A Hypothetical For Discussion

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Let's say that GM, Ford and Chrysler announce that on May 1st 2021, each of them will have three all new EV's available for sale on their dealer's lots.
All three vehicles from each manufacturer will be priced within a couple hundred dollars of the Tesla model that they are to compete with. All three have a range comparable to the Tesla model that they are to compete with, have similar 0-60 and 60-0 times to the Teslas and all have scored high on crash testing.

All three models from each manufacturer have received glowing reviews from the automotive publications (that they also advertise with). One of them also wins the coveted Motor Trend Car Of The Year award (ha ha ha).

- How many customers in the market for an EV will buy one simply based upon brand loyalty ?
- How many customers will buy one because they hate Elon Musk for being the richest man in the world ?
- How many customers will NOT buy one for fear of the typical first year model bugs and buy a Tesla instead ?
- How will those vehicles be received by the EV consumer if they are not compatible with the Tesla charging stations ?
- Considering that from design to showroom floor for a new model typically takes 2 years, how far ahead of those 2021 GM, Ford and Chrysler EV's will Tesla be by May 1st of 2022 ?
- How long will GM, Ford and Chrysler take to show a profit on those models considering the above points and how many billions of dollars that it would have required them to spend to have those models even available for sale ?

I predict that it is going to be tough going for the Big Three in the EV market. European and Japanese manufacturers may fare better. Start ups like Nio may even take some market share from Tesla as they are starting from a clean slate and don't have to spend billions of dollars every year to continue to manufacture ICE vehicles.
 
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I'll seriously look at every new entrant as my RX400H is now getting long in the tooth and become problematic.

Brand loyalty is my least significant factor as brand quality and model quality rises and falls over time.

Brand leaders/ owners/ visionaries aren't a reason to buy, or exclude for me.

The problem everyone has (except tesla) is a comprehensive high speed charging network, and with everyone else at the very beginning this is tough hurdle to overcome.

Every Ice manufacturer has a margin problem with EV's. The more they sell the worse their bottom lines.
They also have capacity issues which is why you see partnering occurring like Honda/ GM.
 
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From what I’ve read, Stellantis is going to push the Alfa Romeo EV. Chrysler might get one rebranded for the US market.

Ford has their Mustang EV crossover and GovMo I haven’t a clue.

I think other brands are going to leap frog the Big 2.
 
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I kinda struggle with your hypothetical question, because the new EVs will not meet the Tesla range numbers.
EV range is, by far, the biggest gripe on Teslas and other EVs. Charging time is 2nd.
Regardless, people will buy them and love them. They will magically forget all the issues they had with Teslas. The Mustang Mach-e is the perfect example.

Of course, net net, this is a win for consumers as everyone will have to up their game.
This is a financial hit to other car makers who are forced to develop and manufacture EVs.
The problem for car companies who sell their new EV models to loyal customers is, the EV sale is taking a sale from one of their ICE cars.
 
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The RAM DT platform was developed with the idea that it would be electrified, so keep that in mind. The same goes with the new Durango and Grand Cherokee platform. The Pacifica platform, already available as a PHEV, I believe also shares this.
 
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Auto fan sites will be all over comparing these vehicle in ways ons school magazine simply cant.

EV dedicated bloggers, site, and testers like Bjorn Nyland give feedback on these cars that cuts through most marketing chatter quickly.

An existing platform electrified can never compete with a clean sheet design - especially in margin to the manufacturer.
 
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I'm not sure I understand the premise of the hypothetical... we have 9 new EVs? or 3 new EVs... ?

The premise is basically there are viable and good EV options, why would people avoid them?
 
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I'm not sure I understand the premise of the hypothetical... we have 9 new EVs? or 3 new EVs... ?

The premise is basically there are viable and good EV options, why would people avoid them?

Range is one. Another is what happens when a winter storm takes out the power to a entire region like it did in the British Columbia-Seattle-Portland one last night. A lot of Tesla owners are stuck right now. No ETA on power restoration.
 
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Range is one. Another is what happens when a winter storm takes out the power to a entire region like it did in the British Columbia-Seattle-Portland one last night. A lot of Tesla owners are stuck right now. No ETA on power restoration.

