13 Real estate charts.............true or ?
- Thread starter Pablo
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Well certainly we see a boat load of people from the Northeast moving here on the coast of NC and SC
With that said, I am becoming more convinced that we may be on the road to an oversupply of homes. Too soon to say but I am seeing some shifts here in the Southeast Coastal area of North Carolina.
Some big builders have decided to pull out by that I mean, complete the phase of a large community without wanting to contract for the next phase. Homes are still selling but just a year ago they could not build them fast enough. Now they are all caught up. Still strong enough that the phases they decided not to move forward on other builders have stepped in.
Pricing - I notice they bring up Lennar discounts. Well, Im not so sure, at least in this area. By this I mean, I am not so sure how accurate builder discounting is to measure the market. Here is why. I noticed in some areas, when they moved onto the next phase they slashed options they were including in the homes AND also raised prices by around 15%... so then what happens is weekly and monthly sales come out slashing prices, making the deal look good but the net result I think is they still are making the same profit and the homes are selling at higher prices then the previous. Clever marketing is more like it. I would think the big builders profits are more of a measurement because of this. Let's also keep in mind that material costs have declined somewhat from post covid.
Ok, (yeah, I know, another long post)
I have noticed, actually shocked, how slow of a start a new slightly higher end community is getting off the ground. It's crazy, beautiful homes, well known builder (not national) plans for huge amenities, etc. They still have a few spec homes just sitting around for at least 6 months, nothing going on. I had family members looking there. I wouldnt even recommend it now. I would be affaid it will never be completed while they are still alive but it will one day, just right now, VERY slowly a house gets built and occupied and they have 1,500 or so more to go. Another community down the road to us is jsut about to come live with another few hundred homes, down the road from them another off the ground and going slowly. Then a 10 minute ride away another 5000 homes planned, a bit further 50 min ride towards Wilmington a 10,000 home community just filed for permits. I dont know but I do know, when we moved here in 2023 and went to contract in 2022 you had to jump on a home right away or you would have to wait for the next phase to be built. That is no longer the case.
Anyway time will tell, these are the impressions of my wife and I. Its too soon to say but I am almost certain we maybe getting to an over supply and not only that but massive communities are already on the books to be built that are just starting to get roads and utilities in.
With that said, I am becoming more convinced that we may be on the road to an oversupply of homes. Too soon to say but I am seeing some shifts here in the Southeast Coastal area of North Carolina.
Some big builders have decided to pull out by that I mean, complete the phase of a large community without wanting to contract for the next phase. Homes are still selling but just a year ago they could not build them fast enough. Now they are all caught up. Still strong enough that the phases they decided not to move forward on other builders have stepped in.
Pricing - I notice they bring up Lennar discounts. Well, Im not so sure, at least in this area. By this I mean, I am not so sure how accurate builder discounting is to measure the market. Here is why. I noticed in some areas, when they moved onto the next phase they slashed options they were including in the homes AND also raised prices by around 15%... so then what happens is weekly and monthly sales come out slashing prices, making the deal look good but the net result I think is they still are making the same profit and the homes are selling at higher prices then the previous. Clever marketing is more like it. I would think the big builders profits are more of a measurement because of this. Let's also keep in mind that material costs have declined somewhat from post covid.
Ok, (yeah, I know, another long post)
I have noticed, actually shocked, how slow of a start a new slightly higher end community is getting off the ground. It's crazy, beautiful homes, well known builder (not national) plans for huge amenities, etc. They still have a few spec homes just sitting around for at least 6 months, nothing going on. I had family members looking there. I wouldnt even recommend it now. I would be affaid it will never be completed while they are still alive but it will one day, just right now, VERY slowly a house gets built and occupied and they have 1,500 or so more to go. Another community down the road to us is jsut about to come live with another few hundred homes, down the road from them another off the ground and going slowly. Then a 10 minute ride away another 5000 homes planned, a bit further 50 min ride towards Wilmington a 10,000 home community just filed for permits. I dont know but I do know, when we moved here in 2023 and went to contract in 2022 you had to jump on a home right away or you would have to wait for the next phase to be built. That is no longer the case.
Anyway time will tell, these are the impressions of my wife and I. Its too soon to say but I am almost certain we maybe getting to an over supply and not only that but massive communities are already on the books to be built that are just starting to get roads and utilities in.
If what I'm seeing around here, as well as smelling the smoke from burning palm trees, I expect this is true.
