Active housing inventory for sale is rising on a year-over-year basis in almost every state.

[GON]

Interesting chart, especially Nevada which seemed was a destination for many to migrate to.

What the chart doesn't show is a comparison to average inventories over the past 25 years. I suspect even though single family home inventories are rising year over year, overall single-family homes currently on the market are likely well below the 25-year average (speculation).

Additionally, every chart I look at shows single family home prices continuing to rise on a MACRO basis. The exception is the less desirable single-family home, the value of those homes are not rising when compared to a desirable home in the same subdivision, etc. With mortgage interest rates above six percent, growing inventory- people are no longer willing to pay full price for an undesirable home.

 

[Passport1]

I think a companion chart showing people are happy where they are living or not is missing.

 

[CKN]

I think a companion chart showing people are happy where they are living or not is missing.

That's not the issue. Affordability is. Just had a friend put their house up for sale in Utah-4,000plus square feet, completely refurbished, new roof, new heating and air, Trex deck, fully finished basement with kitchen, in short a very desirable home in a very desirable neighborhood. It's at $825,000 on the MLS. While a bargain compared to many other parts of the country-that's big bucks in Utah.
I can assure Utah is a very nice place to live.

 

[scoot]

Nothing of any quality on the market in my part of Michigan . Just the typical repossessions . Seems like people with a great interest rate are happy to hold on to it . Divorces are a constant turnover for housing , I think people are getting divorced and still living together . Lol

 

[GON]

Nothing of any quality on the market in my part of Michigan . Just the typical repossessions . Seems like people with a great interest rate are happy to hold on to it . Divorces are a constant turnover for housing , I think people are getting divorced and still living together . Lol

You reply is key to a lot of the rising inventory on a MACRO basis "Nothing of any quality on the market". Rising inventory is not of quality/ desirable homes on a MACRO basis.

Wife and I continue to look for a home in about a half dozen states. Quality homes are always under contract just days after being listed for sale.

 

[GON]

Another chart relevant to this thread:

 

[supton]

I think people are getting divorced and still living together . Lol

I bet you could, in some of the larger homes. Each person gets a floor, or a wing.

heck I wonder in how many marriages the man gets the basement and the wife the rest of the house, and they spend their time at home avoiding one another....

 

[AZjeff]

More houses for sale in our neighborhood now than any time since pre-C19. There are really no undesireable models that I've heard of in this development and all are built by the developer so quality is the same. Haven't seen any selling in days for over a year probably. Prices have come down slightly and time on market is 60+ days last I looked.

 

[GON]

More houses for sale in our neighborhood now than any time since pre-C19. There are really no undesireable models that I've heard of in this development and all are built by the developer so quality is the same. Haven't seen any selling in days for over a year probably. Prices have come down slightly and time on market is 60+ days last I looked.

AZJ,

Someone on BITOG asked me to post today's prices of the new construction 3 bed/ 2 bath home on 1 1/4 acre with a pond in Royal Palm Beach, Florida-- that I purchased in 1984 for $54k USD.

I posted the links to the homes currently on the market. The homes are all listed north of $500k USD. The only homes I found on the market that are not under contract are undesirable at a $500k+ USD price point. Not a single home on the market in this expansive sub-division was desirable.

I can't speak for other buyers', but no way am I paying $500k+ USD for a home at six percent interest, rising HOA fees, rising property taxes, and rising homeowners' insurance, unless the home punches almost every desirable ticket.

In August 2024 Wife and I paid five figures above listing price for a home in a not popular area. Simple reason, the home was desirable, something we could not find in over half a dozen states. This is an interim home for us. Because the home is desirable, we are confident we can sell the home quickly if/ when we chose to. Most homes in the subdivision look nice but will not sell the same day listed as we suspect ours may, because most every home is the subdivision truly are not desirable, not a reason to trigger a buy to make an offer in today's full price expected market.

Yes, desirable is in the eye of the beholder. Having a two-car garage that actually holds two full size cars. A driveway that is wider by no less than four feet than the garage doors. Nine-foot minimum ceilings. 40-inch front exterior door. I could go on and on. Post COVID, it is reasonable to assume many people purchased non desirable homes often at a premium, for numerous reasons. It is reasonable to suspect the home is actually not so desirable and may be a reason they are selling the home. When costs are high, money is tight and not overly plentiful--not everyone is fooled by "lipstick on a pig".

 

[alarmguy]

Looks like inventory is getting close to pre-Covid levels. This is the 10 year chart.

