The gambler who beat roulette

[GON]

It is with great apprehension I post this article. I don't anything more destructive to a person than gambling . Gambling ruins life's and families, as heroin does.

A few times in the past, gambling was discussed on BITOG. It is important one post things they may not agree with. I came from a assumption after a college study that beating a casino is a mathematical impossibility. On a macro level I still believe this. This article demonstrates I am wrong on a micro level.

One line from the article I think is critical on a macro level "
It is practically impossible to predict the number that will come up,” Stephen Hawking once wrote about roulette. “Otherwise physicists would make a fortune at casinos".

This article suggests a flaw in Hawking's comment.

A long read, the article is well written with some colorful text like this:

"village in the region of Croatia where Tosa is from. Kit Chellel
The town’s only cafe was open and full of chain-smoking locals in sweatsuits. It was an unpretentious place decorated with Godfather posters. I ordered a coffee and struck up a conversation with the barman. Did he know that probably the world’s most successful roulette player had a place around the corner? No, he said—he never gambled. He thought it was a good way to lose money."

The Gambler Who Beat Roulette

For decades, casinos scoffed as mathematicians and physicists devised elaborate systems to take down the house. Then an unassuming Croatian’s winning strategy forever changed the game.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Kruse]

Kinda reminds me of Michael Larson on "Press Your Luck". They didn't want to pay, either.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

About 5 yrs ago I watched a story about a guy out of NJ who beat a Vegas megaproperty out of a million or more playing BlackJack because he was able to get them to modify the rules of the game and he was a guy who played big (aka A Whale).

Another is poker player Phil Ivey. A couple of years ago he and a female companion won around $20M in Baccarat at a UK casino because they became aware of a manufacturing defect in a particular brand of playing cards. Similar to the blackjack story above the casino wasn't aware and out of greed they agreed to use that deck of cards and let the dealer handle the cards a certain way. Once the casino figured out what was going on they sued and won in UK court. Google Phil Ivey Edge Sorting

 

[RhondaHonda]

Interesting article. Like the author, I’m not totally sure he didn’t have a computer or something. I don’t really consider that even cheating, he’s just finding a way to beat the casino and if they catch him, it’s their choice to ban him as a private business. I stink at roulette.

 

[Astro14]

It is possible, by counting cards, to improve your odds in Blackjack.

Done sufficiently well, you can eke out a slight edge.

Casinos, of course, have changed the rules to minimize the advantages of card counting and will throw you out if they suspect it, but it can be done. These days, I suspect they’re able to pay close enough attention to catch card counters.

“Beat The Dealer” by Edward O. Thorp is still on my bookshelf somewhere. As a college kid in the 80s, I read it, practiced counting, and, in fact made money on more than one trip to Atlantic City. It’s not easy to do, and I was a small enough player that the casino didn’t pay attention to me.

As a bit of irony, in reading Stephen Hawkins’s remarks; my roommate, who later got his PhD in Astrophysics from Harvard, played craps, and lost quite a bit on one trip. He had staked my first blackjack run, and I paid him back while we were still in the casino. He promptly lost that as well.

We have a pact to this day: I will never pay him back while in a casino. Ever.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

So.. I basically worked at the college that brought us this: ("21," true story of guys from Boston with a scheme.)

"21" (2008) - Counting Cards Scene




I think in this day and age, the days of Rainman and "beating the 6 deck shoot" are over. Though not much is impossible....

 

[John105]

This reminds me of watching a YouTube of a competitive eater in a all you can eat Fish and Chips in Michigan. Owner was upset and cut him off after like 33 pieces. The guy was able to order 4 more while 4 were being delivered, even burning his mouth as he was eating so fast. The house seems to get irate when people beat them at their own rigged games.

"Every time that wheel goes round, you're bound to cover just a little more ground."

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

It is possible, by counting cards, to improve your odds in Blackjack.

Done sufficiently well, you can eke out a slight edge.

Casinos, of course, have changed the rules to minimize the advantages of card counting and will throw you out if they suspect it, but it can be done. These days, I suspect they’re able to pay close enough attention to catch card counters.

“Beat The Dealer” by Edward O. Thorp is still on my bookshelf somewhere. As a college kid in the 80s, I read it, practiced counting, and, in fact made money on more than one trip to Atlantic City. It’s not easy to do, and I was a small enough player that the casino didn’t pay attention to me.

As a bit of irony, in reading Stephen Hawkins’s remarks; my roommate, who later got his PhD in Astrophysics from Harvard, played craps, and lost quite a bit on one trip. He had staked my first blackjack run, and I paid him back while we were still in the casino. He promptly lost that as well.