Personally though, I would never own a home that is 10 feet from my neighbor. That's how they're building them here.
Personally though, I would never own a home that is 10 feet from my neighbor. That's how they're building them here.
Check the prices of U-Haul trucks and trailers and you will find the truth.
When I was moving out of CA to TX, the price for the biggest U-Haul truck was around $5.5k, and you couldn’t get one, mine was cancelled as there was nothing within 250 mile radius.
The price of that same truck from TX to CA was around $700 at the time. I even heard of them paying people to bring the trucks back to CA.
When I was moving out of CA to TX, the price for the biggest U-Haul truck was around $5.5k, and you couldn’t get one, mine was cancelled as there was nothing within 250 mile radius.
The price of that same truck from TX to CA was around $700 at the time. I even heard of them paying people to bring the trucks back to CA.
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I don't see the map as accurate for the current market. Using Fl alone as that is my only experience in the last 2 years. Florida is well oversaturated and highy overpriced homes are dropping about 25% or more in many geographical areas. We're looking Sarasota area, specifically Lakewood Ranch.
Florida has lost over 60k residents to the high flood insurance, overcrowding, and high HOA's. I sure don't see the maps reflection of more moving into FL right now. Many who can afford to wait have removed listings from MLS.
Florida has lost over 60k residents to the high flood insurance, overcrowding, and high HOA's. I sure don't see the maps reflection of more moving into FL right now. Many who can afford to wait have removed listings from MLS.
True or...?
Which part.
I think generally yes. People are moving from northeast to the South - much of it driven by retirement, although not all.
Places that have overbuilt (Texas, Florida, Carolina's) Housing prices are falling. Places where its difficult to build - either land or permitting issues - like Northeast, are holding or still rising. California is its own problem - many are leaving over affordability.
There is no housing "crash" and won't be because most have lots of home equity. If someone can't make their payments they just sell the house. Normal market dynamics supply / demand.
They also mix in Commercial RE. Different problem, but the issue being of most of those deals would never have worked without ZIRP, and now they do not. Not to mention WFH.
Go chase down one of the recent Chris Whalen interviews on spotify or youtube. Generally considered the expert in the financial side of this stuff (without the normal real estate emotion).
Which part.
I think generally yes. People are moving from northeast to the South - much of it driven by retirement, although not all.
Places that have overbuilt (Texas, Florida, Carolina's) Housing prices are falling. Places where its difficult to build - either land or permitting issues - like Northeast, are holding or still rising. California is its own problem - many are leaving over affordability.
There is no housing "crash" and won't be because most have lots of home equity. If someone can't make their payments they just sell the house. Normal market dynamics supply / demand.
They also mix in Commercial RE. Different problem, but the issue being of most of those deals would never have worked without ZIRP, and now they do not. Not to mention WFH.
Go chase down one of the recent Chris Whalen interviews on spotify or youtube. Generally considered the expert in the financial side of this stuff (without the normal real estate emotion).
New Mexico is interesting as it falls into the moving from category. My dad was in Las Cruces for a work contract for a few years and from the sound of the locals they were all worked up due how many people were moving there. At the Air Races a number of locals from Roswell said that the town is growing leaps and bounds. They now have two public high schools a private high school and a military academy. Maybe overall more are leaving. I know Albuquerque has higher than average crime.
So long as they don't bring the voting habits with them that made them want to leave to begin with.
SO true! When we were looking in the Jacksonville area both North and South of the city... maybe west too.
We were looking at lots as some homes already built. The ones that were built you literally could look out the window on the side of the home and see directly into the house next to you. Correct, 5 feet from the property line, 2 homes 10 feet apart.
So when looking at the lots we were trying to find the RARE lot that might have a little more space between the home.
Threw in the towel and ended up in NC. Not that I dont love Florida. I do but ... I guess they didnt love me and what I was willing to spend. Also out criterion was to stay very north Florida so it was still drivable to my kids homes.
So, bring Juno?
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Bring Juno and take Chimmie back with you
Denver has had its average house transaction price go from $675,000 last year to $655,000 this year. So not exactly a huge slide.
Quite informative for the general direction. A more in depth analysis would have to include the % moving. For instance, California has 40 million people so a large percentage would be huge number of people that would dwarf the number of people moving between other states. Florida has just over 1/2 as many people.
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It's not so much voting habits...it's urban vs. suburban and rural. The higher the population density, the more liberal voters tend to become.
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