Aircraft Carriers and hypersonic missiles

[Jetronic]

Yes, the economy is probably the only thing that is going get us back on the course of a peaceful world. Putin thought he would take Ukraine in the same way he took Crimea away from Ukraine. Didn’t turn out for him. An invasion attempt in Taiwan would probably end up the same way; a large amount of destruction in Taiwan, but the ships bringing PLA boots would be picked off by missiles fired by USA Aircraft Carrier launched jet fighters.

That depends if you can assure air dominance, or even superiority over the strait and near the chinese coast. China doesn't have a blue water navy to speak off, but they can extend their power out from the coast a fair bit, today. And they get better almost by the day. Let's see what happens in a year or so, after the hurricane season is over.

 

[Pew]

What I want to know is how hypersonic missiles will steer. Correct me if I'm wrong (my missile knowledge goes as far as pressing my Xbox joysticks to summersault my airplane 3 times to avoid a missile,) I feel like anything going that fast will be near impossible to steer except for minimal adjustments. That leaves a relatively minimal window for correction unless the missile was to slow down a lot - which then makes it vulnerable to CIWS; or to hope that the target's position is stationary/easy to assume.

 

[buster]

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/darpas-new-missile-hints-at-truly-game-changing-technology/

 

[swampdodo]

You have to understand, hypersonic tech is not new...we (US) has been 'playing' with hypersonic tech since the 50/60s.

When Russia/China announce their 'new' hypersonic missiles, the response from the Pentagon was mainly nonchalant...unlike the media.

Either they have already something better or have moved onto other tech.

Think about this...the hypersonic navy rail gun...pretty much canceled...but directed energy (lasers) weapons...ah, something new has been added...

Plus, you just never really know what the military (DARPA) has...think about the first stealth fighter (F117)...

 

[GON]

Lots of discussions in this thread reference military tactics and operations. Conflict with large adversaries with industrial might, vast resources, and large populations historically comes down to strategy. Any party can win a battle at any time. Winning a war requires strategy.

Although ample western military leaders are fluent on the book- The Art of War by Sun Tzu, many experts would say The Art of War is the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) wholistic military strategy and playbook. I would recommend anyone wanting to compete/win in business, war, etc. read the Art of War. It is a fascinating and insightful book.

Closing this reply with a quote from Napolean Bonaparte:

About 200 years ago, Napoleon Bonaparte warned the world about China when he said, “China is a sleeping giant, let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” This statement is opined by some people to be a prophetic utterance about the future of China, but it is also a manifestation of the emperor’s political desire."

 

[PandaBear]

That depends if you can assure air dominance, or even superiority over the strait and near the chinese coast. China doesn't have a blue water navy to speak off, but they can extend their power out from the coast a fair bit, today. And they get better almost by the day. Let's see what happens in a year or so, after the hurricane season is over.

Taiwan is 100 miles away from mainland (if you consider this tiny island right at the shore it would be a few miles from China in the background, but the main Taiwan island is like 100 miles), 400-500 or so miles away from Okinawa. I would imagine both PLA and US base in Okinawa have enough firepower to cover 500 miles or they are not doing their jobs. In any case the whole Taiwan would be leveled regardless of which side win the war (along with a major part of China, Japan, S Korea, and N Korea). I'm sure people in Taiwan realise this as well, and they would pick keeping their current economic prosperity and democracy, and being a practically independent country over a completely independent warzone. I'm sure the whole world including CCP and US / Nato would prefer that as well.

One other thing: one of the incentive to get former Warsaw Pact to join NATO is to sell them arms for billions. Taiwan already buy arms from the US so there is no such incentive to have them go independent like there is incentive for Warsaw Pact countries to join NATO. So the chance of Taiwan declaring independent is much lower.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Taiwan is 100 miles away from mainland, 400-500 or so miles away from Okinawa. I would imagine both PLA and US base in Okinawa have enough firepower to cover 500 miles. In any case the whole Taiwan would be leveled regardless of which side win the war (along with a major part of China, Japan, S Korea, and N Korea). I'm sure people in Taiwan realise this as well, and they would pick keeping their current economic prosperity and democracy, and being a practically independent country over a completely independent warzone. I'm sure the whole world including CCP and US / Nato would prefer that as well.

One other thing: one of the incentive to get former Warsaw Pact to join NATO is to sell them arms for billions. Taiwan already buy arms from the US so there is no such incentive to have them go independent like there is incentive for Warsaw Pact countries to join NATO. So the chance of Taiwan declaring independent is much lower.

The problem with a large full scale 100 mile sail from the mainland to Taiwan is weather. The seas in the strait are rough almost year round.

 

[ripcord]

I don't see a boots on the ground type invasion of Taiwan any time soon. China simply does not have the amphibious assault ships to move the 100k+ troops across the ocean to carry it out and there is no intelligence suggesting that they are building that capability. Even if they did, those ships would be incredibly vulnerable during the crossing. At best they can attack by missiles and aircraft plus hit with suicide commando style raids while trying to blockade the island until it capitulates.

 

[PandaBear]

The problem with a large full scale 100 mile sail from the mainland to Taiwan is weather. The seas in the strait are rough almost year round.

So I guess "if" Taiwan want to go independent they will have to do it during Typhoon season, and then duck and cover in the air raid tunnels from fall to spring?

