Where Is The EV Sweet Spot?

[John105]

The EV sweet spot is not buying an EV.

Agreed but at the same time I’m not understanding the cell phone analogy. I got a iPhone 13 Pro 256 for $309 new no trade, the day the 14 pro was launched. Why do I need to get used? Yes it was locked for a year as I got it from Verizon and have verizon service.

 

[97prizm]

What is the EV sweet spot?

The exact same place where you'll find a sweet spot on a cell phone.

About 10 years ago I got a Galaxy Note II from a guy who worked as an execuitive at Home Depot. They had given it to him with all the bells and whistles, brand new, for about $750 back then (about $1300 in 2024 dollars).

Two years later when it was no longer popular or on the cutting edge of cell phone technology, he sold it to me for only $200 (Thank you Craigslist!). I even got a nice protective case, a side phone holster (which was all the rage 10 years ago), and durable chargers for the phone and car.

I kept it for five years and sold it for $100. Then I bought a couple of small beater phones that cost me nothing in the end over the next year. When I saw the right opportunity? I did the same thing.

This time it was an LG G5 that was nearly $700 brand new. This one cost me only $180 and came with a boatload of extras. Four years later? I sold it for $100.

It cost me less than $200 to have a perfectly nice cell phone for nearly 10 years. With a perfectly nice EV? It's the same exact formula. Unless you're a hardcore EV guy who likes blowing your financial brains out for the technology or the coolness factor.

Do your bank account a favor. Don't be that guy. He's a schmuck! Instead get an EV that will do the job perfectly well for five years. Let the fashionista take the hit.

Do you have a garage? Is a lot of your driving in-town? This 2015 Nissan LEAF is the rolling version of a high quality, low cost cell phone An enjoyable EV without the high cost and wealth destruction that comes with 'newness'.

Right now I have a 2015 Nissan LEAF S that has under 32,000 miles on it and 12 out of 12 bars thanks to it being equipped with the durable 'Lizard' battery. The range is a bit over 80 miles. But if you have a garage and are willing to set the timer so that it keeps performing at an 80% to 20% cycle, this LEAF with will comfortably give you all the in-town driving you realistically would ever want or need.

The price at my dealership near Atlanta? $7995 and if my customer qualifies for the 30% used car tax credit... it ends up costing them just under $5600. There are other EVs and PHEVs that have already fallen off the radar which offer similar value propositions. The Honda Clarity, Honda Insight, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and Chevy Bolt are all classic examples I see every week at the wholesale auctions.

So let's say you kept this LEAF for five years of in-town driving at 8,000 miles a year, and then sold it for $3500 with around 75,000 miles on it? The cost of ownership? Insanely low. By my calculations it ranges to about 20% to 30% of the average.

Less than $500 a year in depreciation ($420).

Charging costs that are 50% to 80% cheaper than gas, and if you are lucky enough to live where electric companies offer free overnight charging? You're easily saving over $5,000 a year in fueling alone over five years.

That's exactly where the sweet spot is in today's EV market. Buy a well kept model that fits your needs after the fleeting popularity has subsided. Keep it for above five years. Sell it at a reasonable price. Rinse! Repeat!

And the punchline is that this method works for a non-EV too. It's just that government subsidies and media driven unpopularity are making some EVs cheaper than where they would normally be.

Electronics have followed a fairly standard curve over the last few decades. Every 18 months or so the performance doubles, and the price is cut in half. If you look at wifi routers as an example the current fastest one with the best everything and options galore is significantly more expensive than one that most of the population can use thats significantly less expensive.

 

[supton]

Agreed but at the same time I’m not understanding the cell phone analogy. I got a iPhone 13 Pro 256 for $309 new no trade, the day the 14 pro was launched. Why do I need to get used? Yes it was locked for a year as I got it from Verizon and have verizon service.

