Let's say that GM, Ford and Chrysler announce that on May 1st 2021, each of them will have three all new EV's available for sale on their dealer's lots.
All three vehicles from each manufacturer will be priced within a couple hundred dollars of the Tesla model that they are to compete with. All three have a range comparable to the Tesla model that they are to compete with, have similar 0-60 and 60-0 times to the Teslas and all have scored high on crash testing.
All three models from each manufacturer have received glowing reviews from the automotive publications (that they also advertise with). One of them also wins the coveted Motor Trend Car Of The Year award (ha ha ha).
- How many customers in the market for an EV will buy one simply based upon brand loyalty ?
- How many customers will buy one because they hate Elon Musk for being the richest man in the world ?
- How many customers will NOT buy one for fear of the typical first year model bugs and buy a Tesla instead ?
- How will those vehicles be received by the EV consumer if they are not compatible with the Tesla charging stations ?
- Considering that from design to showroom floor for a new model typically takes 2 years, how far ahead of those 2021 GM, Ford and Chrysler EV's will Tesla be by May 1st of 2022 ?
- How long will GM, Ford and Chrysler take to show a profit on those models considering the above points and how many billions of dollars that it would have required them to spend to have those models even available for sale ?
I predict that it is going to be tough going for the Big Three in the EV market. European and Japanese manufacturers may fare better. Start ups like Nio may even take some market share from Tesla as they are starting from a clean slate and don't have to spend billions of dollars every year to continue to manufacture ICE vehicles.
All three vehicles from each manufacturer will be priced within a couple hundred dollars of the Tesla model that they are to compete with. All three have a range comparable to the Tesla model that they are to compete with, have similar 0-60 and 60-0 times to the Teslas and all have scored high on crash testing.
All three models from each manufacturer have received glowing reviews from the automotive publications (that they also advertise with). One of them also wins the coveted Motor Trend Car Of The Year award (ha ha ha).
- How many customers in the market for an EV will buy one simply based upon brand loyalty ?
- How many customers will buy one because they hate Elon Musk for being the richest man in the world ?
- How many customers will NOT buy one for fear of the typical first year model bugs and buy a Tesla instead ?
- How will those vehicles be received by the EV consumer if they are not compatible with the Tesla charging stations ?
- Considering that from design to showroom floor for a new model typically takes 2 years, how far ahead of those 2021 GM, Ford and Chrysler EV's will Tesla be by May 1st of 2022 ?
- How long will GM, Ford and Chrysler take to show a profit on those models considering the above points and how many billions of dollars that it would have required them to spend to have those models even available for sale ?
I predict that it is going to be tough going for the Big Three in the EV market. European and Japanese manufacturers may fare better. Start ups like Nio may even take some market share from Tesla as they are starting from a clean slate and don't have to spend billions of dollars every year to continue to manufacture ICE vehicles.