offers you another deal. First, he shows you what's behind Door #2- it's a new color TV plus a year's supply of Rice-A-Roni, the San Fransisco Treat! Not too bad, but it sure ain't a new Chevy- and you want that car.
Now- the offer. You still have Door #1. Door #2 had the TV and is out of play. Monte says,"Do you want to keep Door #1, or would you like to trade it for Door #3?"
The question: should you keep #1, trade it for #3, or does it matter? Support your answer.
Warning- this one is subtle, and for years in the 1990's PHD's in Math, Statistics & Probability argued over this one.
There are still some disagreements- but there is a general- wait for it- consensus.
Anothr trade/offer or two would ensue & finally a lucky contestant would be offered the choice of a prize that lay behind closed doors. There would be one stinker, one so-so door prize, and the *Good* prize, often a trip to Hawaii or a new car. "Do you want Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3?"
Contestant would choose- let's say #1, though it doesn't really matter which one. Monte might offer ca$h for the door- most contestants held firm.
Let's say you are the contestant, you've declined cash for your door, and now old Monte offers you another deal. First, he shows you what's behind Door #2- it's a new color TV plus a year's supply of Rice-A-Roni, the San Fransisco Treat! Not too bad, but it sure ain't a new Chevy- and you want that car.
Now- the offer. You still have Door #1. Door #2 had the TV and is out of play. Monte says,"Do you want to keep Door #1, or would you like to trade it for Door #3?"
The question: should you keep #1, trade it for #3, or does it matter? Support your answer.
Warning- this one is subtle, and for years in the 1990's PHD's in Math, Statistics & Probability argued over this one.
There are still some disagreements- but there is a general- wait for it- consensus.