Not to derail but did you really get it for $309? or did you get it for $309 plus whatever you pay per month on that bill? Few years ago I did buy a used iPhone for I think $225, but put it onto Tracfone and so it was in no way subsidized. Maybe your $309 phone was $309, I'm not sure.

Actually, since automakers have been flirting with subscription services lately, I'm not sure it's not completely different. Sounds like the OEM's wouldn't mind you being locked into a plan.

 

[ecotourist]

I will probably keep the Tesla Model 3 until its (or my) wheels fall off. The distances here are short. We took a "really long" local trip last week and got down from 90% to 41%. So it can lose a lot of range before it would matter.

My Accord is getting old and I may eventually replace it with a (probably used) Lexus ES 350 or GS 350 for long distance drives. On the other hand older cars seem to be built better so I may just keep the Accord going. Decisions, decisions.

 

[Brons2]

Where is the EV sweet spot?

The exact same place where you'll find a sweet spot on a cell phone.

About 10 years ago I got a Galaxy Note II from a guy who worked as an execuitive at Home Depot. They had given it to him with all the bells and whistles, brand new, for about $750 back then (about $1300 in 2024 dollars).

Two years later when it was no longer popular or on the cutting edge of cell phone technology, he sold it to me for only $200 (Thank you Craigslist!). I even got a nice protective case, a side phone holster (which was all the rage 10 years ago), and durable chargers for the phone and car.

I kept it for five years and sold it for $100. Then I bought a couple of small beater phones that cost me nothing in the end over the next year. When I saw the right opportunity? I did the same thing.

This time it was an LG G5 that was nearly $700 brand new. This one cost me only $180 and came with a boatload of extras. Four years later? I sold it for $100.

It cost me less than $200 to have a perfectly nice cell phone for nearly 10 years. With a perfectly nice EV? It's the same exact formula. Unless you're a hardcore EV guy who likes blowing your financial brains out for the technology or the coolness factor.

Do your bank account a favor. Don't be that guy. He's a schmuck! Instead get an EV that will do the job perfectly well for five years. Let the fashionista take the hit.

Do you have a garage? Is a lot of your driving in-town? This 2015 Nissan LEAF is the rolling version of a high quality, low cost cell phone An enjoyable EV without the high cost and wealth destruction that comes with 'newness'.

Right now I have a 2015 Nissan LEAF S that has under 32,000 miles on it and 12 out of 12 bars thanks to it being equipped with the durable 'Lizard' battery. The range is a bit over 80 miles. But if you have a garage and are willing to set the timer so that it keeps performing at an 80% to 20% cycle, this LEAF with will comfortably give you all the in-town driving you realistically would ever want or need.

The price at my dealership near Atlanta? $7995 and if my customer qualifies for the 30% used car tax credit... it ends up costing them just under $5600. There are other EVs and PHEVs that have already fallen off the radar which offer similar value propositions. The Honda Clarity, Honda Insight, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and Chevy Bolt are all classic examples I see every week at the wholesale auctions.

So let's say you kept this LEAF for five years of in-town driving at 8,000 miles a year, and then sold it for $3500 with around 75,000 miles on it? The cost of ownership? Insanely low. By my calculations it ranges to about 20% to 30% of the average.

Less than $500 a year in depreciation ($420).

Charging costs that are 50% to 80% cheaper than gas, and if you are lucky enough to live where electric companies offer free overnight charging? You're easily saving over $5,000 a year in fueling alone over five years.

That's exactly where the sweet spot is in today's EV market. Buy a well kept model that fits your needs after the fleeting popularity has subsided. Keep it for above five years. Sell it at a reasonable price. Rinse! Repeat!

And the punchline is that this method works for a non-EV too. It's just that government subsidies and media driven unpopularity are making some EVs cheaper than where they would normally be.

Yeah whatever, the phone has to have software support, or you are the schmuck. I work in cybersecurity and the threat landscape out there is worse all the time. I mean you can do whatever you want but I'm going to keep a phone in my pocket that has monthly OS updates.

