The EV battery discussion thread (bogus breakthroughs)

[ZeeOSix]

It kind of reminds me of the Twilight Zone episode entitled "Hocus-Pocus and Frisby".

 

[blingo]

Not really politics. Forgot if it was "Kameleon" or else here who knew words, used words, had the biggest words... This is the lowly opposite, an overexpansive Bannonesque "I have all the neutrons, you have none and therefore cannot speak. Will make mobility acceptable again for you." in a battle for Georgia, revolutionary USA or whatever comprising preferably each and every topic. Spin doctoring personality show of the "science based" variety. Commata and neutrinos...

This thread as such of course hadn't been interested in plausible vs. bogus breakthroughs for long. On the other hand it does no longer matter what any thread is about when your one man chapel of roll back needs to guarantee the same educational declamation all over the board.
Charging standards need to be debunked, investments become treason against the people and mixing oils from two bottles easily has the potential of helping redistribution of belief, oils are made from neutrons too. N'importe...
The Btu-ideas could get separated – then there'd immediately be two threads für den Dackel and none effectively about "bogus breakthroughs", to say nothing of battery advancements.

Technically there's not too much sense in MPGe as mentioned. An artefact over not being used to referencing kWh or liters per miles or so. The pseudo problem would be easy to split up into well_to_wheel and cradle_to_cradle/grave etc. portions to found one's prejudice on – and kWh-relations from there. 42kWh get in a battery and propel for a 200km ride or become overhead to produce and mount 6 liters of diesel in a tank. CO2 accordingly.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

you’ve provided only contrary opinions without anything resembling a solution. We Nukes hate having to deal with know-it-all engineers like you. We just need some guidance on what we CAN do, not a million-pages of what we CAN’T do and why.

No, that's not correct but what is does show is that there are many people who really do not understand how this process works so let me explain the process and see if that works.

First- I understand in 2020 everybody thinks everything can be broken down into simple one liners and all you need to do to be a surgeon is have a WebMD account and watch Youtube videos. That's not the case and people apparentally don't understand that they don't understand.

These are 2 different things ( ICE and electric) so there is no single linear measurement that hits them both equally so a legitimate one liner is not possible. That's just a simple fact. Theres no direct correlation between an ampere and an explosion of gas in one cylinder. ( assuming all others things are equal)

At that point, a bridge has to be built. Easy to do ( just takes thought) but requires some time. ( its done all the time on asset management metrics)

But, all comparisons have to be built against a hard fixed standard (s). You cant solve ?+?=??

That has to be made first so there is a baseline(s) for comparison to be measured against.

I offered this earlier but nobody took so I present it to you since you brought it up.

Give me a baseline you would like ( a yardstick to equally measure both against) and I'll build a simple one right here to show the point and process. ( at least to a high level depending on complexity)

Remember, you cant jumble metrics because they don't have the same calculations so if you want to measure them against say "cost of energy per range"- there will have to be strict definitions and controls put into the conditions to make sure all things are equal.

I'm ready- are you?

 

[blingo]

Not through ceilings but everywhere else. Only in this thread none were ever interested in breakthroughs.

Toyota – the hybridized giant like no other – is about to start its impure play the Tesla way:
Featuring Direct4 – because fundamental testing of their solid state tech seems to be done but up to four years are communicated as a span until finally with them.

No wonder when you're a hybridized giant like no other. The market in general is more diverse in every regard, many customers won't need a Direct4 ouverture or wait for Toyotas DirectPV as it could be named, some are crowd funding their minimalistic Sono Motors Sion for 35 to nearly 0 kilometers per day from the car's PV alone. Which by now cannot be any more improbable than Renault's Dacia Logan was to happen a decade ago.

Sounds infinitely less understandable than grandfather X cold starting up the Lincoln three times a week, jump starting may be?
Even a finally more relevant Tesla would sound understandable – and be it uncalifornian now

Toyota's game-changing solid-state battery en route for 2021 debut

Japan's government to join forces with industry to supercharge development

asia.nikkei.com

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

Why not start that in your own right when no moderator does it for you?

I just did. I made the offer. Let me tell you why from an Engineer's perspective.

Its not my job or responsibility to tell any client what they want or how to run their business- its my job to take what they want and do whatever with it.

So, in that manner, I have asked (the client per se) to establish the grounds ( call it categories, areas, tenets, or whatever) for this comparison.

