Weather reporting has jumped the shark

BrianF said:
I think we were warned last year that we are going to have a hor summer and further risks of forest fires. I wonder how many climate changes we need because we have had a cool summer with plenty of precipitation. I signed up for global warming years ago but am still waiting....
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Wednesday evening, March 1st, 1989 ... a bunch of us are sitting around in the dressing room after a spirited hockey game, and it's -30 C outside. One of the guys says (with dressing-room expletives deleted) "Where's this global warming they keep talking about?"

I know, one shouldn't generalize from one cold day, but -30 in March was crazy.
 
I'll give you today's weather report for where I am. Sunny skies, beautiful day, 57°F thanks to 40 mph wind gusts. Water temperature 54°F. So it's beautifully miserable.
 
Getting my 1982 Diesel suburban to start in a real -40F was a bit harrowing back in college, oddly my old rust bucket was one of the only vehicles to start.
 
OVERKILL said:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-48-hour-26c-33019020
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Since when is 26C being "blasted" by a "heatwave"? We are getting 34C this week, and that's hot, but not atypical for southern Ontario. I assume the media will sensationalize that accordingly.

This image sums up this approach to turning the weather into fear porn quite well, IMHO:
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And of course Canada isn't immune to the same stupidity:
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Ermagerd! Not seasonally normal temperatures that approach comfortable! Somebody turn down the blast furnace, we are all going to die!

And shocker, trust in the media is at an all-time low, and yet they don't see the correlation?
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Meanwhile in Lynn Lake Manitoba; it’s 40F
 
vavavroom said:
I'll give you today's weather report for where I am. Sunny skies, beautiful day, 57°F thanks to 40 mph wind gusts. Water temperature 54°F. So it's beautifully miserable.
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Gasp!! That's socks and sleeves weather!!

I'm reminded of some of my wife's Hawaiian relatives who came out to Seattle one year for Christmas. It was hard not to chuckle at them when they were putting on scarves and mittens to go out to the car when it was mid 40s out.
 
Phoenix tv weather has heat warnings above 110. They’ve been reporting endlessly that Arizona is 2 degrees hotter than 100 years ago the horror 🥵

Phoenix locals talk I know about the high temps were bad for tourism in the summers so the official thermometer was moved from chest high to up a pole and dropped a few degrees. 🤣 it still goes into the 100 teens lots.
 
ripcord said:
Gasp!! That's socks and sleeves weather!!

I'm reminded of some of my wife's Hawaiian relatives who came out to Seattle one year for Christmas. It was hard not to chuckle at them when they were putting on scarves and mittens to go out to the car when it was mid 40s out.
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Acclimatization takes time.
 
AZjeff said:
Phoenix tv weather has heat warnings above 110. They’ve been reporting endlessly that Arizona is 2 degrees hotter than 100 years ago the horror 🥵

Phoenix locals talk I know about the high temps were bad for tourism in the summers so the official thermometer was moved from chest high to up a pole and dropped a few degrees. 🤣 it still goes into the 100 teens lots.
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I would expect Phoenix to be at least two degrees hotter than 100 years ago. One hundred years ago Phoenix, which is a very large city when measured by square miles, had almost no blacktop. Today, Phoenix has thousands of acres of blacktop. Blacktop absorbs heat and does not easily release the heat. Sand does not retain heat. Remove all the blacktop and structures that retain the heat, I speculate Phoenix is not hotter than 100 years ago.
 
GON said:
I would expect Phoenix to be at least two degrees hotter than 100 years ago. One hundred years ago Phoenix, which is a very large city when measured by square miles, had almost no blacktop. Today, Phoenix has thousands of acres of blacktop. Blacktop absorbs heat and does not easily release the heat. Sand does not retain heat. Remove all the blacktop and structures that retain the heat, I speculate Phoenix is not hotter than 100 years ago.
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Great idea ! I’m bringing the Jeep 😎
 
GON said:
I would expect Phoenix to be at least two degrees hotter than 100 years ago. One hundred years ago Phoenix, which is a very large city when measured by square miles, had almost no blacktop. Today, Phoenix has thousands of acres of blacktop. Blacktop absorbs heat and does not easily release the heat. Sand does not retain heat. Remove all the blacktop and structures that retain the heat, I speculate Phoenix is not hotter than 100 years ago.
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I've been told that mosquitoes are worse, too, due to irrigation. One senior lady told me that as a kid, they used to sleep out on the porch due to the heat and only had to worry about the scorpions.
 
Frankrank said:
They may be underestimating the intelligence of the public or if they repeat a falsehood enough it becomes the truth.:confused:
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It was covered in The Screwtape Letters:
"Teach him to call it 'real life' and don't let him ask what he means by 'real'."
 
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Pew said:
Temps compared to average UK temps. Statista shows the average UK temps in June to be 16c-ish.
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So…

Not a big deal… 18 degrees F is not worthy of all that.

I’m not saying people won’t notice it… They certainly will.

But it’s not that big of a deal…

Summer time standard deviations are much tighter vs winter time.

12 degrees above normal here in Va equals 100 degrees F… and is near record high temperatures.

12 degrees above average in the winter time and it’s no where near close to a record high.
 
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vavavroom said:
Then your agenda would have been obvious to a blind man on a rocket sled.
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No computer model can accurately predict exact weather conditions 5-10 days ahead of time.

Or accurately predict where a hurricane will make landfall exactly 5 to 8 days ahead of time….


I have looked at thousands and thousands of GFS and NAM computer model runs…

They are helpful. Ok. Yes that is true. But they are far, far far from super accurate weather forecasts 6-10 or 8-15 days ahead of time.


They can’t predict super accurate temperature readings from a week out and yet I’m told to somehow believe these models can predict global mean temperature within a 0.2 range of accuracy 30 years ahead in time ?

Think about that… Something isn’t making sense there.
 
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vavavroom said:
Outliers, spikes vs averages, and trends.
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Those outliers happen… Spike or severe drops happen.

Trends…. Happen too. Though slow warming led up to the ice sheet slowly disappearing that once covered a whole lot more of the American continent is a witness to that.

If you believe this planet is 4 billion years old… And we have only been accurately measuring air temperature for 140 years…

How do we say what is a trend based upon that exceptionally tiny amount of real time accurately observed data ?
 
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