Maybe if you can root it and get regular community updates, that might also be acceptable to me if it's a popular model that has a lot of custom ROMs for it that get security patching.

I know this was supposed to be about EVs but your example is awful, if you don't like software vulnerabilities, like I don't.

 

[PandaBear]

Where is the EV sweet spot?

The exact same place where you'll find a sweet spot on a cell phone.

About 10 years ago I got a Galaxy Note II from a guy who worked as an execuitive at Home Depot. They had given it to him with all the bells and whistles, brand new, for about $750 back then (about $1300 in 2024 dollars).

Two years later when it was no longer popular or on the cutting edge of cell phone technology, he sold it to me for only $200 (Thank you Craigslist!). I even got a nice protective case, a side phone holster (which was all the rage 10 years ago), and durable chargers for the phone and car.

I kept it for five years and sold it for $100. Then I bought a couple of small beater phones that cost me nothing in the end over the next year. When I saw the right opportunity? I did the same thing.

This time it was an LG G5 that was nearly $700 brand new. This one cost me only $180 and came with a boatload of extras. Four years later? I sold it for $100.

It cost me less than $200 to have a perfectly nice cell phone for nearly 10 years. With a perfectly nice EV? It's the same exact formula. Unless you're a hardcore EV guy who likes blowing your financial brains out for the technology or the coolness factor.

Do your bank account a favor. Don't be that guy. He's a schmuck! Instead get an EV that will do the job perfectly well for five years. Let the fashionista take the hit.

Do you have a garage? Is a lot of your driving in-town? This 2015 Nissan LEAF is the rolling version of a high quality, low cost cell phone An enjoyable EV without the high cost and wealth destruction that comes with 'newness'.

Right now I have a 2015 Nissan LEAF S that has under 32,000 miles on it and 12 out of 12 bars thanks to it being equipped with the durable 'Lizard' battery. The range is a bit over 80 miles. But if you have a garage and are willing to set the timer so that it keeps performing at an 80% to 20% cycle, this LEAF with will comfortably give you all the in-town driving you realistically would ever want or need.

The price at my dealership near Atlanta? $7995 and if my customer qualifies for the 30% used car tax credit... it ends up costing them just under $5600. There are other EVs and PHEVs that have already fallen off the radar which offer similar value propositions. The Honda Clarity, Honda Insight, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and Chevy Bolt are all classic examples I see every week at the wholesale auctions.

So let's say you kept this LEAF for five years of in-town driving at 8,000 miles a year, and then sold it for $3500 with around 75,000 miles on it? The cost of ownership? Insanely low. By my calculations it ranges to about 20% to 30% of the average.

Less than $500 a year in depreciation ($420).

Charging costs that are 50% to 80% cheaper than gas, and if you are lucky enough to live where electric companies offer free overnight charging? You're easily saving over $5,000 a year in fueling alone over five years.

That's exactly where the sweet spot is in today's EV market. Buy a well kept model that fits your needs after the fleeting popularity has subsided. Keep it for above five years. Sell it at a reasonable price. Rinse! Repeat!

And the punchline is that this method works for a non-EV too. It's just that government subsidies and media driven unpopularity are making some EVs cheaper than where they would normally be.

I understand where you are getting this idea at, but there is a major concern:

People buy vehicles for their worst case need, not average or best case need. Most people don't buy one vehicle that can ONLY work for in town driving and keep it only for 5 years to save money. Most people would buy a vehicle for their worst case need plus a huge safety margin to start with, then expect this need to be met till the vehicle died or they have a change of need.

80 miles range mean most people would buy it only to work somewhere 40 miles max, with on site charging during work hours. I have seen coworker who had to ask for ride once a month because they were too busy to charge during work hour, or got stuck in traffic jam with AC on, and couldn't get home. This already assume they have a gas car at home that could drive them somewhere far away.

