Car prices to plummet amid oversupply

[ecotourist]

I am one of those many people that won't pay, except were still awash in too much money, and there always seems to be many people that do - live for today.

I think the issue is that many people say "If I can afford the payments, that means I can afford this" (whatever "this" is). They don't think about how much something costs or how long they'll have to make the payments.

My approach:

(1) I pay cash for everything. If I can't pay cash, I can't afford it. I've done that since 1981.

(2) I invest in businesses that loan money to people who make payments.

That two headed approach has served me (us) quite well.

There is no way I would be paying $60 or 80,000 for a truck. And you probably can't get a truck here (in Canada) for that amount anyway.

 

[ecotourist]

How are able-bodied but not working adults living?

I don't know about 50% but lots of working age people don't work. Some situations are understandable - young retirees, spouses of the well off who choose not to work, spouses taking care of a house full of kids while their partner works crazy hours, spouses of farmers (usually called farm wives who don't appear to have an occupation but work harder than many hourly paid people). Some people are undergoing treatment for major health conditions that prevents them from working. New mothers. There are truly disabled people (mentally, physically, intellectually).

There is some failure to launch "Why should I work, I plan to inherit your money grandma", "Why should I haul furniture when I have a degree in XXX" (both actual cases).

There are "claimants for disability benefits" (post motor vehicle accidents, post work related events, alleged physical or mental conditions). As a physician, when you examine these claimants you can't find anything abnormal but the claimant insists they are unable to work. There is some actual fraud (a small minority I believe), some is based on bad advice from well meaning but ill informed "supporters", and much of it is based on a belief system gone wrong.

And probably many other things I haven't thought of.

 

[macarose]

The UAW will likely be going on strike, and this time, I'm heavily inclined to think that it will take a long while.

Once manufacturers go through their excess inventory, you will see higher prices that may last well into next years tax season.

Nothing is guaranteed.

 

[SC Maintenance]

So I did 5 minutes of math, figured might be of interest.

According to the SS Admin, there are 71M on SSI, of which 54M are 65 or older. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/

According to the Census - it appears from the pyramid below there are maybe 80M ish kids under 20. Figure most of those are in school or what not.

Population 332M - 71M - 80M = 181M.

According to the Fed there area 133.5M total private employees. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV

Seems like about 22M in all forms of government - state, local, fed. https://www.statista.com/statistics...und 19.23 million,million people in that year.

So were at around 155.5M working people out of 181M working age people. I realize there is some overlap - 18 year olds working, 68 year olds working, etc - but that doesn't seem too far out of whack really?

 

[97K15004WD]

There is not a single program that pays an able bodied person a LIVING WAGE to sit in a basement. This has been repeated over and over on here-I have asked for proof and nobody can provided it.

Agree with you. Here's the chart showing numbers that things today employment wise are not as bad as some make it out to be:

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vpdzq/7/

So for those saying things are bad today, then it was "just as bad" back in 1977 - the "good ole days"

 

[CKN]

I don't know about 50% but lots of working age people don't work. Some situations are understandable - young retirees, spouses of the well off who choose not to work, spouses taking care of a house full of kids while their partner works crazy hours, spouses of farmers (usually called farm wives who don't appear to have an occupation but work harder than many hourly paid people). Some people are undergoing treatment for major health conditions that prevents them from working. New mothers. There are truly disabled people (mentally, physically, intellectually).

There is some failure to launch "Why should I work, I plan to inherit your money grandma", "Why should I haul furniture when I have a degree in XXX" (both actual cases).

There are "claimants for disability benefits" (post motor vehicle accidents, post work related events, alleged physical or mental conditions). As a physician, when you examine these claimants you can't find anything abnormal but the claimant insists they are unable to work. There is some actual fraud (a small minority I believe), some is based on bad advice from well meaning but ill informed "supporters", and much of it is based on a belief system gone wrong.

And probably many other things I haven't thought of.

We can agree there is always fraud in any system. And always lazy people. There is still not a program that pays someone a living wage to sit home. BTW-people on SSI are usually living very meagerly. Because of my earnings-statistically I get well the above average Social Security amount-but I would want to try to live solely on that program alone.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

No worries, I bet they are already working on a “cash for carbon-emitters” where tax dollars will be used to entice people to crush their evil ICEs, get an EV at half off thanks to your neighbors’ money, and convince those people they are “saving the planet”. Oversupply will disappear quickly.

 

[ecotourist]

There is still not a program that pays someone a living wage to sit home. BTW-people on SSI are usually living very meagerly. Because of my earnings-statistically I get well the above average Social Security amount-but I would want to try to live solely on that program alone.

What you say is true for social security. It's a marginal living at best. Totally agree.

But there are many disability programs (in Canada anyway) that pay an income very similar to the income that person had prior to injury/illness. Considering that there are no work related expenses, the person may be money ahead.

One of my former neighbours (who was apparently disabled) lived in the same upscale neighbourhood as me and drove a nicer car.

For what it's worth, living on disability isn't a great life. You have to make sure you "don't get caught working". One guy I worked with kept the blinds pulled on his trailer so no-one could see what he was doing and snuck out early in the morning to mow his lawn and change the oil in his vehicle. Though he wasn't actually physically disabled (which was the original basis for his claim) he became mentally disabled through his anxiety about keeping it going. It was a truly sad case.

 

[Barkleymut]

saw this yesterday when i was picking up an oil filter at the local toyota/nissan dealer...after a long week I needed a good laugh, thanks Loyalty Nissan

 

[CKN]

What you say is true for social security. It's a marginal living at best. Totally agree.

