The comment on BITOG that provided me great hope this week “turning rotors”.

[PandaBear]

The comment on BITOG that provided me great hope this week “turning rotors”.



Apologies I can’t find the reply in one of the numerous threads reference tariff discussions. I did a search but unable to find the reply, and to acknowledge the BITOG member who posted the following (memoir not verbatim):

“guess we will have to go back to turning/ cutting rotors instead of buying new Chinese aftermarket rotors”

That BITOGers’ comment deeply motivated me all weekend (it is Sunday in Asia). I look at that and think wow, tariffs have the potential of reestablishing basic machine shops in auto part stores, training a new generation of Americans to operate lathes and associated equipment, restarts the manufacturing of brake lathe equipment, or resume using brake lathe equipment sitting idle.

Some of the auto part store workers will get trained to cut rotors, resulting in a growth of machinists' interest. These workers may further become machinists, lithograph operators, one could go on and on.

Having machinists’ equipment and machinist reintroduced to America has limitless benefits. I am sure there are thousands of other like opportunities in America once we start manufacturing up again.

I am hopeful in America this Sunday morning. It won’t be easy, might in fact be very painful in the short term- but well worth the pain in support of our great nation that has given so much to so very many.

I know Gon is not being sarcastic and serious. I'll try to refrain from cracking jokes or being hostile, and be as polite as possible.

What you proposed has been experimented in China and ended up being the social experiment in history with the greatest fatality, more than any war ever caused, in human history

Basically they want to force those "educated people" and farmers to go smelt steel and come up with all sorts of ways to be self sustainable without import and trade, all because they want to rule their own countries instead of having foreigners and capitalists do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

To go back to your example: your will end up with rotors smuggled into the country, you will have people ignore rotors, cutting them way too thin to save a buck, ignore them until they almost get into an accident, etc. No, you are not going to hire a minimum wage worker to cut rotors, you will end up pulling them out ship them to mexico to refurb then ship it back, and to combat that you will make cutting rotors more expensive than buying US made new one.

 

[PandaBear]

1. Trade deficits are not a simple accounting convention; they are real debt that must be paid back
2. Trade deficits must be financed, and we finance our trade deficit by borrowing from our trading partners.
3. The big irony is that we borrow money from our trading partners to finance our trade deficit so that we can buy more of their exports.
4. When the value for the dollar is increased, our exports become less competitive and imports cheaper.
5. Contrary to popular belief, the trade deficit debt must be paid back, and this will be increasingly hard to do with growing federal deficits.
6. If we get crosswise with China, they may decide to not loan us any more money and cash in their US securities

Your assumption is correct except those are all in USD and we finance that with our own printing press. The money we save from that mostly ended up in the US economy developing things: most of the excess capital with nowhere to go end up in stock market, US bond funding US economy indirectly (like military pay, K12 teachers, those shiny $70k SUVs, startup in silicon valley, etc etc).

Printing $1 to get $1 of goods and then pay $0.5 in inflation is a heck of a good deal.

If someone let me use my own printer to print checks they will never cash to buy stuff from them, I would do it too. Argentina couldn't so they collapsed, but we aren't Argentina.

 

[PandaBear]

Tariff war was fought and ended decades ago. It is crystal clear who won and lost that war.

The discussion now is how to recover/ rebuild from the monster financial losses of the war. Japan had a plan, and it worked, Republic of Korea had a plan, and it worked.

Failure to plan is a plan to fail.

Yes, that's how the Great Depression started.

 

[4WD]

I know Gon is not being sarcastic and serious. I'll try to refrain from cracking jokes or being hostile, and be as polite as possible.

What you proposed has been experimented in China and ended up being the social experiment in history with the greatest fatality, more than any war ever caused, in human history

Basically they want to force those "educated people" and farmers to go smelt steel and come up with all sorts of ways to be self sustainable without import and trade, all because they want to rule their own countries instead of having foreigners and capitalists do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

To go back to your example: your will end up with rotors smuggled into the country, you will have people ignore rotors, cutting them way too thin to save a buck, ignore them until they almost get into an accident, etc. No, you are not going to hire a minimum wage worker to cut rotors, you will end up pulling them out ship them to mexico to refurb then ship it back, and to combat that you will make cutting rotors more expensive than buying US made new one.

EV’s and Hybrid’s don’t use many - I did 157k on a hybrid’s brakes

 

[PandaBear]

The barista serving coffee to their hairdresser.
Okay, that’s what national security is about …

If I'm a plumber and my lawyer customer demand me to not take cash for the job but to hire him to divorce my wife, I would take out the toilet I just installed for him.

Maybe that's why he made this demand, he wants to force his son to install the toilet himself instead of paying cash to hire a plumber.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Ouch! So cutting all non-mandatory non-defence spending would only go halfway to balancing the budget - and even cutting all discretionary spending would barely balance the budget.

That is scary.

Something needs to change.

Edit: So government revenue is about $4.4T.

If it's not realistic to significantly reduce government spending, then revenue must increase by over a third. That is scary.

Revenue may change because tax cuts are expiring so we have no idea what version of reality they're intending to present to the public. However income tax brackets have not been indexed for inflation so bracket creep will increase the amount collected. Bracket creep is where a lot of people feel inflation.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

The administration thinks they can find a trillion dollars a year of waste and fraud without touching entitlements. That leaves a trillion to cover via growth and import duties.

