Bad News For EVs in California

[4WD]

Canadian nuclear technology and operational practices are the best in world. Texas and California should get educated on this ASAP.

Is California interested … ?

 

[OVERKILL]

No need to fret about gasoline/diesel prices in the US. Average price in France and most of Europe is ~€ 1.35/liter or roughly $5.40/gallon USD. Just like how to boil a frog, do it slowly and he never realizes just how hot the water is getting. Its coming here too. We'll adjust.

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It's already closer to home. Gas prices in the Vancouver area of British Columbia are currently north of $1.60/L:
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/british-columbia/vancouver

That's $1.35US/Litre, or $5.11/gallon.

 

[Surestick]

EVs can be part of the solution to the problem.
Electricity pricing based on demand and vehicle-to-grid can help provide capacity when there's high demand and take up excess capacity when demand is low.
It can also help consumers with the cost of electricity (charge the car when electricity is cheaper, sell it back to the grid when it's more expensive).

It does require an infrastructure update to accomplish and the money for that comes from somewhere.

 

[OVERKILL]

EVs can be part of the solution to the problem.
Electricity pricing based on demand and vehicle-to-grid can help provide capacity when there's high demand and take up excess capacity when demand is low.
It can also help consumers with the cost of electricity (charge the car when electricity is cheaper, sell it back to the grid when it's more expensive).

It does require an infrastructure update to accomplish and the money for that comes from somewhere.

I have absolutely no interest in using my vehicle to prop-up the grid. Batteries are cycle limited, which means you are degrading them while using them in this usage profile. In practice, this is also going to be inherently volatile as you'll have people coming and going, so it isn't dependable capacity. It's a neat idea in theory, but in application it just doesn't seem practical.

Historically, grids were designed with capacity + margin to handle peak demand. We've buggered that up in many locations where we don't have the firm capacity, let alone the margin. This model, with significant quantities of baseload generation, meant cheap off-peak pricing to avoid shutting that capacity down. Now, we have capacity that comes and goes, creating capacity crunches during heat waves and cold snaps. We've scuttled reliability; sacrificed it on the altar of ideology, replacing solid engineering expertise with the whims of politicians and their pundits, creating epic Rube Goldbergs for the grid operators to try and manage.

Basically, we've invented this problem, it's not one that's inherent to traditional (read: proper) grid design, it's the result of abandoning sound grid engineering to accommodate the whims of of a certain sect and to allow fossil fuel companies to greenwash their gas generation.

 

[awguy]

Most EV's are charged at night where there is little stress on the electric grid.

As a matter of fact power plants must run at a minimum setting and electricity is wasted during the night so typical night EV charging is a perfect match.

 

[Cujet]

Right.

my thinking is, ev might still be cheaper, per mile, even if electricity costs go up.

Some astute CA Chevy Volt owners discovered that (under some conditions) (with accurate accounting of electrical charges) it was cheaper to use gas than to plug in.

https://www.gm-volt.com/threads/is-...o-run-the-volt-on-gas-than-on-electric.32353/

 

[OVERKILL]

This post has gotten pretty political already, so my take on this shouldn't hurt it one bit.
In Europe, they now import wood to burn in their power plants, claiming it is "Green Energy"!

Even though the news media hasn't portrayed it favorably. Our Governor, Ron Desantis, just signed a bill into law that prevents any city or town in Florida from making electric cars mandantory. The media portrayed it as "requiring the continued use of fossil fuel"!
Say what you will about Ron Desantis, but he knows a thing or two about freedom and rights.

And I thought Gov Newsom was facing a recall election, so somebody is voting for something there in California.

Oh, you mean "biomass", one of the largest sources of "renewable" generation in Germany, burning trees instead of coal. It was/is a way to pitch non-hydro renewable "baseload".

 

[OVERKILL]

Most EV's are charged at night where there is little stress on the electric grid.

As a matter of fact power plants must run at a minimum setting and electricity is wasted during the night so typical night EV charging is a perfect match.

Yes, this is presently the case. However, increased EV penetration may change that.

 

[Job]

Look at service territory size… and scope.

Ta da…

I already said that as a possible reason in my full post.

Ev smeevee, it's the a/c's running all over that are causing electricity shortages. Costco has their huge doors open all day and the rotisserie chickens cooking all day like a blast furnace in the back of the store.

 

[JavierH19]

if only they'd stop being stupid an adopt more nuclear plants.

 

[Rmay635703]

Let's put it this way: the rural farmers are getting 5% of their requested water allotment because of drought.