I can tell you what happens here - gas stations lose power and are out of business until power comes back on.
Do gas stations have back-up generators where you are?

Then it becomes a matter of how much fuel or energy you had in the vehicle prior to the shut down.
An ice with a 1/4 tank may be substantially worse off than a " full" BEV.

I have a whole house generator that runs on natural gas so I can charge a BEV during a power outage but I cannot get gasoline.


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Range is one. Another is what happens when a winter storm takes out the power to a entire region like it did in the British Columbia-Seattle-Portland one last night. A lot of Tesla owners are stuck right now. No ETA on power restoration.
Do you have home generators? My sister and BIL in Gig Harbor swear by their old Honda generator.
Power outages are not a problem here, but we have others.
 

DwightFrye

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My premise was that there would be 9 new EV's on the market from the big 3 US automakers that would compete with the Tesla S, X and Y models. And if they would have a chance of taking a significant market share away from Tesla.
Or, if consumer confidence in those brands, especially for an all new untried design that had a good chance of being rushed to market just to have something to sell in that category would be so low that the ROI would cripple those companies financially.
 
There is the old saying that if you put up a hotdog stand, put it beside an existing hot dog stand. Now that’s the place to get hotdogs. Another is “a rising tide raises all boats”. People will gain more interest as more cars arrive.

Having said that, when your stock price is wildly predicated on huge increases in production, it’s not good to have your competition arrive.

“What we lose per unit, we’ll made up in volume.” Good luck Elon.
 
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Tough to know. There's a lot of virtue signaling associated with Tesla. The domestics would be branded as Lincoln, Cadillac, and Chrysler?

The lack of "at home" charging is a big issue for apartment/condo dwellers, and one-car garage owners with multi-car households. This hinders EV adoption regardless of how many models are offered for sale.
 
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Tough to know. There's a lot of virtue signaling associated with Tesla. The domestics would be branded as Lincoln, Cadillac, and Chrysler?

The lack of "at home" charging is a big issue for apartment/condo dwellers, and one-car garage owners with multi-car households. This hinders EV adoption regardless of how many models are offered for sale.
The apartment/condo charging thing is a biggie around here. People want NEMA 14-50 recepticals installed in their garages and parking stalls.
And it's only gonna get bigger.
 
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The apartment/condo charging thing is a biggie around here. People want NEMA 14-50 recepticals installed in their garages and parking stalls.
And it's only gonna get bigger.

I’m sure they can work out a reasonable increase in rent/condo fees to pay for the installation. Payment for electricity can be digital or with card.
 
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I’m sure they can work out a reasonable increase in rent/condo fees to pay for the installation. Payment for electricity can be digital or with card.
It gets pretty funny. People run a long extension cord out their window to the car. And 110v gets you a whopping 4 MPH charge rate.
Of course they get into trouble for the extension cord...

When people ask me about the Model 3, I post 2 quetions:
1 - Can you afford this car? A Honda Civic might be a better choice.
2 - How you gonna charge?
 
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Range is one. Another is what happens when a winter storm takes out the power to a entire region like it did in the British Columbia-Seattle-Portland one last night. A lot of Tesla owners are stuck right now. No ETA on power restoration.
A couple of friends live in Sparks, Nevada, close to the Tesla battery plant. I only mention that because it's an interesting coincidence. They recently purchased a Tesla Y (or maybe the X) model.

Their home is solar powered, and they installed a couple of Tesla's Powerwalls.

Rain or shine, day or night, power outage or not, they're pretty well covered. They also have an ICE vehicle.

If you've got the $$$, juice isn't much concern. Just to put things in perspective, I drive a 10 year old Camry.
 
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The apartment/condo charging thing is a biggie around here. People want NEMA 14-50 recepticals installed in their garages and parking stalls.
And it's only gonna get bigger.
Ya I don't see how that's gong to happen any time soon. Newer condos/apartments are designed with residences on top of the garages. The older apartment complexes I'm sure a no different than what you have with multi-story buildings situated around large parking lots. No tenant is going to run 200-300' of extension cord. There's a fire risk.
 
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