Ya. Not to mention all the "success stories" which amount to a pittance in $$.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I know Gon is not being sarcastic and serious. I'll try to refrain from cracking jokes or being hostile, and be as polite as possible.

What you proposed has been experimented in China and ended up being the social experiment in history with the greatest fatality, more than any war ever caused, in human history

Basically they want to force those "educated people" and farmers to go smelt steel and come up with all sorts of ways to be self sustainable without import and trade, all because they want to rule their own countries instead of having foreigners and capitalists do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

To go back to your example: your will end up with rotors smuggled into the country, you will have people ignore rotors, cutting them way too thin to save a buck, ignore them until they almost get into an accident, etc. No, you are not going to hire a minimum wage worker to cut rotors, you will end up pulling them out ship them to mexico to refurb then ship it back, and to combat that you will make cutting rotors more expensive than buying US made new one.

I wonder if I should go pull a bunch of rotors off wrecked BMW's and re-sell them on eBay.

 

[KrisZ]

Ya. Not to mention all the "success stories" which amount to a pittance in $$.

$140B thus far, hardly a pittance.

 

[cptbarkey]

My van has a long job ahead supporting the family. In before the tarrifs that has no domestic subsidy plan. They came in quickly, thank you RA as always.

 

[alcyon]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/739425
This is a comment section In Malaysia about the tarrifs, you can read through and see the same sentiments I echoed. Our govt tariff the hell out of imports and a lot of us are unhappy about it. If D.T is only doing this as leverage to force other countries to lower tariffs for US goods (which seems to be the case), then I am all for it.

another one.
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/739338

 

[KrisZ]

They can say “we focus only on ourselves” but apparently we cannot.
BTW, the guy looks like he’s seen a ghost, but sure “they’re not worried about it”

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/739425
This is a comment section In Malaysia about the tarrifs, you can read through and see the same sentiments I echoed. Our govt tariff the hell out of imports and a lot of us are unhappy about it. If D.T is only doing this as leverage to force other countries to lower tariffs for US goods (which seems to be the case), then I am all for it.

Malaysia heavily invested in protecting their pork producers. That's the only big thing.

https://wits.worldbank.org/tariff/trains/en/country/MYS/partner/USA/product/all

 

[Sumboodie]

What was FDR trying to solve, and what was his answer? Was FDR trying to solve a massive debt/ deficit, while the average age of a male death in the U.S. has risen over 20 years?

Average age of U.S. male death 1920 53 years of age
Average age of U.S. male death 2024 74 years of age

Those numbers are skewed due to fairly high infect mortality. Remove that and it's not nearly are far apart.

 

[alcyon]

Malaysia heavily invested in protecting their pork producers. That's the only big thing.

https://wits.worldbank.org/tariff/trains/en/country/MYS/partner/USA/product/all

Malaysia is actually anti pork. The majority of people here do not touch the stuff, only the minorities. Heck the majority get riled up even by the word and photo of it ...

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/s...-in-flight-magazine-after-social-media-furore

https://www.ucanews.com/news/malaysian-muslims-fume-over-heritage-tag-for-pork-soup/104331

https://www.malaymail.com/news/mala...or-trying-to-confuse-muslims-says-min/1059761

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/2-malaysians-charged-over-pork-photo-that-riled-muslims/

https://www.ucanews.com/news/the-toxic-effects-of-food-and-fear-mongering-in-malaysia/103329

 

[Nick1994]

Pretending that tariffs, basically a tax on the American people, will help solve our deficit while also passing a $4.5 trillion tax cut that primarily benefits the top 5% of income-earners, is the most ultimate level of delusional thinking one could ever imagine.

 

[KrisZ]

Pretending that tariffs, basically a tax on the American people, will help solve our deficit while also passing a $4.5 trillion tax cut that primarily benefits the top 5% of income-earners, is the most ultimate level of delusional thinking one could ever imagine.

Or perhaps it is done to encourage manufacturing and engineering/design to start opening new factories and offices in US. Did that ever cross your mind?

The “rich” are always “evil”. Read up some history, Bolsheviks used to call anyone with some education a bourgeoisie, and sometimes just knowing how to read was enough to brand you as one and got sent to the gulags. It’s a very old, and quite clearly effective, rhetoric.

 

[Nick1994]

Or perhaps it is done to encourage manufacturing and engineering/design to start opening new factories and offices in US. Did that ever cross your mind?

The “rich” are always “evil”. Read up some history, Bolsheviks used to call anyone with some education a bourgeoisie, and sometimes just knowing how to read was enough to brand you as one and got sent to the gulags. It’s a very old, and quite clearly effective, rhetoric.

Ah, the good ol’ trickle down-economics. Gotcha.

 

[KrisZ]

Ah, the good ol’ trickle down-economics. Gotcha.

So tax the rich is the answer to prosperity then? You’re welcome to show me an economy where it was done and it thrived.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Or perhaps it is done to encourage manufacturing and engineering/design to start opening new factories and offices in US. Did that ever cross your mind?

The irony is that that would likely mean even more factory jobs going unfilled. The WSJ reported yesterday there was a record number of unfilled manufacturing jobs in the US.