Active home inventory by state - current vs 2018/2019

[SC Maintenance]

Ineresting map - to me at least.

Explains some of the constant disagrement in home price direction. Depending on where you live you could see great supply constraints or supply gluts. All real estate markets are local.

I follow this analyst for stock market data - he normally covers equities in general, which is nice because its not the normal realtor cheerleading - just facts.

Source:

 

[thastinger]

Is "active inventory" houses for sale? Is it single family detached only?

 

[SC Maintenance]

Is "active inventory" houses for sale? Is it single family detached only?

I believe "active" listings are those single family homes (Detached, condo or townhome) currently available for sale. I believe contingent / pending are not counted.

 

[Speedbird001]

So, the greens = less supply = higher prices and/or faster sale correct?

Would be nice to have some more data like @thastinger mentioned (Also $)

I wonder how 30yr mortgage rates come in to play here? (I know families who are ready to move, but staying put because the rate driven new mortgage just blows out any gains from the sale and makes the new payment unaffordable.

FWIW: I was forced to sell and buy in '23 and it REALLY stings (Fingers crossed rates go under 5% within the next next few years)

 

[SC Maintenance]

So, the greens = less supply = higher prices and/or faster sale correct?

Would be nice to have some more data like @thastinger mentioned (Also $)

I wonder how 30yr mortgage rates come in to play here? (I know families who are ready to move, but staying put because the rate driven new mortgage just blows out any gains from the sale and makes the new payment unaffordable.

FWIW: I was forced to sell and buy in '23 and it REALLY stings (Fingers crossed rates go under 5% within the next next few years)

I presume the overlays your asking would be in his paid research - don't know. You can see it anecdotally in the headlines - price cuts in parts of Florida and Texas but not really anywhere else.

I believe the reventure app might also give it to you - but I have not tried it ($40 a month). I would pay if I were actively looking to buy.

If the NAR were such a benevolent controller of the information they would publish it

You might get your refi opportunity before the end of the year - but it will likely be a very short window. Its likely not going anywhere near where it was years ago though, without a massive recession and the fed goes back to buying MBS's. Given they want to IPO freddie and Fannie, I would say its going the other direction longer term.

 

[thastinger]

I believe "active" listings are those single family homes (Detached, condo or townhome) currently available for sale. I believe contingent / pending are not counted.

Well, they don't hardly build single family homes in Va anymore unless it is a custom house on your land. Everything being built around here is the massive 4 or 5 story condo or rental complexes that have retail on the ground level.

 

[Boomer]

By golly, everyone is leaving Texas and moving to Pennsylvania!!! We will soon be overrun with Amish cowboys!

 

[Zee09]

Funny in this area of Florida the inventory really disappeared. Actually much of it sold and I didn't expect that.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Funny in this area of Florida the inventory really disappeared. Actually much of it sold and I didn't expect that.

This is Ocala?

 

[rijndael]

There is also a game or two being played with listings and all of the upheaval in the MLS.

A lot of sales around me are private listed, or have a "coming soon", and go straight to sold.

 

[Zee09]

This is Ocala?

Palm Coast Fl
Just south of St. Augustine

 

[gfh77665]

A significant number of homeowners in my area have listed their homes not because they have a compulsion to sell out and move, but to "cash in" after property values have soared. If they get someone to bite, fine, they make a lot of profit, if not, that's fine too because they are happy where they are. People are certainly not fleeing TX.

 

[SC Maintenance]

A significant number of homeowners in my area have listed their homes not because they have a compulsion to sell out and move, but to "cash in" after property values have soared. If they get someone to bite, fine, they make a lot of profit, if not, that's fine too because they are happy where they are. People are certainly not fleeing TX.

I doubt anyone is fleeing. There is pretty good indication they have over-built in specific areas. Same with Florida.

How would one "cash in" if they were going to simply have to purchase another place to live? I have never understood this. Are they planning to rent for a while or something?

 

[gfh77665]

How would one "cash in" if they were going to simply have to purchase another place to live? I have never understood this. Are they planning to rent for a while or something?

