200,000 miles is in fact rare, only 1% of vehicles reach it

[surfstar]

My family's % is more like 25% +
Mazda, Toyotas, Nissan, Acura - all 200k, most 300k plus, off the top of my head.
Oh, plus a Subaru, but you know - headgaskets. I like to exclude from the list if it required major engine or trans work.

 

[AutoMechanic]

I have seen plenty of cars with over 200,000 on them my Toyota included it’s almost at 300,000. I don’t think you will see any of the cars that are new today make it that far since most are disposable. I’m hoping my Fords, and Mazda will make it that far.

 

[Passport1]

That's nothin'. I've had several cars to reach 300K.

About 100K each.

 

[Creekside]

Some cars on that list many BITOGs wouldn't have a problem purchasing used with OVER 200K on them.

I have purchased most of my vehicles with over 200k. I look at the overall condition of the vehicle more than mileage usually.

 

[Chris142]

Something is not right. I spent my entire life working on 200k + cars.

I also live in an area where many people commute 200+ miles every day so that may be the difference.

 

[HyundaiAbuser]

How is Civic, Corolla, Camry, etc not on that list. Someone pulled that thing out of their rear end.

someone has to trade their civic camry or corolla in and those who take them to 200k typically want them until they crap out.

 

[supton]

Hmm. Sounds like the only real way is to somehow collect miles on the odo of cars actually registered. Mechanics only see cars that are broken (many high mile vehicles are probably owned by DIY'ers going for the last penny saved), dealerships only see low mile trade-ins.

There's over 200M vehicles in the USA with something like 17M new car sales. So every 10 years there is almost a full turning over of the fleet, no? Supposedly the average vehicle age is getting close to 12 years old--problem is, that's average, and takes into account all the 1960's vehicles on the road. I couldn't find median age (where half the vehicles on the road are older, the other half younger), but this link indicates that 25% of vehicles are 16 years old or older. But it doesn't say how many miles, so...?

[Same link indicates 280M vehicles with 14M sales for 2020, but 2020 was anything but a normal year. At 14M annual sales though it would take longer to turn the fleet over, so it might lend itself to the notion that not many are hitting 200k.]

 

[2EHA]

How is Civic, Corolla, Camry, etc not on that list. Someone pulled that thing out of their rear end.

crap resale value compared to SUVs and trucks, junkyards flooded with them

 

[supton]

crap resale value compared to SUVs and trucks, junkyards flooded with them

Wouldn't they be flooded since they are models with high sales?

 

[2EHA]

Wouldn't they be flooded since they are models with high sales?

yes and it doesn’t help resale 10-15 years down the line when they will be at 200k mileage

 

[ecotourist]

There is something odd about the description - “They analyzed over 11.8 million Pre-Owned cars sold in 2020, models that were not in production as a 2021 model year,”

They probably mean, "other than current model year vehicles" but they might also mean "vehicles that are no longer being made".

What they have measured is the mileage the last time a vehicle changed hands in a formal setting, and quite likely changed hands at a dealership at that. They're missing all the vehicles that are mile'd out and taken to, or even hauled away to a wrecker. I would think a wrecking yard would be a better place to find the final mileage on vehicles.

A collection of measurement of the wrong thing doesn't give the correct answer a question. I'd say the 2 part question we'd really like answered is "which vehicles (and what % of those vehicles) reach 200,000 miles by the time they're junked"

 

[Accent Abuser]

I’m sure rust gets many northern cars before the drivetrains are worn out.

Or wrecks. Not hard to total a 10 year old car with 120k on it. Someone hit me causing a literal fender bender that involved replacing the front right fender and buffing and painting the bumper. The cost was nearly $1500. Seemingly small amounts of damage can result in large repair costs.

 

[Rmay635703]

Or wrecks. Not hard to total a 10 year old car with 120k on it. Someone hit me causing a literal fender bender that involved replacing the front right fender and buffing and painting the bumper. The cost was nearly $1500. Seemingly small amounts of damage can result in large repair costs.

