The nature of organic chemistry, and correct me if I am wrong by some of the science brethren here, just naturally forms into amino acids. The building blocks of life.
Traces of amino acids have supposedly been found in meteorites and asteroids IIRC that one mission we landed a robot onto a moving asteroid.
So now you have amino acids presumably all over the universe.
Here's some AI numbers on the chances of intelligent life existing at some point when assuming only .01% of stars have inhabitable planets and then .01% of those planets produced life forms:
The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old.
The timeline from the first life forms to modern humans spans roughly 3.5 to 4 billion years.
- 3.8 billion years ago: The first simple, single-celled organisms appeared in Earth's oceans.
- 2 billion years ago: More complex cells (eukaryotes) evolved.
- 600 million years ago: Multicellular life began to flourish.
- 300,000 years ago: Anatomically modern Homo sapiens emerged.
Essentially, it took about
29% of the universe's total lifespan for life on Earth to progress from basic chemistry to human consciousness.
Estimating Galactic Civilizations
To calculate this, we use a simplified version of the Drake Equation.
- Total Stars: There are an estimated $200 \text{ billion}$ (2 \times 10^{11}) stars in our Milky Way galaxy alone. (If you mean the observable universe, there are roughly $10^{22} to $10^{24} stars). Let's stick to our galaxy for a "local" estimate.
- Stars with Life (0.01%):
$$200,000,000,000 \times 0.0001 = 20,000,000 \text{ stars with life}$$
- Human-Level Civilizations (0.01% of those):
20,000,000 \times 0.0001 = 2,000 \text{ civilizations}$$
In this scenario, there could be
2,000 civilizations that have reached human-level intelligence at some point in the history of our galaxy.
Universe wide estimate
Current astronomical estimates suggest there are roughly
2 trillion galaxies (2×1012) in the observable universe. If we assume an average of 100 billion stars per galaxy:
- Total Stars: ≈2×1023 (That is a 2 followed by 23 zeros, or 200 sextillion stars).
- Step 1: Stars with Life (0.01%)
200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000×0.0001=2×1019 planets with life
(That's 20 quintillion worlds with some form of life).
- Step 2: Human-Level Civilizations (0.01% of those)
20,000,000,000,000,000,000×0.0001=2×1015 civilizations
In this scenario, there could have been
2 quadrillion human-level civilizations throughout the history of the observable universe.
3. The "Time" Factor
It is important to remember that these 2 quadrillion civilizations wouldn't all exist at once. Because the universe is 13.8 billion years old, these civilizations are likely spread out across time.
Many may have flourished and gone extinct before Earth even formed. Because light takes millions or billions of years to travel between galaxies, we are seeing most of these "potential" homes as they were in the distant past, not as they are today.
4. Why haven't we seen them? (The Fermi Paradox)
If there are 2 quadrillion civilizations, why is the sky silent? Scientists suggest a few possibilities:
- The Great Filter: There may be a developmental wall that is almost impossible to clear (like the jump from single cells to complex life, or the jump from nuclear power to sustainable space travel).
- Distance: The universe is expanding so fast that most of these galaxies are moving away from us faster than the speed of light, meaning we could never reach them—even with a warp drive.
- Brief Lifespans: Civilizations might only last a few thousand years before destroying themselves or being hit by cosmic events (supernovas, asteroids), making the "overlap" in time very rare.
Even with your conservative 0.01% filters, the sheer scale of the universe suggests that "we are alone" is statistically the least likely option.
Energy Required for a Warp Drive
In Star Trek, warp drive works by contracting space in front of a ship and expanding it behind using an "Alcubierre Bubble."
According to General Relativity, space is very "stiff." To warp it significantly, the energy requirements are astronomical:
- The Mass-Energy Problem: Initial calculations suggested that to move a small spacecraft, you would need the energy equivalent of the entire mass of the planet Jupiter ($E = mc^2$).
- Negative Energy: The Alcubierre model requires "exotic matter" with negative energy density to keep the bubble stable. We currently have no proof that exotic matter exists in the quantities needed, or if it can be created at all.
- Modern Refinements: Recent theoretical papers have suggested "lower" energy requirements if the shape of the warp bubble is adjusted, potentially bringing the cost down to the mass-energy of a few hundred kilograms (roughly the size of a Voyager probe). However, this remains purely mathematical.
Comparative Perspective
| Milestone | Time Since Big Bang |
| Big Bang | 0 years |
| First Stars Form | ~200 million years |
| Earth Forms | ~9.2 billion years |
| First Life | ~10 billion years |
| Modern Humans | ~13.7997 billion years |
TL; DR Who knows, but the odds of intelligent life existing are pretty favorable, but those life forms somehow achieving fast than light travel or some kind of new physics to zip around the universe, might be really slim.