The competition for this 80 mile range vehilce is an unreliable gas car with no residual value. Say you have a car that would be ok if not getting stuck in traffic, you can keep this car around for short commute, but you don't trust it for long trip. This car is already near end of life and is worth 3k only, you can keep it indefinitely and pay a bit of gas, even as a scrap it would work 1k. You might be better off driving this car than buying a Leaf. One has questionable engine / transmission, the other has questionable battery, pick your poison.

The other alternative is, just keep driving your gas car with poor fuel economy. Your extra 10mpg lost is probably cheaper than your EV depreciation if you only have a 40 mile commute. You may save enough in insurance and depreciation alone to pay for your extra gas cost, and you don't need to worry about parking and range anxiety.

I personally believe unless you have DIY battery swap, we will always have range anxiety and we will never accept EV depreciation being high, and we will always be buying new, selling worn out EV to 3rd world to rebuild battery for their local use (or sell them to small island residents for local use only).

 

[PandaBear]

Yeah whatever, the phone has to have software support, or you are the schmuck. I work in cybersecurity and the threat landscape out there is worse all the time. I mean you can do whatever you want but I'm going to keep a phone in my pocket that has monthly OS updates.

Maybe if you can root it and get regular community updates, that might also be acceptable to me if it's a popular model that has a lot of custom ROMs for it that get security patching.

I know this was supposed to be about EVs but your example is awful, if you don't like software vulnerabilities, like I don't.

I used to believe in buying older obsoleted HW as well, until I realized driver and security support these days kill most hardware rather than performance or parts failure.

Data centers had to dump a bunch of hardware back when Intel had a security flaw they couldn't fix, and those hardware were perfectly functional otherwise. They end up in China being desoldered into "gaming" boards so budget gamers can game for cheap using former data center Xeons with weird combo of parts.

 

[JeffKeryk]

There's another component to the equation.... Never buy a sensible car!
All good.

 

[John105]

Not to derail but did you really get it for $309? or did you get it for $309 plus whatever you pay per month on that bill? Few years ago I did buy a used iPhone for I think $225, but put it onto Tracfone and so it was in no way subsidized. Maybe your $309 phone was $309, I'm not sure.

Actually, since automakers have been flirting with subscription services lately, I'm not sure it's not completely different. Sounds like the OEM's wouldn't mind you being locked into a plan.

I just looked up the exact numbers.

The monthly is $23.61/mo which is $849.99, the retail price in Sept. 2022.

There is a credit of $14.99/mo, making the monthly net amount $8.62/mo.

I multiplied by 36 and it’s $310.32. For some reason I thought it was $309 but it’s $310.

The $14.99/mo credit is paid over 36 mos, so if cancelled today, I’d still owe $23.61 times 18. That’s the catch. It’s a great price for a new phone with no trade, but you need to keep service 36 mos.

Also, I tried to lower my monthly to $40 for service (there are addl plan discounts it’s me, my mom, and wife), and I got a warning that I cannot make the change without forfeiting the equipment ($14.99/mo) discount. That’s how it works basically. It’s a spin on the old plans where there was a 2 year contract and subsidized device discount off retail…

Btw I’m the POC on my co’s corporate account. I don’t have a co phone. We’d all cry if I told you what a iPhone 14 Pro 512 cost for preorder. Put it this way, not much more than what I am paying on the 13. This notion of $1000+ is completely fabricated

 

[PandaBear]

Looking at life in a bigger picture, it is always about risk vs return. When you invest you always have to ask a reward premium for riskier stuff despite the average return and risk being the same. If you buy junk bonds you expect higher return, even if you factor in the average scenarios. If you look at insurance, you likely have to pay extra vs self insure, when looking at how much money insurance make (say 1%-9%) you could have save it by not buying insurance over 100 years.

