Tesla 2021 Q2 - Sold out?

JeffKeryk

JeffKeryk

Joined
Jan 9, 2010
Messages
19,187
Location
Los Gatos, CA
There are reports that Q2 deliveries are sold out... 3x over 2020 Q2?
Can they make 'em fast enough? What about semiconductors? Who knows?
Are buyers whack?

Q2 Sales Demand
 
Last edited:
JeffKeryk said:
There are reports that Q2 deliveries are sold out... 3x over 2020 Q2?
Can they make 'em fast enough? What about semiconductors? Who knows?
Are buyers whack?

Q2 Sales Demand
Click to expand...

There's literally zero stock in the GTA right now, whereas, a couple months ago, there were tons, particularly the demo's. They are being snapped up for sure.
 
Every new car dealer in my area (all brands) have nearly empty lots, so it is not just Tesla that can't keep up with demand.
 
Tesla's problems are manufacturing capacity and delivery channels.
Giga Shanghai is still expanding, Fremont is expanding, Giga Berlin and Austin should start production later this year.
Delivery trucks are leaving Fremont constantly.

Of course semiconductor shortage is everyone's problem, but Tesla designs its own chips which streamlines getting specs to the Foundries.
 
The only stock available right now is cars that are less in demand. Trucks and sports cars are generally limited. Not only a Tesla issue.
 
jhs914 said:
Every new car dealer in my area (all brands) have nearly empty lots, so it is not just Tesla that can't keep up with demand.
Click to expand...
What are their YOY results? My understanding is most manufacturers are slowing production due to chip shortage.
This is a key reason used cars prices are up.
 
JeffKeryk said:
What are their YOY results? My understanding is most manufacturers are slowing production due to chip shortage.
This is a key reason used cars prices are up.
Click to expand...
Yes, I've also read about the chip shortage causing production slow downs. The problem is that when Covid hit the manufacturers cut way back on parts orders causing their suppliers to massively scale back so that now that demand has picked up supply is lagging. I suspect that Tesla doesn't have the same supplier issue with chips so they can maintain production levels.
 
Last edited:
Good for jobs is good. Do see a lot of them, wish most would stop showing off their ev acceleration. Just calm down, you can get there without ten drag races. We all get to the Starbucks one way or another.
 
jhs914 said:
Every new car dealer in my area (all brands) have nearly empty lots, so it is not just Tesla that can't keep up with demand.
Click to expand...

This is true. We discussed this in a recent thread. My dealer normally has 300+ vehicles in stock and he's got 30 right now. However, there was a ton of Tesla stock about a month ago in the GTA, now, nothing.
 
I read the Lexus RX plant in Canada was temporarily shut down due to an outbreak at a parts supplier, I believe.
RX is Lexus' bread and butter.
 
jhs914 said:
I'm suspect that Tesla doesn't have the same supplier issue with chips so they can maintain production levels.
Click to expand...
From a sky high level, there are 2 steps in chip fabrication. Design and wafer fab.
Design is done by companies like NVIDEA. NVIDEA does not fab (manufacture) the chips.
Automotive chips are manufactured at Fabs and Foundries. Tesla designs its own chips, unlike other manufacturers.
This streamlines the process and enables more control over design competition.
This is a key reason Tesla is referred to as a tech company.
The 2 biggest foundries are TSMC and Samsung, in that order.

Personally, I am in favor of bringing back semiconductor manufacturing onshore.
I have worked in SEMI for almost 30 years.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Tesla's problems are manufacturing capacity and delivery channels.
Giga Shanghai is still expanding, Fremont is expanding, Giga Berlin and Austin should start production later this year.
Delivery trucks are leaving Fremont constantly.

Of course semiconductor shortage is everyone's problem, but Tesla designs its own chips which streamlines getting specs to the Foundries.
Click to expand...
I think the foundry problem is more about price and lead time.

In a nut shell TSMC (as one example) will sell you the capacity you wanted if you will pay for the premium for the priority and bump out the cheapskates. At the beginning of COVID lock down all the car companies with JIT manufacturing just cancel the contracts, and TSMC sold them to other companies to build, say, wifi router chips, laptop chips, GPU chips (crypto mining), data center chips, tablet chips, video game console chips, etc. It is their fault for changing their minds.

Tesla will be fine for paying more to bump out their competitors in fab capacity, as their car is expensive and they can lose more for not delivering an EV that cost $50k vs Ford not delivering a $14k Fiesta or Mitsubishi not delivering a $10k Mirage. They can probably afford to bump out a few $150 CPU from AMD or $300 GPU from nVidia.
 
Nash said:
Good for jobs is good. Do see a lot of them, wish most would stop showing off their ev acceleration. Just calm down, you can get there without ten drag races. We all get to the Starbucks one way or another.
Click to expand...
People need a way to justify their EV purchase just the same as V6 / V8 / Turbo purchase. I wish we can just stop those fake engine noise nonsense today.
 
PandaBear said:
I think the foundry problem is more about price and lead time.

In a nut shell TSMC (as one example) will sell you the capacity you wanted if you will pay for the premium for the priority and bump out the cheapskates. At the beginning of COVID lock down all the car companies with JIT manufacturing just cancel the contracts, and TSMC sold them to other companies to build, say, wifi router chips, laptop chips, GPU chips (crypto mining), data center chips, tablet chips, video game console chips, etc. It is their fault for changing their minds.

Tesla will be fine for paying more to bump out their competitors in fab capacity, as their car is expensive and they can lose more for not delivering an EV that cost $50k vs Ford not delivering a $14k Fiesta or Mitsubishi not delivering a $10k Mirage. They can probably afford to bump out a few $150 CPU from AMD or $300 GPU from nVidia.
Click to expand...
1st there is design. Those designs need to be run on a pilot line and QA'ed. Then production runs.
Design is a huge deal, especially with the newer, more complex chip requirements.
Tesla designs in house for several reasons, not the least of which is they are not competing for design work.

Foundries want to build the more complex chips because the margin is higher.
Did you know Tesla just partnered with Samsung for 5nm tech node?
That's 5 billionths of a meter for the smallest geometries (trace width and separation).
5 freakin' billionths of a meter? You're killing me! 60B transistors on a single chip!
 
Last edited:
Prior to working for Tesla I worked for a small computer manufacturer that designed and made boards that were used in everything from cell phone towers to bomb sniffing devices. Supplies of critical chips was always a problem, even back in the mid 2000's. We weren't big enough to leverage our demand or pay extra for expedited delivery. So we just tried to plan accurately and have some safety stock on hand.

It is interesting that only 5 weeks into Q2 Tesla already has their production pre-sold. And that their Q2 production will undoubtedly be considerably higher than each quarter previous for probably the last year. That tells me two things: demand for EV's is strong, and demand for EV's costing $40K +++ is also strong. What are Tesla's numbers going to look like at the beginning of 2023 when their new factories are up and running at full speed and they have an EV selling for under $30K ?

I am currently awaiting delivery on a new Jaguar F Type R. The factory was shut down last week due to the global chip shortage. But it appears that my car was shipped just before the shutdown and is in transit now. And I won't need no stinking fake engine noise pumped through the speakers.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top