But there are many disability programs (in Canada anyway) that pay an income very similar to the income that person had prior to injury/illness. Considering that there are no work related expenses, the person may be money ahead.

One of my former neighbours (who was apparently disabled) lived in the same upscale neighbourhood as me and drove a nicer car.

For what it's worth, living on disability isn't a great life. You have to make sure you "don't get caught working". One guy I worked with kept the blinds pulled on his trailer so no-one could see what he was doing and snuck out early in the morning to mow his lawn and change the oil in his vehicle. Though he wasn't actually physically disabled (which was the original basis for his claim) he became mentally disabled through his anxiety about keeping it going. It was a truly sad case.

I have spoken to many Canadians on cruise ships. Yes- I know what you are saying. My comments are about living in the U.S.

 

[fdcg27]

The SSDI benefits payable to a working age person look pretty slim. The max with a family is around $3600/mo. While some might game the system, they wouldn't be vacationing anywhere warm each winter and would have difficulty just getting housing and food to eat, let alone affording a car to worry about what oil to use in one.
I doubt that very many folks opt into SSDI just to avoid having to work.

 

[CKN]

View attachment 172350saw this yesterday when i was picking up an oil filter at the local toyota/nissan dealer...after a long week I needed a good laugh, thanks Loyalty Nissan

Nissan Dealers as a whole seem to be the worst. JMHO.

 

[wpod]

View attachment 172350saw this yesterday when i was picking up an oil filter at the local toyota/nissan dealer...after a long week I needed a good laugh, thanks Loyalty Nissan

There is no fool like a car buying fool.

 

[SC Maintenance]

View attachment 172350saw this yesterday when i was picking up an oil filter at the local toyota/nissan dealer...after a long week I needed a good laugh, thanks Loyalty Nissan

I love my Nissan's, but I won't buy another new one - at least not from the local dealers around here.

Market adjustment on a pathfinder? Too funny.

 

[ecotourist]

View attachment 172350saw this yesterday when i was picking up an oil filter at the local toyota/nissan dealer...after a long week I needed a good laugh, thanks Loyalty Nissan

Love the Loyalty Package ($795) for wheel locks, pinstripes and Nitrogen. I'd insist they take the wheel locks off, let the nitrogen out, and take the pin stripes off. But then again I'm that sort of customer.

When I bought my last Honda, it had a sticker for marked glass. I said I hope you haven't marked the glass because I'm not paying for it (they hadn't). I did keep the sticker.

 

[PandaBear]

Were they talking about the price before or after inflation?

 

[Rmay635703]

Were they talking about the price before or after inflation?

Prices are plummeting to almost $5000 more than what they were pre-pandemic

 

[PandaBear]

Those comments are astonishing. Actually, it is an achievement.
I want to see someone living from some program.
The BIG problem is housing which is fueled by income inequality.
Vail Resort crisis two years ago is prime example of that.
They bought bunch of properties in the Summit County here in CO when prices briefly went down at initial stages of COVID. Then, they sold bunch of that to wealthy individuals and others rented. Those properties were rented before to seasonal workers.
Then first normal season came after initial stage of COVID and they were: well, why not enough workers? They must be lazy, want everything for free.
Yeah, working for $13/hr really doesn’t get you far in a place where 300sq/ft is going for $500-600k. The rent was astonishing bcs. people who bought places from Vail Resorts now want to make money.
Then Vail Resorts said: we will just house you in bunk beds, 6 in studio, bcs. you are lazy. Of course all got COVID.
All that time social media was full of these comments: lazy, living on welfare, my generation would suck it up, etc.
Yeah, I want to see them earning $13 and living in a place like that. Therefore, no workforce. Simple! No one is going to come and say: yes, I will work for free, actually subsidize multibillion dollars company bcs. they wanted to squeeze every single $ out of pandemic. Same happened at Stevens Pass, WA etc. wherever they own ski resorts.

I've mentioned before. A cafe owner I know has to pay $17/hr to hire someone who doesn't know how to sweep the floor, and an experienced person would need $21/hr. He couldn't afford $21/hr to keep his cafe open on Sunday and he has to shut it down, and his $17/hr employee cannot afford to live on $17/hr here with 1500/mo rent for a room, that guy decided to finish school asap so he can make a living as a 100k/yr worker.

It is not because people are lazy.

 

[PandaBear]

No worries, I bet they are already working on a “cash for carbon-emitters” where tax dollars will be used to entice people to crush their evil ICEs, get an EV at half off thanks to your neighbors’ money, and convince those people they are “saving the planet”. Oversupply will disappear quickly.

That program has been around since probably 2000 or earlier, I don't know how many people are willing to crush a functional car for $1200 if it is able to start and pass smog. I can probably sell anything running for $2k.

Those got crushed are usually paid for by polluters so they can claim the credit, like power plants, refinery, smelter, cement plants, etc. It is cheaper for them to crush old cars than to reduce emissions sometimes.

 

[ecotourist]

I don't know about 50% but lots of working age people don't work.

It's a first world problem.

In my medical school we had a visiting professor from Egypt. He was amazed that our community had disability due to back pain. He said in his country there was "no back pain".

With a bit of research he found there actually was back pain but there was no disability because of it. Because there was no "safety net", people with back pain kept working, eventually recovered and were not disabled.

Only in the first world do we have numerous cases of disability due to back pain. Having said that, a small number of people with back pain do require surgery (particularly those with loss of bowel and bladder control who require emergency surgery). I'd also recommend surgery for those with progressive loss of neurological function (ie progressive loss of reflexes, foot drop, etc). I don't know what happened to those groups in Egypt but it probably wasn't good.