The Tesla Strategy

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Teslas bosrd of directors and Kimball Musk dumped $200 million in stock right before the "We Robot" event. In February, Mar , May and June of this year had cfo's, board members and Kimball Musk selling off Hundreds of millions of dollars in Tesla stock. The same could be asked to them, Is there something that the public should know about

With a market cap of over 1.1 trillion dollars, do you know the significance of 200 million? It's about five orders of magnitude below noise level. Even if they sold off a billion dollars of stock that amount is meaningless without the context of what percentage it was of their total holdings.

I appreciate your tireless efforts scouring the internet for any information that is negative towards Musk or Tesla, but in this case I don't believe that information has any significance.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Teslas bosrd of directors and Kimball Musk dumped $200 million in stock right before the "We Robot" event. In February, Mar , May and June of this year had cfo's, board members and Kimball Musk selling off Hundreds of millions of dollars in Tesla stock. The same could be asked to them, Is there something that the public should know about

You need to ask every member of every board and management team, every member of congress and all the SEC regulators first because all of them are insider trading. A analyst called "unusual whales" actually tracks it - look them up. Not saying its right, but if were going to cast stones.

Even a couple fed governors were caught doing it a few years back. All they got was a hand slap, still on the board.

 

[SC Maintenance]

X is making money now? Interesting. A couple of years ago something like half of their advertising revenue pulled out causing X to drop from the $44 to $22 billion.

Most objective analysts think so - but its private remember so there not required to publish profitability data. Many advertisers have returned to X. Its been growing its active user base for some time.

Elon of course paid way, way too much for it. Half the "active users" on Twitter were bots. It was unusable before. I am on it all the time now. If you don't subscribe to them you don't get any political hack posts.

Of course the mainstream still likes to attack them, and will site un-named sources or reports from UK - which for some reason that has to report financials of the UK operations to the the UK government, as evidence they are still not. Like the current UK financial dumpster fire in general has anything to do with the rest of the world.

Anyway xAI has acquired X (formerly Twitter anyway), so however you want to value these AI companies is now the defining factor, not the social media platform. Grok is supposed to be a pretty good AI model, so those that know claim.

 

[alarmguy]

Musk is worth like $435B. I am not sure I would count him out just yet.
Tesla's market cap is bigger than the next 13 car companies combined; about 4.3x more valuable than 2nd place Toyota. Almost 20x GM.

That's the numbers. But Tesla will be belly up any day now! Mark my words...

Like any company sooner or later they have to increase profits and sales. Currently sales and marketshare of their flagship products - EVs are in a two year decline. Right now their investors and speculators are hanging in there. I suspect one day they will be rewarded? Time will tell.
The stock is too risky for institutional investors because it is all still to this day speculation that they will be successful in turning profits and market share. Its vast majority are retail investors. At some point they have to justify the high multiple as any sane person knows currently is way to high.

So what do you think will happen if the company doesnt perform and return the growth and profits its speculators are expecting and why it is selling at a 200 times multiple of its earnings?
I know you know that you do not think this company will sell at 200 times earnings for the rest of its life. So will it make the money or not? Right now they are not. You keep saying the company is more valuable than other companies? Its doesnt matter, that value is "unrealized" because they have not yet produced the profits or the market for a product to justify the P/E ratio.

Meaning there is no floor to the stock except towards the $75 a share range. Obviously we expect that at some point they will grow market share and profits. Right now it is a pure speculation play and that is ok but if it doesnt produce there is no bottom to the price except around $75 or so.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Like any company sooner or later they have to increase profits and sales. Currently sales and marketshare of their flagship products - EVs are in a two year decline. Right now their investors and speculators are hanging in there. I suspect one day they will be rewarded? Time will tell.
The stock is too risky for institutional investors because it is all still to this day speculation that they will be successful in turning profits and market share. Its vast majority are retail investors. At some point they have to justify the high multiple as any sane person knows currently is way to high.

So what do you think will happen if the company doesnt perform and return the growth and profits its speculators are expecting and why it is selling at a 200 times multiple of its earnings?
I know you know that you do not think this company will sell at 200 times earnings for the rest of its life. So will it make the money or not? Right now they are not. You keep saying the company is more valuable than other companies? Its doesnt matter, that value is "unrealized" because they have not yet produced the profits or the market for a product to justify the P/E ratio.

Meaning there is no floor to the stock except towards the $75 a share range. Obviously we expect that at some point they will grow market share and profits. Right now it is a pure speculation play and that is ok but if it doesnt produce there is no bottom to the price except around $75 or so.

TSLA is certainly a roller coaster. I am an investor and could sell for about a 150% gain; not too bad. But I am long on Tesla.
All I can report is what the numbers are. The market is a forward looking entity; apparantly TSLA is pretty favorable, at least as compared to other car companies. Perhaps that's because Tesla is, 1 a leader and 2 more than a car company?

Tine will tell. My chrystal ball is as cloudy as everyone else's.

 

[alarmguy]

TSLA is certainly a roller coaster. I am an investor and could sell for about a 150% gain; not too bad. But I am long on Tesla.
All I can report is what the numbers are. The market is a forward looking entity; apparantly TSLA is pretty favorable, at least as compared to other car companies. Perhaps that's because Tesla is, 1 a leader and 2 more than a car company?

Tine will tell. My chrystal ball is as cloudy as everyone else's.

We agree, time will tell in the meantime lessor individuals have been burnt or greatly rewarded. Some of the public doesnt understand the difference between speculation and current performance.
Example.
IF we consider Tesla a technology company (im only saying this as you refer to it as such) Just discussing. I do get speculating. I do it myself in small amounts. Such as Bitcoin and XRP.
Depending on where an individual investor bought Tesla over the last three years vs a technology company like META
Currently Tesla is around a P/E of 195 and META is 27

Tesla=

META =

All good @JeffKeryk just discussing and at the same time pointing out to some who dont quite understand the market that TESLA is a pure spec play and to be careful. At some point they need to justify this high price like as you say currently is valued by its share holders making Tesla worth more than all major car makers combined yet do not have the earnings or growth to justify it at the current time. I wish I had a crystal ball like us all.
I think we know each other well enough by now that we are just having a conversation!!!

If Tesla one day manages to pull off on a nationwide scale, cars that people can buy and those people go to bed at night while their car autonomously goes to work and pays for itself would without a doubt make recent Tesla shareholders millionaires many times over. .... possibly. So dont listen to anything I say because I have no clue except the current numbers. So there, I said it, Im clueless!

 

[97prizm]

Tesla is going to have to really improve their vendor relations as a company that can rake in tens of billions yet has $25-30 million in vendor debt rubs people the wrong way. Several parts vendors filed bankruptcy because they're still waiting on Tesla to pay them. This and losing alot of long-time highly skilled employees to other companies, which could slow future projects. Giving Musk a trillion dollar pay package is irresponsible as a number of articles have shown that Tesla would have to sell something like 35 million model y/3's 100 million not autonomy robots, and a whole host of other things.

 

[Dave Hess]

With Tesla vehicle sales in a decline Elon will keep talking about robots and artificial intelligence.

 

[JeffKeryk]

With Tesla vehicle sales in a decline Elon will keep talking about robots and artificial intelligence.

AI is a good place to be... Ask Mr. Ellison. Wish I had more!