Here is the source to choose your own time period.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

 

[Dave Hess]

I wonder how many people that bought rental properties in the past 5 years are now trying to sell them ?

Here in Florida some people are desperate to sell their rentals and get out.

 

[GON]

I wonder how many people that bought rental properties in the past 5 years are now trying to sell them ?

Here in Florida some people are desperate to sell their rentals and get out.

Are single family home rental properties hard to sell when investment mortgage rates are above seven percent?

Many years ago, I recall many rental properties were only able to be sold with owner financing- banks generally would not finance them without a very hefty down payment. Maybe sller financing will be required to move single family home rental properties with investment property interest rates above seven percent?

 

[joekingcorvette]

I believe lots of people are buying even though the rates are high. I see people coming into my state from other southern states and money seems to be no object for them. Even the old homes or fixer uppers bring decent money. The buyers look at them like a 69 Camaro that needs a little restoration. The trick with high interest rates is to have a paid for home and sell it or have a lot of cash for a down payment. There are plenty of people out there with fat wallets in my state and homes are still selling for very premium prices.

 

[alarmguy]

I believe lots of people are buying even though the rates are high. I see people coming into my state from other southern states and money seems to be no object for them. Even the old homes or fixer uppers bring decent money. The buyers look at them like a 69 Camaro that needs a little restoration. The trick with high interest rates is to have a paid for home and sell it or have a lot of cash for a down payment. There are plenty of people out there with fat wallets in my state and homes are still selling for very premium prices.

Same here on the NC/SC Coast
I think maybe like AZ at some point inventory will start catching up with demand. It's insane still here, they cant get the roads and utilities in fast enough. I think there are 40,000 building permits issued in our county. Which is the fastest growing #1 in North Carolina. (dont tell anyone) Population up 26% in 5 years and seems to be growing faster now.

I can think of about 8000 new homes and communities going in near me off the top of my head as I type this. Some are already in the beginning stages of actual sales and move in's
Our community was stalled because the homes sold so fast they had to catch up with getting more roads and utilities in. So finally after 7 months new slabs about to be poured.

 

[scoot]

Same here on the NC/SC Coast
I think maybe like AZ at some point inventory will start catching up with demand. It's insane still here, they cant get the roads and utilities in fast enough. I think there are 40,000 building permits issued in our county. Which is the fastest growing #1 in North Carolina. (dont tell anyone) Population up 26% in 5 years and seems to be growing faster now.

I can think of about 8000 new homes and communities going in near me off the top of my head as I type this. Some are already in the beginning stages of actual sales and move in's
Our community was stalled because the homes sold so fast they had to catch up with getting more roads and utilities in. So finally after 7 months new slabs about to be poured.

How long can that growth continue before you say get me out of here too many people ? I like a slow pace of life some like it the other way .

 

[AZjeff]

Yes, desirable is in the eye of the beholder. Having a two-car garage that actually holds two full size cars. A driveway that is wider by no less than four feet than the garage doors. Nine-foot minimum ceilings. 40-inch front exterior door. I could go on and on. Post COVID, it is reasonable to assume many people purchased non desirable homes often at a premium, for numerous reasons. It is reasonable to suspect the home is actually not so desirable and may be a reason they are selling the home. When costs are high, money is tight and not overly plentiful--not everyone is fooled by "lipstick on a pig".

@GON, can you link me to the desirable house traits list? We've got the big garage and 10 foot ceilings covered but didn't even know a 40 inch door was a thing and am just happy to have a nice concrete driveway. Many in this development do have paver extensions installed off the sides of their driveway so they're trying to make their property more desirable and are in the know . I'd like to know what I don't know in case we ever move.

This development has been expanding for 20 years and is known as the solid value proposition in the general area. You don't buy here if you want high end custom. From 1400 to over 2500 sq ft all built to the same specs. When we built in 2018 you could spec everything in the house, Covid changed that now you buy the house however the developer spec'd it out, maybe change paint and carpet. 75% of the buyers have Cali plates. I think what is happening in this development is a good barometer of the market in central Az as it's been in existence so long and has a solid if unremarkable rep.

 

[Rmay635703]

I wonder how many people that bought rental properties in the past 5 years are now trying to sell them ?

Here in Florida some people are desperate to sell their rentals and get out.

Reusch that owns rentals all over the country dropped most of their inventory in Winnebago County.

And they were extremely aggressive starting at what I viewed as rediculous prices then dropping rapidly and negotiating down up to 40% percent off list until it sells usually in 3-4 weeks.