Joe Sixpack buys a nice house in or near Austin, or in one of the booming suburbs of Dallas like Allen or Prosper. He bought his house 25-30 years ago at a reasonable price, or maybe during the national foreclosure crisis around 2008. Property values have tripled or quadrupled (or more) since then. His 250K investment then is worth 1.0M to 1.3M today. He loves his place, but figures he can sell it and profit 800K to 1.0M and move out to a rural area (and possibly retire) and buy a larger newer home with cash on more acreage for a fraction of the price.

The high dollar areas are clustered in certain areas in TX, but many other very reasonable areas are readily available to move to. Heck, I would do the same. I have a nice 300K two story brick home in a nice subdivision, but if someone offered me even 600K for it I would pack up tonight.

https://www.har.com/homedetail/14140-sawyer-ranch-rd-dripping-springs-tx-78620/8066652

https://www.har.com/homedetail/3112-tom-miller-st-austin-tx-78723/13078121

https://www.har.com/homedetail/1903-canyon-edge-dr-austin-tx-78733/9920166

 

[supton]

Hmm, I've long thought I'd sell too, if someone gave me 2x what my property was worth. Maybe a more, since I'd want to build what I wanted. I wouldn't want to, as I'd have to rent for a couple of years, lots of money lost to storage, etc--but for the right price? like, making it all "free" in the end?

But putting it up for a showing would mean having to vacuum and all that. No thanks, too much work.

 

[BigJohn]

We purchased our home 6 years before COVID when the housing market in Colorado Springs was hurting. We got 3,700sqft on 2.5 acres for $435k. Seven years later, the year after COVID, there was such an influx of people from CA, NY, IL, etc... and they brought all their expensive house equity and drove all the prices sky high. We sold for $875k. We had a chunk of equity and promptly moved to western Colorado, bought 23 acres and built. Best Real Estate decision we have ever made.

I will say... in my area, many properties have been on the market for a long time. Nothing is selling....

Higher interest rates are stifling sales.... $360k financed today at 6.5% is $2,800 with escrow. 4-5 years ago, that same house was $2,025. That's nearly $800 a month more, just because of interest.

Powell needs to cut rates.

.........

 

[gfh77665]

I have a small portfolio of rentals. I bought them during the foreclosure crisis. I have sold one, and about to list another. I'll never not renew a good long time renter, I tell them they can stay "for life" if they always stay on track. If one happens to become vacant though, I immediately think to cash it in. In addition to the rental income, they all have always gained value, 2x to 3x what I paid.

 

[alarmguy]

Good map, my opinion is ...
It shows how the Northeast areas are locked up. People not wanting to move because they have favorable low interest rates.
Seems like all who could move south (or the majority) already have. I do think, at least the coastal Carolinas that we will end up in an over built situation in the not too distant future. Maybe I am wrong but my county alone has 10s of thousands of building permits issued. Last I remember I think it was 40,000

Just in my area I bet without thinking to hard I can point out up to ten thousand new homes to go up within miles of me, roads in or in the construction phase in addition to actual homes being built. I dont know how this is sustainable but maybe I am wrong.

It will be an interesting 5 years. One thing for sure, nothing ever changes, Real estate has ALWAYS been cyclical. Thrown in Covid and that made the cycle more hard to predict.

 

[mikeduf]

Yeah that's a pretty map with colors! I wish my state of California would turn Red!
I digress, bye; I'm out

 

[alarmguy]

We purchased our home 6 years before COVID when the housing market in Colorado Springs was hurting. We got 3,700sqft on 2.5 acres for $435k. Seven years later, the year after COVID, there was such an influx of people from CA, NY, IL, etc... and they brought all their expensive house equity and drove all the prices sky high. We sold for $875k. We had a chunk of equity and promptly moved to western Colorado, bought 23 acres and built. Best Real Estate decision we have ever made.

I will say... in my area, many properties have been on the market for a long time. Nothing is selling....

Higher interest rates are stifling sales.... $360k financed today at 6.5% is $2,800 with escrow. 4-5 years ago, that same house was $2,025. That's nearly $800 a month more, just because of interest.

Powell needs to cut rates.

.........

This is where the payment is always the same.
Low rates, people get more for their homes.
High rates people get less for their homes.

RIght now it seems where you are, people need to slash their asking prices to match higher interest rates. IF the interest rates go lower, than they will ask higher home prices. It's really a simple formula and has been the same for 6 years.
Also the Fed cutting rates does not lower mortgage rates.