I think the difference is that all those things started at the bottom of the skill set. Steam engines replaced ox teams, for example.
It will be interesting to watch, to say the least.
CEOs: AI Will Wipe Out Some Jobs
- Thread starter buster
- Start date
It will be interesting to watch, to say the least.
The question is, will Americans embrace change or run away scared? The leadership?
If the answer is like much of what we have seen, including here, then yeah, rough times ahead.
You grow or you go.
Will it matter? Someone in the world will embrace it, and it will all go there if needed. That place has traditionally been here, or someplace here.
You can't stop it.
U.S. Unemployment Rates by Year
Year Unemployment Rate (December) Notable Factor or Event
1929 3.2% Market crash
1930 8.7% Smoot-Hawley
1931 15.9% Dust Bowl
1932 23.6% Hoover’s tax hikes
1933 24.9% FDR’s New Deal
1934 21.7% Depression eased
1935 20.1% N/A
1936 16.9% N/A
1937 14.3% Spending cuts
1938 19.0% FLSA started minimum wage
1939 17.2% Drought ended
1940 14.6% U.S. draft
1941 9.9% Pearl Harbor
1942 4.7% Defense spending tripled
1943 1.9% Germany surrendered at Stalingrad
1944 1.2% Bretton Woods
1945 1.9% World War II ended; minimum wage: 40 cents
1946 3.9% Employment Act
1947 3.6% Marshall Plan negotiated
1948 4.0% Truman reelected
1949 6.6% Fair Deal; NATO
1950 4.3% Korean War; minimum wage: 75 cents
1951 3.1% Expansion
1952 2.7% Expansion
1953 4.5% Korean War ended
1954 5.0% Dow returned to 1929 level
1955 4.2% Unemployment fell
1956 4.2% Minimum wage: $1
1957 5.2% Recession
1958 6.2% N/A
1959 5.3% Expansion
1960 6.6% Recession
1961 6.0% JFK takes office; minimum wage: $1.15
1962 5.5% Cuban Missile Crisis
1963 5.5% LBJ takes office; minimum wage: $1.25
1964 5.0% Tax cut
1965 4.0% U.S. entered Vietnam War
1966 3.8% Expansion
1967 3.8% Minimum wage: $1.40
1968 3.4% Minimum wage: $1.60
1969 3.5% Nixon took office
1970 6.1% Recession
1971 6.0% Emergency Employment Act; wage-price controls
1972 5.2% Ongoing stagflation; Watergate
1973 4.9% CETA; gold standard; Vietnam War ended
1974 7.2% Nixon resigned; minimum wage: $2
1975 8.2% Recession ended
1976 7.8% Expansion
1977 6.4% Carter took office
1978 6.0% Fed raised rate to 20% to stop inflation
1979 6.0% N/A
1980 7.2% Recession
1981 8.5% Reagan took office; Reagan tax cuts; minimum wage: $3.35
1982 10.8% Job Training Partnership Act; Garn-St. Germain Act
1983 8.3% Reagan increased military spending
1984 7.3% N/A
1985 7.0% Expansion
1986 6.6% Tax cuts
1987 5.7% Black Monday
1988 5.3% Fed raised rates
1989 5.4% George H.W. Bush took office; reforms made to address S&L Crisis
1990 6.3% Recession
1991 7.3% Desert Storm; minimum wage: $4.25
1992 7.4% NAFTA drafted
1993 6.5% Clinton took office; Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act
1994 5.5% School to Work Act
1995 5.6% Expansion
1996 5.4% Welfare reform
1997 4.7% Minimum wage: $5.85
1998 4.4% LTCM crisis
1999 4.0% Euro; Serbian airstrike
2000 3.9% Nasdaq hit record high
2001 5.7% George W. Bush took office; Bush tax cuts; 9/11 attacks
2002 6.0% War on Terror
2003 5.7% JGTRRA
2004 5.4% Expansion
2005 4.9% Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention Act; Hurricane Katrina
2006 4.4% Expansion
2007 5.0% N/A
2008 7.3% Minimum wage: $6.55; financial crisis
2009 9.9% Obama took office; ARRA; minimum wage: $7.25; jobless benefits extended
2010 9.3% Obama tax cuts
2011 8.5% 26 months of job losses by July; debt ceiling crisis; Iraq War ended
2012 7.9% QE; 10-year rate at 200-year low; fiscal cliff
2013 6.7% Stocks up 30%
2014 5.6% Unemployment at 2007 levels
2015 5.0% Natural rate
2016 4.7% Presidential race
2017 4.1% Trump took office; dollar weakened
2018 3.9% Trump tax cuts
2019 3.6% Goldilocks economy
2020 6.7% Pandemic and recession
2021 3.9% Pandemic and recovery; Biden took office
2022 3.5% Continued recovery; Fed raised rates to fight inflation
2023 3.7% Falling inflation
Robots, computers, automation etc etc etc were supposed to eliminate jobs, yet somewhow jobs bounce back. AI is different they say, but history shows otherwise.