It has also been about 5-10 years since farmers, native americans, urban people, environmentalists fight over water for almond farming (something like 90% of the water usage here according to propaganda), alfalfa (propaganda shot back by almond farmer to the ranchers), dumping water into the ocean (ranchers and almond farmers fighting back at the Native Americans and environmentalists in their propaganda).

So no matter what you do we are going to get insufficient water, farmers can decide to abandon their lands or they can use them for solar. Do you want the inland farmers to lose this choice? what is the propaganda of people who want to fight for farmland to solar and wind conversion? Maybe leaving farmland dried up is the way to go.

Historically much of the derelict dry land was used to grow hemp instead (you know the stuff that will actually natively grow in a desert)

Then there is no need for water, too bad the government has mostly banned industrial hemp for rope, oil, seed and protein


As it stands Cali is out of potable water, unless you consider the stuff out of the tap that tastes like chimney sweepings water.
It is expected this drought cycle will last at least 3 years.

Gotta wonder what a change of lifestyle will do to folks when the only available water is saltwater and not enough is around for millions of people to shower and Schmidt in.

Drinking water only policy might completely change things out there.

 

[PandaBear]

Historically much of the derelict dry land was used to grow hemp instead (you know the stuff that will actually natively grow in a desert)

Then there is no need for water, too bad the government has mostly banned industrial hemp for rope, oil, seed and protein


As it stands Cali is out of potable water, unless you consider the stuff out of the tap that tastes like chimney sweepings water.
It is expected this drought cycle will last at least 3 years.

Gotta wonder what a change of lifestyle will do to folks when the only available water is saltwater and not enough is around for millions of people to shower and Schmidt in.

Drinking water only policy might completely change things out there.

I have been neglecting my small few hundred feet lawn for a few years now and would probably take it out soon. With all the recent milk producer bankruptcy and small farms closing, I would not be surprised the whole dairy industry would exit California (other than coastal organic farm without irrigated pasture). Some lower valued farming would likely moved elsewhere. Seems like some of those lands with depleted ground water is better off turning into solar farm instead.

Banning hemp while making pot legal is stupid.

 

[Snagglefoot]

How is that different than burning the gas and then sequest the CO2 back into the well?

I’m certainly not the expert but I understand that because it uses lower temperatures and does the conversion in the presence of a catalyst it is more efficient than trying to deal with a stream of hot CO2 as a byproduct of combustion.

 

[PandaBear]

I’m certainly not the expert but I understand that because it uses lower temperatures and does the conversion in the presence of a catalyst it is more efficient than trying to deal with a stream of hot CO2 as a byproduct of combustion.

View attachment 61811

As Elon Musk said, hydrogen fuel cell is stupid if this is how the most cost effective way to get H2.

 

[PandaBear]

I have absolutely no interest in using my vehicle to prop-up the grid. Batteries are cycle limited, which means you are degrading them while using them in this usage profile. In practice, this is also going to be inherently volatile as you'll have people coming and going, so it isn't dependable capacity. It's a neat idea in theory, but in application it just doesn't seem practical.

Historically, grids were designed with capacity + margin to handle peak demand. We've buggered that up in many locations where we don't have the firm capacity, let alone the margin. This model, with significant quantities of baseload generation, meant cheap off-peak pricing to avoid shutting that capacity down. Now, we have capacity that comes and goes, creating capacity crunches during heat waves and cold snaps. We've scuttled reliability; sacrificed it on the altar of ideology, replacing solid engineering expertise with the whims of politicians and their pundits, creating epic Rube Goldbergs for the grid operators to try and manage.

Basically, we've invented this problem, it's not one that's inherent to traditional (read: proper) grid design, it's the result of abandoning sound grid engineering to accommodate the whims of of a certain sect and to allow fossil fuel companies to greenwash their gas generation.

I have a feeling that car to grid back feeding would only happen if 1) utility subsidize your purchase by paying for your battery to begin with, and you are just leasing your batteries from them, and 2) it is in a fleet vehicles with predictable load, that is not used during commute hours but is used during office hours. I am not sure how will a vehicle be useful in feeding the grid when the commute hours is when they have to be plugged in to feed the grid at duck curve, but it is a good feasibility study and just in case I guess.

I think I saw a video about NIO and some other EV companies in China starts leasing batteries and sell their car without batteries, and you basically just swap them as they deplete, then they would be charged at night afterward when you are not paying for your own battery degradation. This seems like a cheap way to solve this problem.

Not sure if grid designed back in the roaring 20s would predict how we have done in 2021, things like computers, air conditioners, electric cars, etc didn't exist yet, and people don't really know what would happen in the next 20. We have buildings that only got 1 water meter and landlord paying for all water, and look what happen today when water is super expensive and we have smart meter for time of use.