The percentage of cars totaled that are under 3 years old is quite surprising, the likelihood of wreck out looks like a downward slope with an uptick at middle age

 

[Accent Abuser]

The percentage of cars totaled that are under 3 years old is quite surprising, the likelihood of wreck out looks like a downward slope with an uptick at middle age

Well, when you add up the cost of repairing a car that has had airbags deploy, it's not surprising at all.

 

[CKN]

How is Civic, Corolla, Camry, etc not on that list. Someone pulled that thing out of their rear end.

Because people buy CUV's and SUVs?

 

[Pew]

According to Google, average car ownership in the US is 12 years while the average US driver does 13,500/year. At 13.5k miles/year, it'll take just under 14 years to reach 200k. I would think within the 14 years of ownership the owner would normally find the car boring and purchase a new one or it'll be mechanically broken.

Most of the cars on that list are very versatile and slightly expensive cars, most likely used to haul families around on trips or used as a taxi/limo service.

 

[CR94]

That thread title is misleading, as several others have pointed out.
The percentage with potential to exceed 200k, if they don't succumb to abuse, wreck, rust, etc., is much higher than 1%. So is the percentage of vehicles with which I've been acquainted, at least post-1980 models.
My (then former) Subaru was probably past 200k when last seen. My Mazda went over 600k. My brother and his family have had two Toyotas that went over 200k before they abruptly died, a Volkswagen with about 340k when it died, one Toyota still going at over 340k, and two others well on their way to 200k. I don't recall whether their Honda went that far before they gave up on it.

On another hand, none of our parents' vehicles even made it past 100k, except the two we inherited (1954 Chevy and 2000 Camry).

 

[javacontour]

The United States Of Used Cars

There are more than 250 million used cars on the road in the United States and every year, close to 40 million of those used cars change hands. Used-car sales volumes typically dwarf new-car sales. But how does the fleet of used cars for sale look in different parts of the country? We analyzed...

www.thecarconnection.com

While I realize the numbers are from 2014 I'm looking at the relative difference in market. For every new car sold, there are about 3 used car transactions. Those numbers from the article were 14 million new and 40 million used.

I don't know if 2020 was comparable, but if so, looking at 11.8 million used car sales is likely only about 1/3rd of the used market.

Also, not likely to be the portion of the used market where 200k mile cars go on sale or get traded.

So as others have suggested, it's hard to say if what they observe reflects how many cars actually go that far.

 

[FLNative]

Wow. Almost every one of my father's vehicles got to 200K. They were typically crown vic, or GM work van. GM work van 3-500K, crown vic, they die at 220-250K with the 4.6L, about 20-40K less with the 5.0 pushrod.

Definitely Surprised the Panther Platform.. Ford Crown Vic, Mercury Marquis, and Lincoln Town Car was excluded but perhaps because the last year was 2011 .. But know personally of several that have gone well over 200,000 .. My 2011 Crown Vic Police Interceptor has 107,000 and uses no oil between changes ..

 

[Ws6]

Definitely Surprised the Panther Platform.. Ford Crown Vic, Mercury Marquis, and Lincoln Town Car was excluded but perhaps because the last year was 2011 .. But know personally of several that have gone well over 200,000 .. My 2011 Crown Vic Police Interceptor has 107,000 and uses no oil between changes ..


View attachment 49928

My Dad used them for work. They tended to go 220-250K miles, and usually began burning oil at the 180K mark or so. Transmissions, they ate like candy. Usually go through 2-3 during that 220-250K. The rest? Held up really well. Diffs didn't die. Suspension didn't die, although they rattled and creaked like crazy due to the body on frame construction as the miles racked up. Shocks and struts made a big difference if you put some decent ones on. Air conditioner compressors liked to die. Alternators needed a replacement or two. Overall it was an interesting cross-section between "old school simple" and "new and more complex" that held up reasonably well.