Year Unemployment Rate (December) Notable Factor or Event
1929 3.2% Market crash
1930 8.7% Smoot-Hawley
1931 15.9% Dust Bowl
1932 23.6% Hoover’s tax hikes
1933 24.9% FDR’s New Deal
1934 21.7% Depression eased
1935 20.1% N/A
1936 16.9% N/A
1937 14.3% Spending cuts
1938 19.0% FLSA started minimum wage
1939 17.2% Drought ended
1940 14.6% U.S. draft
1941 9.9% Pearl Harbor
1942 4.7% Defense spending tripled
1943 1.9% Germany surrendered at Stalingrad
1944 1.2% Bretton Woods
1945 1.9% World War II ended; minimum wage: 40 cents
1946 3.9% Employment Act
1947 3.6% Marshall Plan negotiated
1948 4.0% Truman reelected
1949 6.6% Fair Deal; NATO
1950 4.3% Korean War; minimum wage: 75 cents
1951 3.1% Expansion
1952 2.7% Expansion
1953 4.5% Korean War ended
1954 5.0% Dow returned to 1929 level
1955 4.2% Unemployment fell
1956 4.2% Minimum wage: $1
1957 5.2% Recession
1958 6.2% N/A
1959 5.3% Expansion
1960 6.6% Recession
1961 6.0% JFK takes office; minimum wage: $1.15
1962 5.5% Cuban Missile Crisis
1963 5.5% LBJ takes office; minimum wage: $1.25
1964 5.0% Tax cut
1965 4.0% U.S. entered Vietnam War
1966 3.8% Expansion
1967 3.8% Minimum wage: $1.40
1968 3.4% Minimum wage: $1.60
1969 3.5% Nixon took office
1970 6.1% Recession
1971 6.0% Emergency Employment Act; wage-price controls
1972 5.2% Ongoing stagflation; Watergate
1973 4.9% CETA; gold standard; Vietnam War ended
1974 7.2% Nixon resigned; minimum wage: $2
1975 8.2% Recession ended
1976 7.8% Expansion
1977 6.4% Carter took office
1978 6.0% Fed raised rate to 20% to stop inflation
1979 6.0% N/A
1980 7.2% Recession
1981 8.5% Reagan took office; Reagan tax cuts; minimum wage: $3.35
1982 10.8% Job Training Partnership Act; Garn-St. Germain Act
1983 8.3% Reagan increased military spending
1984 7.3% N/A
1985 7.0% Expansion
1986 6.6% Tax cuts
1987 5.7% Black Monday
1988 5.3% Fed raised rates
1989 5.4% George H.W. Bush took office; reforms made to address S&L Crisis
1990 6.3% Recession
1991 7.3% Desert Storm; minimum wage: $4.25
1992 7.4% NAFTA drafted
1993 6.5% Clinton took office; Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act
1994 5.5% School to Work Act
1995 5.6% Expansion
1996 5.4% Welfare reform
1997 4.7% Minimum wage: $5.85
1998 4.4% LTCM crisis
1999 4.0% Euro; Serbian airstrike
2000 3.9% Nasdaq hit record high
2001 5.7% George W. Bush took office; Bush tax cuts; 9/11 attacks
2002 6.0% War on Terror
2003 5.7% JGTRRA
2004 5.4% Expansion
2005 4.9% Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention Act; Hurricane Katrina
2006 4.4% Expansion
2007 5.0% N/A
2008 7.3% Minimum wage: $6.55; financial crisis
2009 9.9% Obama took office; ARRA; minimum wage: $7.25; jobless benefits extended
2010 9.3% Obama tax cuts
2011 8.5% 26 months of job losses by July; debt ceiling crisis; Iraq War ended
2012 7.9% QE; 10-year rate at 200-year low; fiscal cliff
2013 6.7% Stocks up 30%
2014 5.6% Unemployment at 2007 levels
2015 5.0% Natural rate
2016 4.7% Presidential race
2017 4.1% Trump took office; dollar weakened
2018 3.9% Trump tax cuts
2019 3.6% Goldilocks economy
2020 6.7% Pandemic and recession
2021 3.9% Pandemic and recovery; Biden took office
2022 3.5% Continued recovery; Fed raised rates to fight inflation
2023 3.7% Falling inflation
Robots, computers, automation etc etc etc were supposed to eliminate jobs, yet somewhow jobs bounce back. AI is different they say, but history shows otherwise.