Buying a less reliable or lower range vehicle is always going to be cheaper, but is it the better deal, can you handle the risk of a lemon or getting stuck somewhere? People tend to pay extra to feel safe and not get stuck. People already do this by buying a truck with towing capacity even if they don't tow, or only tow once a year. I don't see how people willingly buy a lemon because they can get a good deal, they usually buy it because they couldn't afford the more reliable ones. This human nature is why short range or iffy EV is a "good deal".

 

[Brons2]

There's another component to the equation.... Never buy a sensible car!
All good.

Definitely applies when it comes to SUVs vs Minivans. Never mind that minivans are more practical and can carry more gear for most of the driving public, have lower entry points for kids and seniors, get better mileage, and so on...

 

[dogememe]

The 2017 Bolt I bought recently had the battery replaced under recall and is warrantied until 2030. That's a pretty sweet spot.

Yep, THIS is what I consider the EV sweet spot and that's why I drive a 2017 Bolt myself.

Compared to the Leaf you get:
-Longer range
-Liquid cooled battery that should last longer
-CCS1 that will soon have access to Tesla Supercharger network (although you have to be careful, on earlier Bolts DC Fast Charging was optional and there are occasionally ones out there without it) instead of Chademo port which is dead and rare.
-Better battery warranty (assuming the battery was replaced under recall which most were) - I have another 7 years and 95K-ish miles warranty)

At that point, I think the only thing the Leaf has going over the Bolt is purchase price. Yes, it's cheaper. But it's cheaper for a reason and I don't think those reasons are great.

 

[Torrid]

I just looked up the exact numbers.

The monthly is $23.61/mo which is $849.99, the retail price in Sept. 2022.

There is a credit of $14.99/mo, making the monthly net amount $8.62/mo.

I multiplied by 36 and it’s $310.32. For some reason I thought it was $309 but it’s $310.

The $14.99/mo credit is paid over 36 mos, so if cancelled today, I’d still owe $23.61 times 18. That’s the catch. It’s a great price for a new phone with no trade, but you need to keep service 36 mos.

Also, I tried to lower my monthly to $40 for service (there are addl plan discounts it’s me, my mom, and wife), and I got a warning that I cannot make the change without forfeiting the equipment ($14.99/mo) discount. That’s how it works basically. It’s a spin on the old plans where there was a 2 year contract and subsidized device discount off retail…

Btw I’m the POC on my co’s corporate account. I don’t have a co phone. We’d all cry if I told you what a iPhone 14 Pro 512 cost for preorder. Put it this way, not much more than what I am paying on the 13. This notion of $1000+ is completely fabricated

Yep, that's how they get us now that we no longer have contracts. It ends up being well more expensive than a break fee.

 

[John105]

Yep, that's how they get us now that we no longer have contracts. It ends up being well more expensive than a break fee.

With corporate, the standard is still 2 years. But, say with an iPhone launch, after it cools down, 1 year and 2 year are the same. And a high end iPhone is about $550, with the contract, maybe 4 mos after release.

How often can we say it? We consumers allow it, by showing demand. Corporate won’t. So different rules of engagement.

Like the hairless ape saying, this is the one about consuming and destroying…

P.s. I once saw a 2 gen old brand new top of the line Galaxy, $9.99. I remember thinking I’d love to get that price. eBay is like $500+. What if I pay via CC but it’s breaking the rules at my co.

 

[alarmguy]

Agreed but at the same time I’m not understanding the cell phone analogy. I got a iPhone 13 Pro 256 for $309 new no trade, the day the 14 pro was launched. Why do I need to get used? Yes it was locked for a year as I got it from Verizon and have verizon service.