 

[GON]

@GON, can you link me to the desirable house traits list? We've got the big garage and 10 foot ceilings covered but didn't even know a 40 inch door was a thing and am just happy to have a nice concrete driveway. Many in this development do have paver extensions installed off the sides of their driveway so they're trying to make their property more desirable and are in the know . I'd like to know what I don't know in case we ever move.

This development has been expanding for 20 years and is known as the solid value proposition in the general area. You don't buy here if you want high end custom. From 1400 to over 2500 sq ft all built to the same specs. When we built in 2018 you could spec everything in the house, Covid changed that now you buy the house however the developer spec'd it out, maybe change paint and carpet. 75% of the buyers have Cali plates. I think what is happening in this development is a good barometer of the market in central Az as it's been in existence so long and has a solid if unremarkable rep.

AZJ, having to put in paver supplements on a two-car driveway to be able to have two cars in the drive, and exit the car without stepping on grass is a sign of a house that wasn't designed desirably from the start.

Nothing wrong with paver extensions, or concrete extensions. But for a home built in the last 20 years and have the smallest width driveway possible, simply to save the builder at max a few hundred dollars in materials, speaks volumes on how the rest of the house is likely built, how the subdivision, and township has low thresholds, etc. No drain tile off gutters on a new construction home, undesirable home. I can go on and on.

This video shows likely $800k plus USD homes that were blown over during construction by high winds. And it tells a bigger story, and a buyer like me can spot these homes a mile away of fancy features with poor foundation/ build. Undesirable.

Every single home in the below videos look like dream houses in pictures, advertisements, and to my Wife. Yet, I know they are undesirable.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Nothing wrong with paver extensions, or concrete extensions. But for a home built in the last 20 years and have the smallest width driveway possible, simply to save the builder at max a few hundred dollars in materials, speaks volumes on how the rest of the house is likely built, how the subdivision, and township has low thresholds, etc. No drain tile off gutters on a new construction home, undesirable home. I can go on and on.

I understand why you would want this - but around here you won't find it. The new builds are tightly controlled based on how much land is open for water to be absorbed - I have forgotten the technical term. You can only cover a certain percentage of your lot - the more you cover, the less house / patio / whatever you can have. A lot of new builds are still "Charleston style" which just means they have a non attached garage on an alley in the back - the house is near the street - so the highest amount of useable square feet is possible.

In some of the more desirable areas there bulldozing old homes and building homes with garage under the house, then 2 or 3 living stories to maximize square feet. The pics below show houses that went for $700K when built a couple years ago. The ones with a marsh view off the back were $1M+.

40 inch front door is nice but I never see it.

This is not silicone valley. Median income and such is right around average.

Land here is expensive. If you want an acre - your an hour from the city minimum. The city is not that large. I live way out of town so we have a more traditional build - but with the kids grown up and not caring about schools, I would like to move into town. But 4 flights of stairs are definitely not on my wish list. These would not have an elevator - but the nicer ones around the corner likely do. No idea what there worth - not on my paycheck anyway.

 

[GON]

I understand why you would want this - but around here you won't find it. The new builds are tightly controlled based on how much land is open for water to be absorbed - I have forgotten the technical term. You can only cover a certain percentage of your lot - the more you cover, the less house / patio / whatever you can have. A lot of new builds are still "Charleston style" which just means they have a non attached garage on an alley in the back - the house is near the street - so the highest amount of useable square feet is possible.

In some of the more desirable areas there bulldozing old homes and building homes with garage under the house, then 2 or 3 living stories to maximize square feet. The pics below show houses that went for $700K when built a couple years ago. The ones with a marsh view off the back were $1M+.

40 inch front door is nice but I never see it.

This is not silicone valley. Median income and such is right around average.

Land here is expensive. If you want an acre - your an hour from the city minimum. The city is not that large. I live way out of town so we have a more traditional build - but with the kids grown up and not caring about schools, I would like to move into town. But 4 flights of stairs are definitely not on my wish list. These would not have an elevator - but the nicer ones around the corner likely do. No idea what there worth - not on my paycheck anyway.

View attachment 272094

The builder gets away with that build because very ample buyer demand. Those home in the picture will get really old really quick for older homebuyers going up and down stairs. I bet the homeowner can't even open the door if a full size car without hitting the interior garage wall with his door.

Unless the pictured homes are waterfront, which apparently they are not, easy pass. No way I am buying a 1 million dollar home, new construction, new development (not a tear down lot), without a two car garage. Speaks volumes of what is really happening.