 

[PandaBear]

I don't see a boots on the ground type invasion of Taiwan any time soon. China simply does not have the amphibious assault ships to move the 100k+ troops across the ocean to carry it out and there is no intelligence suggesting that they are building that capability. Even if they did, those ships would be incredibly vulnerable during the crossing. At best they can attack by missiles and aircraft plus hit with suicide commando style raids while trying to blockade the island until it capitulates.

The commando raids happened since the split on both sides, and they didn't go anywhere. I don't see it happening anytime soon as long as the local population prefers their existing government instead of starting a revolution.

Let's say even if China did successfully capture Taiwan, it wouldn't be the end of the story because the US would definitely plot something of a local revolt right away. It would take China a LONG TIME to keep its own puppet government stable. It is much easier for them to leave Taiwan as is, and trade with them with incentives to keep them happy. They know they can't practically get Taiwan back in the near future (say 50 years) unless US collapse and drag Taiwan along with it, with Taiwan get into a big financial crisis and the only way out would be a bailout from China. This of course is almost impossible.

 

[Spitty]

I think the real question is "What is the tipping point for a war to go nuclear"
If a 'conventional' attack was successful against a US aircraft carrier what should the response be ?

The big fear has been for many years a war degrading into a nuclear attack on a homeland country and the MAD situation.
How can we have a 'good old fashioned war' and avoid it.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

So I guess "if" Taiwan want to go independent they will have to do it during Typhoon season, and then duck and cover in the air raid tunnels from fall to spring?

Remember Taiwan is independent. They're just not recognized as such by other countries like the US out of fear of loosing economic access to the Chinese mainland.

 

[PandaBear]

I think the real question is "What is the tipping point for a war to go nuclear"
If a 'conventional' attack was successful against a US aircraft carrier what should the response be ?

The big fear has been for many years a war degrading into a nuclear attack on a homeland country and the MAD situation.
How can we have a 'good old fashioned war' and avoid it.

Depends on if you can trust China's No First Use policy. I don't think any other country on earth have that policy, NATO specifically rejects that.

So I guess, if US didn't use nuke first?

 

[PandaBear]

Remember Taiwan is independent. They're just not recognized as such by other countries like the US out of fear of loosing economic access to the Chinese mainland.

Of course it is practially already independent, the whole "we must be independent" is really just a campaign slogan like the "they will pay for the wall" thing.

The typical "Taiwan must be independent" campaign all of a sudden die down as soon as the Ukraine war started... Nobody wants any escalation in a sensitive time like now. This time things can really hit the fan if not managed right.

 

[buster]

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Of course it is practially already independent, the whole "we must be independent" is really just a campaign slogan like the "they will pay for the wall" thing.

The typical "Taiwan must be independent" campaign all of a sudden die down as soon as the Ukraine war started... Nobody wants any escalation in a sensitive time like now. This time things can really hit the fan if not managed right.

On all sides we see misplaced nationalism which starts tugging on the strings of their deciders.

 

[Jetronic]

What I want to know is how hypersonic missiles will steer. Correct me if I'm wrong (my missile knowledge goes as far as pressing my Xbox joysticks to summersault my airplane 3 times to avoid a missile,) I feel like anything going that fast will be near impossible to steer except for minimal adjustments. That leaves a relatively minimal window for correction unless the missile was to slow down a lot - which then makes it vulnerable to CIWS; or to hope that the target's position is stationary/easy to assume.

Most likely the mechanism used to detect the target over the horizon can keep the missile course up to date throughout the flight profile.

Anti-ballistic missiles, like Patriot PAC-3 are kinetic interceptors, they need to physically hit the target. To do this they either need a slow target, or an extremely predictable flight path. Any manoeuvring will throw a wrench in the works at hypersonic speeds. And you only get 1 shot at it, it won't need to manoeuvre much at all, slight course corrections are enough. The plasma formed around the missiles make them stealthy aswell, the ABM might be flying blind at a presumed location.

 

[PimTac]

It’s good we have one working carrier in the region. The Gipper never quits.

 

[Jackson_Slugger]

For perspective, towards the end of WWII the US military did preliminary planning research for invading Japanese occupied Formosa (Taiwan) and found that they would need at least 500,000 soldiers/marines to do the job and might suffer 150K casualties because the coastline is the ****tiest amphibious warfare landing area of any in the world. There are few beaches and the islands are mountainous outcrops easily defended. By all accounts the whole point of a PLA offensive is to avoid the "scorched earth" tactics the Russians are using as it doesn't make much sense to conquer leveled cities and debris when you want to control the chip industry. Especially if you just create a massive insurgency of well educated and well armed citizens in the process...

Add to that high tech, very quiet diesel attack subs coming soon filled with Tomahawks and torpedoes as about 30,000 PLA soldiers and naval infantry floating in the Taiwan Straits isn't really a good look! It's nice to have hypersonic missiles, but when your basic navies antisubmarine warfare sucks and is decades behind NATO, it might not make much of a difference...

 

[Spitty]

Depends on if you can trust China's No First Use policy. I don't think any other country on earth have that policy, NATO specifically rejects that.

So I guess, if US didn't use nuke first?

So if China destroy an Aircraft carrier with a non nuke weapon what should be the response ?