My 2-story detached 2k sq ft home built in 1976 that I bought in '99 has the original Lennox 96k btu 4-burner furnace, natural draft. I think I changed the fan motor once, but I've never called in for service (not that I would, I'd fix it myself). These furnaces are not much more complicated than a bar-b-que. And the fan motors are not those krazy expensive ECM units that are succeptible to power-line transients.
I've adjusted the gas valve to get a very low flame to increase the duty cycle (ie reduce cycling) and keep a more even temp in the house, but still have good flame roll-out. The heat these things can put out are way more than the house needs at full gas flow even on cold winter nights (-10 to 0 F).
Yea, natural gas is cheap, your payback on a hi-efficiency furnace will take years, and the sensor/electronics breakdowns are going to happen. Same with tankless water heater. In the winter our incoming water temp is very cold, and the standby heat of my nat-gas direct-vent water tank is just radiating into my house anyways. My gas water tank requires no electricity to operate. In a power outage I'll still have hot water.