That will lead to all limits and boundaries for the design of experiments ( that's a critical part to make sure it doesn't go off into the weeds) then the execution of said math. That part is the responsibility of the client- not the engineer. I'll take it from there.

focus on topic here to be what it could

Quite literally, this topic is about "bogus" breakthroughs which is what I have been pointing out so it is on topic

 

[blingo]

Can't see it? Even as just an offer it can have its thread, I guess. No need to "explain". Reread and go for it or just go for it. Mansplaining in its own right.
But don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to moderate. Only following closely what's going on and feeling good. What about some whataboutism, what about Toyota 2021 so on topic?

What about, maybe, the US having lost touch? Is that also going on, telling and explaining?

 

[vwmaniaman]

Maybe the electric cars will cause oil and filters to get cheaper or disappear entirely.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

You still think it's just a calculation on paper? Said a couple times now that the model is verified with testing and correlation. What else are you going to do? You think the engineers doing this work are not doing it right for it's intended purpose (you ignore context), yet you can't even go look into it to show us exactly where they are off in their correlations and prove it. Instead, you just discount it all to some kind of EPA conspiracy to "fool" people, lol.

As always, let me point out all the errors and even give you a link

Miles per gallon gasoline equivalent - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

First, these metrics were made by BUREAUCRATS for POLITICS- not be engineers for technical use so any "testing and correlation" has to be reviewed to see what else is in there ( which you have not done)

They are "doing it right" FOR THE INTENDED PURPOSE (I grant you that but that purpose is NOT a legitimate equal comparison)

Now ( from the link) lets "look into it"
The unit of energy consumed is 33.7 Kilowatt hours without regard to the efficiency of conversion of heat energy into electrical energy, also measured in Kilowatt hours. The equivalence of this unit to energy in a gallon of gasoline is true if and only if the heat engine, generating equipment, and power delivery to the car battery are 100% efficient. Actual heat engines differ vastly from this assumption.

There's the first clue- the basis of comparison itself is fatally flawed. There's more

Fuel economy for CAFE purposes include an incentive adjustment for alternative fuel vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles which results in higher MPGe than those estimated for window stickers

Gee, an incentive adjustment- how "scientific"

The formula also includes a "fuel content factor" of 1/0.15 (about 6.667) to benefit electric vehicles, raising the value from 12,307 to 82,049 Wh/gal. This reward factor is intended provide an incentive for vehicle manufactures to produce and sell electric vehicles, as a higher equivalent fuel economy for EVs improves the carmaker overall fleet fuel economy levels in complying with the CAFE standards, and Congress anticipated that such an incentive would help accelerate the commercialization of electric vehicles.

Gee, a political injection to influence an outcome- That's real good hard "science"

Now let me roll up the long part about how the comparison is built ( long read)

The end computation results in MPG unit and is directly comparable to a standard internal combustion engine vehicles fuel costs for its rated MPG.

The entire "correlation" is built around "fuzzy logic" and tests with numerous uncontrolled variables leading to a COST comparison of the fuel.

When you drill down into the bas metrics, consider the points listed above.

They take a lab formula and break it down to joules ( the atomic level) then skew the data and calculation like this "dual" correlation
For EPA, this considers the tank-to-wheel for liquids and wall-to-wheel energy consumption for electricity

2 different scales and models ( each with a ton of uncontrolled variables)

And its all done in BTU ( where its stated up front its an impossible correlation)

I could go on for another hundred points but I have made my point and done it using the actual metrics.

 

[UncleDave]

Once you depart from measuring by wall or tank to wheel - anybody can throw in any number they want.

Totally open to seeing a formula from anyone that attempts to accurately determine losses on both sides, but no ones done it.

Monroney stickers have always been a mere guide.

 

[BeerCan]

Solid State battery announcement

VW-backed QuantumScape says its solid-state batteries will enable EVs to travel farther and charge faster

The batteries will appear first in Volkswagen vehicles in 2024.

www.theverge.com

Hype is still high around this tech but this looks like it could be a decent breakthrough. I guess it will really depend on how it scales and if they have the longevity issue cracked. Will be interesting to see if these start showing up in lower powered devices in the coming years. Says 2024 for use in VW vehicles, seems aggressive as that is not to long from now.