We have a pact to this day: I will never pay him back while in a casino. Ever.

So.. I basically worked at the college that brought us this: ("21," true story of guys from Boston with a scheme.)

"21" (2008) - Counting Cards Scene



I think in this day and age, the days of Rainman and "beating the 6 deck shoot" are over. Though not much is impossible....

The MIT blackjack teams were the real deal. It's almost impossible today since the majority of casinos have moved to continuous shufflers and changed payouts from 2:1 to 6:5, etc.

 

[Kira]

'Tis a good read.
One revelation was that the industry didn't seem to assure a level wheel by pouring a concrete pad or some such.

Hey, if roulette was 'straight' Nick couldn't have rescued that young girl from Renault's raunchy grasp in Casablanca.

 

[mk378]

It's interesting the casino thought something was up, so they moved the roulette wheels around. The guy found his favorite old wheel in a different room and continued to beat it.

That casino is bankrupt and closed now, though they claim a different reason.

 

[97prizm]

So.. I basically worked at the college that brought us this: ("21," true story of guys from Boston with a scheme.)

"21" (2008) - Counting Cards Scene




I think in this day and age, the days of Rainman and "beating the 6 deck shoot" are over. Though not much is impossible....

From what I've seen don't casinos now use multiple decks for games to make it nigh impossible to win?

 

[y_p_w]

The MIT blackjack teams were the real deal. It's almost impossible today since the majority of casinos have moved to continuous shufflers and changed payouts from 2:1 to 6:5, etc.

I don’t play blackjack much any more but I did a few months ago with the family out of town and nothing else to do. And yeah I lost but I was up early (enough to pay for dinner) and didn’t quit.

But it was a 6 deck shoe, 3:2 blackjack payouts, and double on any two cards. Standard rules are also a max of four splits.

 

[ATex7239]

From what I've seen don't casinos now use multiple decks for games to make it nigh impossible to win?

It doesn’t matter how many decks are in a shoe. The counting is the same if you use a simple plus/minus system. You do a plus one in your head on high cards and minus one on low cards. If your count is high in the positive then there is more low cards in the shoe, if your count is in the negative then you have more high cards in the shoe. Bet yours odds accordingly. You don’t have be able to do crazy math in your head like in the movies to technically count cards. And the shoe could have ten decks and it wouldn’t change the system’s effectiveness.

 

[y_p_w]

About 5 yrs ago I watched a story about a guy out of NJ who beat a Vegas megaproperty out of a million or more playing BlackJack because he was able to get them to modify the rules of the game and he was a guy who played big (aka A Whale).

Another is poker player Phil Ivey. A couple of years ago he and a female companion won around $20M in Baccarat at a UK casino because they became aware of a manufacturing defect in a particular brand of playing cards. Similar to the blackjack story above the casino wasn't aware and out of greed they agreed to use that deck of cards and let the dealer handle the cards a certain way. Once the casino figured out what was going on they sued and won in UK court. Total BS imo. Google Phil Ivey Edge Sorting

Phil Ivey and his friend did it at several casinos including a tribal casino in the US. The general idea is that his friend had good eyesight and could find cards that weren’t perfectly cut where she could detect the direction of the card by looking at the edge. His friend’s nickname is “The Queen of Sorts”. And it required a ton of cooperation of the dealer and the management. She spoke Cantonese and would usually request a Cantonese speaking dealer. The handling of the cards was that she asked the dealer to turn specific cards (the sorting) a certain way (“for luck”), and the dealer complied with the request for every single player card. By the time they were mostly sorted and then shuffled, there was maybe an 80% chance (depending on how deep they played) they knew if the first card was a “high” or “low” card and they could adjust for it. That basically turned a less than 1% house edge to a 10-15% player edge.

And I heard a few times they requested the same shoe of cards be saved overnight so they could come back the next day and play on the same shoe. They used a standard shuffling machine which doesn’t flip the direction of the cards. All it would have taken to defeat it would be to do a single flip of half the shoe. And I’ve seen dealer do that before a shuffle. These casinos basically allowed them to request a lot of nonstandard stuff, like not flipping the cards.

I found this article that claims she asked for the cards to be dealt “Macau style” which means the first four cards dealt face down before the players make their bets on the player or bank. That along with knowing the next card direction in the shoe would give a huge advantage. Not perfect but good enough that they had a clear advantage.

Casino 'cheat' who partnered HK heiress loses court fight for cash - Asia Times

Professional poker player Phil Ivey has lost his UK Supreme Court challenge to recover £7.7m (US$10.2m) in winnings from London’s Crockfords Club after

asiatimes.com

She had an individual case with Foxwoods, but Ivey settled a case with the Borgata in Atlantic City.