Fair. But there is more nuance to it.
Methodology pre ww2 isn't comparable - calculations and estimates. So economists call post WW2 "the modern era".
In the modern era highest unemployment rate is around 8% ish - in the 70's and early 80's. Were currently at 4.2% so yes, a far cry away. However there are lots of people under-employed which is hard to track. Its not hard to imagine AI taking 4% of the workforces jobs pretty quickly. Self driving might be a big one. The largest profession in the economy involves "driver". Truck driver, delivery driver, uber driver etc. Data processing is another - think of all the people at banks, insurance, and government shuffling paper.
The question will become what jobs will be created by this new tech. The IT world didn't exist pre computer - for example. Hard to know.
The bigger issue is that the jobs it might take are fairly high paying comparative to the past, which will be a huge drain on our consumer driven economy.
Prompt engineer…
Yes, you can't stop it; tech will win. I am more concerned with which country leads... To win, leadership, and will, is required.
We have to fund education and training.
Education could be one of the biggest benefactors of AI if they did it right. Learning in a classroom at the same pace as everyone else is a waste - I am talking adult ed not children. You either want to learn or you do not.
The government should figure out what skills the country needs, hang it all online for free, anyone with a federal ID.me login can sign up and begin. Obviously there would be lots of nuances, like stuff you can't learn online, and proctored tests - but they should make it easy for anyone with the ambition and skill to get educated with the skills we need.
Education has been the benefactor of the computer and Internet. I learned most of my database and programming background on my own. AI is a natural progression. IMO, the real beauty is we can learn at our own speed and go in our own direction to get to a good place.
The government has funded much of Silicon Valley's development and there have been 5, or more, failures for each success. Business is in the business of making money. Government has the role to fund projects that are too big for business and/or have little to no ROI, at least in the short term.
That's what it takes.
Its noteworthy there is a confluence of three factors at this point.
1) The emergence of AI in the workplace in earnest.
2) The vast reduction of immigration, and by extension cheap, manual, minimal skilled labor.
3) The ending of easily collecting government handouts by the young and able bodied Americans who are reluctant to work.
I think it all works out well. The AI workplace disruptions are upon us, and deportations are causing labor voids. Time for young able bodied Americans to put down the remote, get off the couch, and get a job.
The type of job matters. Some go up and some move down.
Not sure where you’re getting the idea that young people don’t work or don’t want to work.
Stats don’t seem to support your notion.
That "unemployment rate" stat only reflects those "actively looking" for a job. We now have 4th and 5th generations on welfare, people who never worked at any point in their lives. When people drop out or never begin looking for work, they are not counted. I thought everyone knew that.
It's really 25%. https://www.lisep.org/tru
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Doesn’t matter what the “real” unemployment is, what matters is the comparison, which is very much a valid one. And it doesn’t show more young people being unemployed than in the past.
Older generations always seem to think the young ones are lazy. I get it, it comes with age, but those are just opinions not reflected by reality.
How many of these young able bodied Americans that you speak of do you know?