I think between this, flow and lithium sulfur we are bound to see a breakthrough within the next decade

 

[UncleDave]

"If"

“Tesla, probably even more than any other company, is completely opportunistic,” Singh said. “If this battery works, they’re gonna want to use it.”

 

[BeerCan]

Agreed on "if"
However eventually an if will become a working product, just like any other industry. I'm sure Otto at one point said "I wonder IF I try gasoline?" or

BTW I know that Otto never used gasoline, it's just a point :0

 

[UncleDave]

Agreed on "if"
However eventually an if will become a working product, just like any other industry. I'm sure Otto at one point said "I wonder IF I try gasoline?" or Diesel said "what IF I try oil instead of coal dust?"

BTW I know that Otto never used gasoline, it's just a point :0

Totally agreed, just thought it was funny that they themselves worded the sentence as though they aren't certain of the outcome.

Not exactly confidence inspiring.

 

[BeerCan]

Totally agreed, just thought it was funny that they themselves worded the sentence as though they aren't certain of the outcome.

Not exactly confidence inspiring.

Yeah, investor relations is probably not to happy about that one

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

Totally open to seeing a formula from anyone that attempts to accurately determine losses on both sides, but no ones done it.

You are right but let me tell you why ( Its not because it cant be done- its because its not WANTED to be done and its not wanted because of the answers it will give). There's a reason I quit bidding on "green projects".

Depending on what type of comparison the person commissioning the equation wants- there are numerous ways to build one ( which is why I asked earlier for the guidelines- its not up to me to do that part)

The reason its not "wanted" is because true energy equations are both linear and scalable ( just like electrical calculations- basically the same accuracy as DNA or higher). What that means is that there is no way to hide data, abuse or misrepresent the data and everyone can see it for what it is.

It gives a truthful, verifiable, equal and repeatable comparison on every point.

That's why its unwanted

 

[UncleDave]

The powder vs liquid is already being done by Tesla, that was part of the Maxwell acquisition.

80% at 800 cycles isnt that great, unless thats 100% depletion and quick charges - but they dont really say.

 

[UncleDave]

1.21GW!

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

1.21GW!

giga or jiga?

 

[UncleDave]

giga or jiga?

To me its giga - but I pronounced GIF incorrectly for decades...

I worked for a French Canadian company that used the British spelling and had to deal with and recogNISE (vs. ize) words like "Colour" and "Flavour".

Then I married a French Canadian whose version of French is actually some slang Cajun.. like contracting Je-sui into "Jes" -- what?

Im no one to ever get a pronunciation right.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

Once you depart from measuring by wall or tank to wheel - anybody can throw in any number they want.

Its much deeper than that and what gets steered away from most is work ( as defined by physics)- If the goal is to test ICE versus EV in any category against any standard then the LCD is work.

Here's why- in this universe "work" is defined as force required to overcome resistance and everything adds on from there.

Comparing an ICE to an electric motor is a no brainer and well known. an ICE is about .6 ish PTO HP of the electrical counterpart.

HP (or Nm) is the accepted unit for both motors and engines so use it. This is critical because the prime mover ( power plant is either mechanical/chemical or electrical) but the carrier ( the rest of the car) is a mechanical device no different than the gearbox I calculate loads and service factors for on a rock conveyor.

So, if the baseline is the PTO of the prime mover, the first factor to be considered is the "work" required to "go through" the car to the tire just to initiate motion. ( they would have to be equal or equalized because this directly affects energy requirement and could lead to a false comparison).

Example- all things equal it takes more energy to go through a geared transmission than a PTO directly on a wheel. That makes it critical for a direct comparison ( like V. like) that the PTO to wheel loads be the same.

Then comes resistance- in work, the force out has to overcome resistance. This is everything from gravity, wind, incline, traction, gross weight and everything else. This directly determines the amount of work required which directly affects the energy ( droplet or amp) required.

The amount of "work" then directly determines the amount of energy ( tank or battery) .

From there that work can be scaled or parted or paired in distance, payload, velocity or any combination with almost absolute mathematical accuracy. (Its done all over the world every day in various power transmission scenarios)

This is what many people don't want the public to know because when its broken down into this method- there's no hiding anything.

This also establishes the scale up from 1 EV power requirement to say 1 million which will then tell exactly what the grid will have to be increased to ( another set of numbers many people would rather be kept silent)

In case anyone is curious, "they" already know this which is why they" don't want you to and come up with all these "indirect" measurements.