Foxwoods Survives Edge Sorting Lawsuit from Phil Ivey's "Queen of Sorts" Accomplice

Cheung Yin Sun, the so-called “Queen of Sorts,” also know as Phil Ivey's edge sorting accomplice, lost her law suit against Foxwoods Casino.

www.pokernews.com

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil-ivey-settles-10-1-million-lawsuit-with-borgata

 

[y_p_w]

It doesn’t matter how many decks are in a shoe. The counting is the same if you use a simple plus/minus system. You do a plus one in your head on high cards and minus one on low cards. If your count is high in the positive then there is more low cards in the shoe, if your count is in the negative then you have more high cards in the shoe. Bet yours odds accordingly. You don’t have be able to do crazy math in your head like in the movies to technically count cards. And the shoe could have ten decks and it wouldn’t change the system’s effectiveness.

It really only makes sense with a 3:2 blackjack payout though. If there’s a higher proportion of high cards (including aces) that means a better chance of getting a blackjack.

 

[ATex7239]

It really only makes sense with a 3:2 blackjack payout though. If there’s a higher proportion of high cards (including aces) that means a better chance of getting a blackjack.

For sure. It is better the lower the deck count but you can still use the method to help you predict if the next card will be low or high. The odds change a bit but it is still effective

 

[GON]

Phil Ivey and his friend did it at several casinos including a tribal casino in the US. The general idea is that his friend had good eyesight and could find cards that weren’t perfectly cut where she could detect the direction of the card by looking at the edge. His friend’s nickname is “The Queen of Sorts”. And it required a ton of cooperation of the dealer and the management. She spoke Cantonese and would usually request a Cantonese speaking dealer. The handling of the cards was that she asked the dealer to turn specific cards (the sorting) a certain way (“for luck”), and the dealer complied with the request for every single player card. By the time they were mostly sorted and then shuffled, there was maybe an 80% chance (depending on how deep they played) they knew if the first card was a “high” or “low” card and they could adjust for it. That basically turned a less than 1% house edge to a 10-15% player edge.

And I heard a few times they requested the same shoe of cards be saved overnight so they could come back the next day and play on the same shoe. They used a standard shuffling machine which doesn’t flip the direction of the cards. All it would have taken to defeat it would be to do a single flip of half the shoe. And I’ve seen dealer do that before a shuffle. These casinos basically allowed them to request a lot of nonstandard stuff, like not flipping the cards.

I found this article that claims she asked for the cards to be dealt “Macau style” which means the first four cards dealt face down before the players make their bets on the player or bank. That along with knowing the next card direction in the shoe would give a huge advantage. Not perfect but good enough that they had a clear advantage.

Casino 'cheat' who partnered HK heiress loses court fight for cash - Asia Times

Professional poker player Phil Ivey has lost his UK Supreme Court challenge to recover £7.7m (US$10.2m) in winnings from London’s Crockfords Club after

asiatimes.com

She had an individual case with Foxwoods, but Ivey settled a case with the Borgata in Atlantic City.

Foxwoods Survives Edge Sorting Lawsuit from Phil Ivey's "Queen of Sorts" Accomplice

Cheung Yin Sun, the so-called “Queen of Sorts,” also know as Phil Ivey's edge sorting accomplice, lost her law suit against Foxwoods Casino.

www.pokernews.com

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil-ivey-settles-10-1-million-lawsuit-with-borgata

YPW,

Thanks for posting those articles. Very interesting story. And the Foxwood situation gets even more interesting:

""Thus, Ms. Sun premised her lawsuit on a few creative theories. The two most pertinent were that Foxwoods’ use of a Connecticut police officer gave rise to a civil rights violation, and that the Mashantucket Pequot is not a genuine tribe in the first place but, rather, is the byproduct of a massive fraud, as alleged in a book by Jack Benedict entitled Without Reservation: The Making of America’s Most Powerful Indian Tribe and Foxwoods the World’s Largest Casino.

Service of Process​

Unfortunately for Ms. Sun, her suit hit an ironic, if logically circuitous, snag almost immediately. When you sue someone in federal court, the onus is on you to legally notify them of the lawsuit, and a simple phone call or e-mail will not nearly suffice; a complex array of federal rules, some of which incorporate state and foreign laws, govern the way in which notice is to be given. Familiarly, individual citizens are often put on notice by having a process server locate them and hand them official notice of the suit, alongside myriad other documents.