Yeah, I don’t wanna sidetrack the thread either but I had to throw in when the iPhone 13 came out, a T-Mobile special magenta 55+ plan around the holidays gave us two new iPhone 13s for our old iPhone XR and iPhone 11
Our cost was about $325 for BOTH new iPhone 13s and of course, the two old phones I mentioned.
If we don’t keep T-Mobile service for two years, we will owe more than that 325 because they give you 24 bill credits on each monthly bill. Anyway it’s two years now and we’re done

 

[John105]

I’m thinking about the sweet spot topic. I was told Porsche 911, 5 years old. An assumption is that many cars are not driven daily and often low miles. I would say Lexus LS430 which I own, 10 years. Assumption it’s a very reliable car, cheap to DIY, and generally is proven to last multiples of 100k.

My buddy claimed Lincoln Navigator 4 years—ok back the truck up. He said he got his for 40k when it listed got 72k and 2 years old. He wished he had paid less. His theory is depreciation. But I still look at it like a stock. If you don’t sell it may not really matter.

Long story short I feel if reliable, sweet spot is a higher age. If not, lower age. Since I don’t know EVs (I didn’t even know what the thing under the door where you plug it in was called until it was on Jeopardy). There seem to be more variables than with gas vehicles. My coworker had a top of the line Tesla 3 that Tesla could not fix and they took the car back. How does that affect the sweet spot to be without for 3 mos? I dunno

 

[SC Maintenance]

I like the concept. I could see myself buying such an animal as my first EV to try.

However, to play devils advocate - 80 mile range is pretty low. What is the real advantage of such a vehicle vs say a $8000 Prius. Yes it would have more miles and maybe be older at that price, but they seem to last forever, repairs are fairly inexpensive even if it needs a battery, and you can drive as long as your willing to keep adding gas?

There is actually one for sale not far from me. How does one determine if it has the "lizard" battery?

 

[JeffKeryk]

80 miles, while OK for general daily use, would be a deal breaker for me. I charge our car to 200 miles so I can jump in and go where I want. For me, our car is the minimum acceptable from a range standpoint.

Might not be a fair analogy, but it is like cheap tools; they work OK much of the time, but I need "room to move", as John Mayall might say.
If I wanted a starter EV, I would check out used Model 3 local inventory and even Hertz. Could be a great opportunity.
Hertz local store has 2022 3's starting at $23K. Std Range 3's around here start under $20K.

 

[Ws6]

The EV sweet spot is not buying an EV.

Some of us enjoy evolving.

You've lost 40% or $1.04/mile driven in how long of ownership? How does that compare to a $63k comparable age and miles ICE car?


Agree that "drive it til the wheels fall off" is lowest cost of ownership but few actually do it. I don't and you don't seem to. I don't need to love the heck out of a car or need to do 0-60 in 3 seconds to get groceries or take a dog to the vet or whatever. I love a vehicle that matches my needs, if my needs change not afraid to change vehicles.

I cannot fathom how my ev6gt would fail to meet evolving needs.

As for loss comparison, my Acura rdx was $55k MSRP and worth $38k or so, as well, same hypothetical miles, but a 2022 model.

 

[Snagglefoot]

I can kind of see why the Leaf is cheap though, its a pretty small group of people it works for. You need to live in a small to medium size town, work in the same town, have charging available at home, have a second car with range to leave town, not be in too cold a climate as the S model just has resistance heat... But if it works for you, it is a pretty good deal!

I'm kind of thinking of a used plug in hybrid, as a short range EV isn't really going to cut it for us even as a second car. The numbers work for something like the Ford C-max energi, or a Volt, if the car doesn't need major drivetrain related repairs to 12 years or 200k miles or beyond.

When I lived in Calgary, my world generally was driving to work about 5 miles and ruining errands to the big box stores at the local mall. Even in a city of a million people it’s possible to have most of the amenities close by, like a “town” within a city. The Leaf would have been fine for that job. The latest Leaf ad, as usual, listed the cheapest price with the biggest battery together. ( they always do that). It was $28,000 and the largest battery was 60 kWhrs for a range of 212 miles. For commuters out there, tally up your daily miles and see if a Leaf would fit.