Taking Kharg Island

[Owen Lucas]

Question from a purely military and strategic point of view.

Let me preface, I have no military experience whatsoever.

We have an excellent expeditionary force that train for these scenarios. How hard is it to pull this off?

I figure the Iranians wouldn't want to bomb their own fuel depots and infrastructure considering it provides 95% of their income.

I guess you'd have to worry about the locals? Maybe they would blow up their own fuel depot?

 

[greenjp]

Our military is exceptionally capable at the tactical level. I suspect this would be a relatively simple mission against an outmatched adversary.

Strategically, they're not the ones making the decisions and this is typically where the failures occur. I'll leave it at that.

jeff

 

[CleanSump]

These people would absolutely go scorched Earth and and not hesitate to kill their own people or destroy their own resources to kill Americans.

 

[Owen Lucas]

These people would absolutely go scorched Earth and and not hesitate to kill their own people or destroy their own resources to kill Americans.

That's what I'm afraid of.

 

[Zee09]

We need to take KC130s and suck the oil reserves from the island via the air

 

[burbguy82]

20 + years ago, I definitely would have been a part of this mission.

The Army's 82nd Airborne Division, other than being the military's main conventional QRF, (Quick Reaction Force), is charged with the seizure of enemy airfields WITHOUT the total destruction of said airfield, to allow follow up forces to land from the air. This idea, and objective, omits indiscriminate bombing, and in most cases, bombing in general, as the mission is to take and hold an area, and to allow its use by friendlies. By in large, it is a direct action, engagement, under the cover of night.

Another argument on this forum, about A10s being obsolete.......they are perfect for CAS in these situations, over course as @Astro14 stated, with air dominance from fighter jets.

Although this island is not an airfield, it is well within the divisions mission statement.

Would it be easy, no. Would it cost lives, yes. It would be a massive joint effort, of all branches, all in support of the paratroopers.

To be honest, on behalf of those in line and being one of them in the past.......I hope they do it. As a paratrooper, there is no higher honor than to have a combat jump. No member I know of in service has a "mustard stain". Last official combat jump was in Panama in 1989. Some of the readers here will not understand this concept. It would be quite a thing really.

If they go.........godspeed.........and unleash hell.

 

[IndyIan]

I think it would be relatively easy to take, as its not obviously fortified. But it seems like the best plan would be just to leave the area... Invading Iran is a non-starter, so holding a small island off the coast for an indefinite period is going to be costly, and pointless, as it seems likely that the straight of Hormuz will not be completely safe for shipping until Iran agrees to that.

I'm not really sure who started the whole mess in the middle east way back? I guess once oil was discovered, the big oil companies of the world had to have control of it, so puppet governments were installed, democracies died, corruption and cronyism was normalized, and then the dictators/theocracies took over...

The US and liberal democracies can be self sufficient with fossil fuels now, so why not leave the middle east, its not worth it anymore for the average citizen of the US/west to mess with. If they only sell to India or China or whoever, it still increases the global oil supply and lowers prices at the pump down the street from you.

 

[fdcg27]

There is a lot to consider involved in landing ground forces in hostile territory.
While with enough manpower I have no doubt that Kharq could be taken you'd see heavy losses as well as a remaining insurgency hiding among the very expansive facilities.
This would not be an easy nor cheap mission for our troops nor for anyone else's.
There is also the possibility that the locals would blow everything up to keep the asset from falling into enemy hands.
I have read that this is a contingency plan for Taiwan in the event of a PRC invasion. Destroy all of those chip foundries and China is left with the reunion of their wayward province with none of the industrial might that made it so desirable.

 

[Geekhead]

Question from a purely military and strategic point of view.

Let me preface, I have no military experience whatsoever.

We have an excellent expeditionary force that train for these scenarios. How hard is it to pull this off?

I figure the Iranians wouldn't want to bomb their own fuel depots and infrastructure considering it provides 95% of their income.

I guess you'd have to worry about the locals? Maybe they would blow up their own fuel depot?

Fighting motivated adversaries in their own backyard historically is a tough grind. Iranians have been preparing for this invasion since the 1980's. It probably is heavily mined and has extensive underground fortifications. Defensive artillery/missiles and drones from the mainland are an issue. They probably would disable the oil terminals as they already know what $100-200/barrel of oil is doing to the US economy. I hope saner heads prevail and this potential bloodbath can be avoided.

