As you can see, lots of do's and don't's. What it boils down to is that this is your car and you should do what makes you comfortable. If it was my car it would get changed every year, but that's me. As a last resort, just flip a coin.
I'm not saying that I wouldn't change it, but wouldn't the value of getting a UOA be so that you could figure out exactly how long an interval to run, and assuming it's more than a year, you end up saving time and money in subsequent years?
Let's see, the advice so far is change it, don't change it, get a UOA, don't get a UOA. Looks like the OP may just have to flip a coin as has been mentioned.
Jeez, I've kept the same oil in for up to 5 years in seldom driven trucks. What's to make it go bad? It takes by-products of combustion to deplete TBN. No combustion, no depletion. It's not an age thing. It's chemistry.