However, the Mashantucket Pequot tribe is not an individual citizen, and trying to serve a Native American entity – or its citizenry – can potentially involve adhering to tribal law, which creates something of a Catch 22 since Ms. Sun’s suit is premised upon the inapplicability of tribal law. Thus it appears Ms. Sun’s legal team struggled to secure proper notice, creating a multitude of issues.

Even odder, however, there is no question but that the Mashantucket Pequot tribe and its fellow defendants knew of the lawsuit, since every one of them had a lawyer appear on their behalf in court. Indeed, it can be best described as something of a Kafkaesque scenario, the various defendants filed a motion to dismiss the litigation on the theory that they had not been properly served under laws meant to ensure they are aware of the litigation, and, of course, they also argued that they are entitled to sovereign immunity.

As Mr. Vining, Ms. Sun’s counsel, shared with PokerNews exclusively, “the court ruled we didn't have proper service of process over the tribal defendants because we didn't follow tribal law. But it is our position that when the individual tribal defendants violated our clients' civil rights they lost their sovereign immunity, hence tribal law should be irrelevant.”

""

 

[y_p_w]

For sure. It is better the lower the deck count but you can still use the method to help you predict if the next card will be low or high. The odds change a bit but it is still effective

I was only thinking of traditional high low card counting. Edge sorting is a completely different level of advantage play.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Phil Ivey and his friend did it at several casinos including a tribal casino in the US. The general idea is that his friend had good eyesight and could find cards that weren’t perfectly cut where she could detect the direction of the card by looking at the edge. His friend’s nickname is “The Queen of Sorts”. And it required a ton of cooperation of the dealer and the management. She spoke Cantonese and would usually request a Cantonese speaking dealer. The handling of the cards was that she asked the dealer to turn specific cards (the sorting) a certain way (“for luck”), and the dealer complied with the request for every single player card. By the time they were mostly sorted and then shuffled, there was maybe an 80% chance (depending on how deep they played) they knew if the first card was a “high” or “low” card and they could adjust for it. That basically turned a less than 1% house edge to a 10-15% player edge.

And I heard a few times they requested the same shoe of cards be saved overnight so they could come back the next day and play on the same shoe. They used a standard shuffling machine which doesn’t flip the direction of the cards. All it would have taken to defeat it would be to do a single flip of half the shoe. And I’ve seen dealer do that before a shuffle. These casinos basically allowed them to request a lot of nonstandard stuff, like not flipping the cards.

I found this article that claims she asked for the cards to be dealt “Macau style” which means the first four cards dealt face down before the players make their bets on the player or bank. That along with knowing the next card direction in the shoe would give a huge advantage. Not perfect but good enough that they had a clear advantage.

Casino 'cheat' who partnered HK heiress loses court fight for cash - Asia Times

Professional poker player Phil Ivey has lost his UK Supreme Court challenge to recover £7.7m (US$10.2m) in winnings from London’s Crockfords Club after

asiatimes.com

She had an individual case with Foxwoods, but Ivey settled a case with the Borgata in Atlantic City.

Foxwoods Survives Edge Sorting Lawsuit from Phil Ivey's "Queen of Sorts" Accomplice

Cheung Yin Sun, the so-called “Queen of Sorts,” also know as Phil Ivey's edge sorting accomplice, lost her law suit against Foxwoods Casino.

www.pokernews.com

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil-ivey-settles-10-1-million-lawsuit-with-borgata

Good find. The impacted properties were also garnishing his poker tournament winnings.

 

[y_p_w]

For sure. It is better the lower the deck count but you can still use the method to help you predict if the next card will be low or high. The odds change a bit but it is still effective

From what I understand about card counting (which I've never personally done), there really no predicting what the next card is. The only thing is for trends where the player can expect that the player is more likely to win. I previously mentioned blackjacks, but I remember it was also a higher chance of getting a pat hand (17-20) on the first two cards. But blackjack paying out 3:2 is still important since the margins are pretty thin.

What one needs to do is perform a "spread" where the player starts with a standard bet but then when there's an player advantage to the deck the player ups the bet. I heard it can work with bets just double the previous bets, but ideally it would be a large spread like 5x or more. Obviously that tips off the house. I've also heard of team techniques where maybe they had one member of the team playing minimum bets, but then when it went in the players' favor they would signal (as surreptitiously as possible) for others to come in and then place big bets.

But casinos have caught on to all this. They've done things like go to a shallower depth in a shoe, which provides less time for players to use a favorable shoe. They might actually use security cameras to do their own card counting, where they might order a "preferential shuffle" when the shoe is beneficial to the players.