 

[4wd]

We need to take KC130s and suck the oil reserves from the island via the air

 

[Owen Lucas]

The US and liberal democracies can be self sufficient with fossil fuels now, so why not leave the middle east, its not worth it anymore for the average citizen of the US/west to mess with. If they only sell to India or China or whoever, it still increases the global oil supply and lowers prices at the pump down the street from you.

The only problem is they want to kill us and anyone else with our way of life and freedom.

 

[IndyIan]

These people would absolutely go scorched Earth and and not hesitate to kill their own people or destroy their own resources to kill Americans.

I don't know what the percentage of Iranians willing to die fighting for the current government would be? Max 10-15%? Now people can be coerced to fight of course, but the average worker on that island is surely not loyal to the Revolutionary Guard.
The majority of people in Iran are regular people under a brutal theocratic dictatorship, but can't find a way to remove them.

 

[Al]

I support what we are doing. But I don't support losing more American lives. That said; they are probably looking at blowing up their own oil wells like in Iraq. And these wells are under higher pressure. Hope we have considered that.

 

[Astro14]

It is my sincere hope that our ground forces receive overwhelming fire support if they go in - fire support from the air, from surface units, whatever - our strength is in joint operations where the effort is integrated, the effects and objectives clearly defined, and the support to those on the ground is persistent, effective, and capable.

I don’t want our soldiers on an equal footing - I want them to have overwhelming advantage through seamless integration, good weapons, and precision fires in support.

And, if A-10s are available, and we can keep the IRIAF off them, then, by all means, load them heavy and let them loose.

To be completely honest, I don’t want our guys on the ground unless we dominate the air.

Not just control.

Dominate.

By the way, my criticism of the A-10 comes from programmatic considerations (cost vs. capability) and the likely shape of future conflict.

But in this scenario? With complete dominance of the air?

They’re about perfect for the mission.

 

[IndyIan]

The only problem is they want to kill us and anyone else with our way of life and freedom.

Not the average person there, they want the same way of life and freedoms. 100's of thousands have died trying to remove the hateful dictatorship over the year, so don't confuse the government with the population.
Who knows, maybe starting a land war would drain the dictatorships resources to the point the population could rise up? But a huge potential cost and it could go the same way as Afghanistan, with a terrible leader chosen by the west who failed immediately....

 

[gman2304]

I feel confident that the only democracy in the Middle East has and has had a lot of input into how all this will unfold. They live in a tough neighborhood!

 

[4wd]

The US and liberal democracies can be self sufficient with fossil fuels now, so why not leave the middle east, it’s not worth it anymore for the average citizen of the US/west to mess with. If they only sell to India or China or whoever, it still increases the global oil supply and lowers prices at the pump down the street from you.

Japan and S Korea need the LNG. Therefore, even if we renegotiate how the east/west pipeline* is used - start to monitor that - those countries will have to negotiate something - and it could likely be a fee like they are doing now.
As you point out - they will let China oil through - but then take China off the east/west at some point.
*This pipeline was built to avoid the Straight in 2012 … and I’d assume more lines could be installed …

 

[IndyIan]

Japan and S Korea need the LNG. Therefore, even if we renegotiate how the east/west pipeline* is used - start to monitor that - those countries will have to negotiate something - and it could likely be a fee like they are doing now.
As you point out - they will let China oil through - but then take China off the east/west at some point.
*This pipeline was built to avoid the Straight in 2012 … and I’d assume more lines could be installed …

The US and Canada can ramp up production and export in a couple years too. I guess investing in potentially excess production and distribution is risky, but it seems that betting on global instability is probably pretty safe for a couple more years anyways...

 

[wwillson]

I'm not really sure who started the whole mess in the middle east way back? I guess once oil was discovered, the big oil companies of the world had to have control of it, so puppet governments were installed, democracies died, corruption and cronyism was normalized, and then the dictators/theocracies took over...

History books are important to read.

 

[Astro14]

I'm not really sure who started the whole mess in the middle east way back? I guess once oil was discovered, the big oil companies of the world had to have control of it, so puppet governments were installed, democracies died, corruption and cronyism was normalized, and then the dictators/theocracies took over...

Democracies died? You think the Middle East was made up of Democracies prior to the discovery of oil? And that cronyism came later?

LOL…

Seriously?

You really need to read more!