What we have may be addressed if we price different USAGE instead of just time. We are treating electricity the same no matter what we use it to power, and that's a problem causing stability issue just like pricing all usage the same price at different hours, so we end up with people turning off their light at 8pm because others are charging EV at 8pm, that's not really smart.

 

[edyvw]

No need to fret about gasoline/diesel prices in the US. Average price in France and most of Europe is ~€ 1.35/liter or roughly $5.40/gallon USD. Just like how to boil a frog, do it slowly and he never realizes just how hot the water is getting. Its coming here too. We'll adjust.

View attachment 61799

Yeah, it is. Did you check the quality of their roads?
I would not mind paying $5 but not thinking whether there is 4x4 pothole in the middle of the interstate.

 

[OVERKILL]

Not sure if grid designed back in the roaring 20s would predict how we have done in 2021, things like computers, air conditioners, electric cars, etc didn't exist yet, and people don't really know what would happen in the next 20. We have buildings that only got 1 water meter and landlord paying for all water, and look what happen today when water is super expensive and we have smart meter for time of use.

I'm thinking far more recent than that, more like the design philosophy that resulted in Pickering, Darlington and Bruce getting built, so from the 1960's through to the 1990's. This whole "oh crap, we don't have enough power, demand management time!" is a very new problem and is entirely the result of not investing in enough firm capacity, or forcing firm capacity off the grid because of politics and hubris.

 

[edyvw]

Making green electricity too expensive and unreliable to power the mandated EVs is a feature, not a bug. My suspicion is that eventually, in California or somewhere in Europe, all those plugged-in EVs will be blamed for a huge blackout. Then suddenly the push will be to ban private (non-commercial) cars, period, regardless of type of propulsion.

There are already proposals floating around in Europe to ban private vehicles by 2050 on the grounds that even EVs are too bad for the environment. A British government report in 2019 hinted at this.

There are all kind of proposals floating around. Every individual has some idea regarding anything.
Try to ban vehicles in Germany, Italy or France, and let's see what happens. I would really like to watch that s... show. It is not all about vehicles. First and foremost it is about the economy and how many jobs that industry provides. Whoever tries to implement that should have gun with loaded chamber to commit suicide before mob hang him/her on the light pole.

 

[PandaBear]

There are all kind of proposals floating around. Every individual has some idea regarding anything.
Try to ban vehicles in Germany, Italy or France, and let's see what happens. I would really like to watch that s... show. It is not all about vehicles. First and foremost it is about the economy and how many jobs that industry provides. Whoever tries to implement that should have gun with loaded chamber to commit suicide before mob hang him/her on the light pole.

I, don't think that's how it works in Europe. From my understanding they love cars but they hate traffics, and they likely have bans for diesel (because diesel is not taxed the same way as gasoline) from entering urban center due to NIMBY first, then the traffic jams and parking nightmares. There were talks about cars entering urban center must be geo fenced into EV mode floating around in the past, and we know hybrid is already feasible without subsidies in 2021 so it should be very mature by 2030, like fuel injector is super reliable and nobody complains about carb going obsolete in 2021.

Yes you still need cars for the small towns and rural but not as much in the urban area. Remember their cities have way better public transit than US outside of maybe NYC, Seattles, and maybe San Francisco, etc.

Oh, they don't have oil and they have to import them, send military oversea to protect their energy security, etc etc. So they don't get the cheap $3 / gal gas we have in the US, try doubling them.

2050 is A LONG WAY FROM NOW. That's 29 years. What have we said about cars from 29 years ago? Did we ever envision mandating rear view camera? ABS? crash test we have today? or what about things that everyone entitle to like air conditioning, automatic transmission, 35mpg cars? fuel injection? regenerative braking? or things that last 250k miles without any major work? or those EV torque monsters? or all those good stuff we have now? Don't worry about 2050, something will work out by then and if not politics will always work itself out.

 

[PandaBear]

I'm thinking far more recent than that, more like the design philosophy that resulted in Pickering, Darlington and Bruce getting built, so from the 1960's through to the 1990's. This whole "oh crap, we don't have enough power, demand management time!" is a very new problem and is entirely the result of not investing in enough firm capacity, or forcing firm capacity off the grid because of politics and hubris.

I remember reading an article that Warren Buffett propose to build standby gas generator for Texas grid if they are willing to pay, something like 8.3B for 10 generators, or some other ridiculous number. I remember the idea got shot down almost immediately.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business...s and controls 6,megawatts on the Texas grid.