Retirement investing...

Nice when the job pays well also. Here in South Carolina you're paid horribly and to top that if its a state county or town job they take 9% for the pension fund imagine putting 6% into the 401k family medical is 290 per period and you're only making 30-35k.
 
These growth predictions seem optimistic. Tell me if I am wrong, but historically we had recessions every 10 to 15 years to rebalance the economy and usually your 401K would take a decent dump (depending on risk Level) that would take 1 to 3 years to recover/grow, then rinse and repeat. So the table above is not quite right? The Covid recession didn't seem like a real one to me. It' s interesting how long can we keep going before a crash.

Near retirement, my 403B is now on the conservative side and I am at about a 11% growth (still decent). My TIAA advisor has been coaching me managing my future tax burden. I've been mentoring my young plebes to learn the retirement financial basics early in their careers.
We could debate for a long time what a reasonable rate of return is. I asked AI what the average return was and it suggested between 5% and 8% so that is the table I created.

Of course, investing is an individual thing, and emotions are a large piece. IMO, if you haven't had returns well into the double digits in the last 3+ years you should seek some different advice or take a different approach. I have seen a 100% return in 3 years, so averaged over 30% per year. Yes down in 2016, and 2020, but most other years significantly better than10% returns.

FWIW, I started investing in my 401K when I was eligible as an immigrant in 2009. I sit here in 2025 with a number well into the 7 digits and no sign of slowing down. I'm still 7 to 10 years from retirement.
 
There’s a good reason why Amazon built a very LARGE campus in India and trimming fat in the USA.
While I'm sure there are useless employees in USA I'm not sure that every overseas seat is useful... I recall Donald's thread about what he had to go through to get an IT position, and I have to figure, there were more than a few pencil pushers involved in managing that mess.

India is what, a billion people? 3x the USA? and a growing/emerging country? Companies love to see positive growth rates. Amazon has probably hit saturation in the US. And now it's entrenched (how many would give up Prime no matter how bad its service gets?). Focus on getting in someplace else, and ride the wave up?

That's my speculation, fed in part by unvalidated scuttlebutt at work that indicated our ventures in India were not "cheaper"--the labor wasn't cheaper, and the end product certainly wasn't better (whatever tasks they were given). But... foot in the door. People tend to want to buy product from companies on their own soil (at least initially). And companies want to make sales. Local representation helps pave the process.
 
My only gripe and it's 100% on me.

I really should have STARTED at 20% retirement savings instead of 8%. All the dopey pre-internet pamphlets said 8% would be adequate. When I woke up and said, no way (around year 2001) was just barely in the nick of time. Point being, catching up is tough. I loved they added the 55+ catch up amount. I don't remember exactly but after the kids were out of school and flown the coop we were saving $4500`+ per month. Now we only save a few thousand per month. :) Retirement is always different than planned.
 
My only gripe and it's 100% on me.

I really should have STARTED at 20% retirement savings instead of 8%. All the dopey pre-internet pamphlets said 8% would be adequate. When I woke up and said, no way (around year 2001) was just barely in the nick of time. Point being, catching up is tough. I loved they added the 55+ catch up amount. I don't remember exactly but after the kids were out of school and flown the coop we were saving $4500`+ per month. Now we only save a few thousand per month. :) Retirement is always different than planned.
I wish I had started at 8%! I flat out did not trust the idea of saving and investing when I started my career, and so I only did 3% (and got a 3% match--had I done at least 5% I could have had a full 5% match!). I had a fundamentally wrong idea that people made money on the stock market by timing the market. Took too many years to learn otherwise.

I put in a few good years but am not happy about cutting back for a few years so as to pay for college--not happy about this turn but am hoping I got enough put aside (and am still saving, albeit only something like 17% despite wife going back to work).
 
My only gripe and it's 100% on me.

I really should have STARTED at 20% retirement savings instead of 8%. All the dopey pre-internet pamphlets said 8% would be adequate. When I woke up and said, no way (around year 2001) was just barely in the nick of time. Point being, catching up is tough. I loved they added the 55+ catch up amount. I don't remember exactly but after the kids were out of school and flown the coop we were saving $4500`+ per month. Now we only save a few thousand per month. :) Retirement is always different than planned.
And the positive....you are retired AND saving a few thousand a month not drawing down. That is way better than many/most.

I'm about 6 years from retirement (hopefully). Even now my wife and I are trying to figure out best ways at that point to maximize transfer to the kids and help them. My son has a good job but many loans to pay back. My daughter is in grad school but very good job prospects but also loans. I need to do the financial planner and estate planning thing sooner than later.

My thoughts for now is two trusts one with me, wife, son and the other me, wife, daughter. I'll be able to put a chunk in each and invest that almost as it is now in 401k. Possibly a third trust with all of us on it invested with more conservative prospects that I can draw from as needed to replace what social security, and pensions don't cover on monthly income/need.
 
My only gripe and it's 100% on me.

I really should have STARTED at 20% retirement savings instead of 8%. All the dopey pre-internet pamphlets said 8% would be adequate. When I woke up and said, no way (around year 2001) was just barely in the nick of time. Point being, catching up is tough. I loved they added the 55+ catch up amount. I don't remember exactly but after the kids were out of school and flown the coop we were saving $4500`+ per month. Now we only save a few thousand per month. :) Retirement is always different than planned.
Its hard to convince a 20 something year old that the "pennies" they put away in that decade will be the most valuable ones they ever save.. I was lucky enough to start putting away 11% +5% match at 23. Looking back at the actual amounts back then they were tiny compared to what I save now, but the "snowball" that they created generates more money every year than my current contributions. I'm 38 now and feel like I'm right on track.

Best gift my folks ever gave me was a $500 mutual fund when I was 16 or 17 and letting me see how it could grow for a few years before I had to make any investing decisions for myself. I plan to do the same for my kids when they're that age.

Market goes up and down obviously, but my TSP is up 20% YTD and I've got another mutual fund that's 25% YTD.
 
These growth predictions seem optimistic. Tell me if I am wrong, but historically we had recessions every 10 to 15 years to rebalance the economy and usually your 401K would take a decent dump (depending on risk Level) that would take 1 to 3 years to recover/grow, then rinse and repeat. So the table above is not quite right? The Covid recession didn't seem like a real one to me. It' s interesting how long can we keep going before a crash.

Near retirement, my 403B is now on the conservative side and I am at about a 11% growth (still decent). My TIAA advisor has been coaching me managing my future tax burden. I've been mentoring my young plebes to learn the retirement financial basics early in their careers.
The below link has to annual return for the S&P 500:
https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

Here is the min and max 30 year return (geometric mean) based on this data set:
Min 7.97%
Max 13.63%

Probably stating the obvious but everyone's time horizon is not 30 years for the last dollar they put in.
 
Here's the S&P top 10 by weight. Notice anything? Without tech, the market does not look so extraordinary. The top 5 comprise almost 30% of the value.
1761750784587.webp
 
My only gripe and it's 100% on me.

I really should have STARTED at 20% retirement savings instead of 8%. All the dopey pre-internet pamphlets said 8% would be adequate. When I woke up and said, no way (around year 2001) was just barely in the nick of time. Point being, catching up is tough. I loved they added the 55+ catch up amount. I don't remember exactly but after the kids were out of school and flown the coop we were saving $4500`+ per month. Now we only save a few thousand per month. :) Retirement is always different than planned.
When starting out, building the nest egg, putting in as much $ as possible is beneficial. Later in life, the compound interest factor is lessened, thus, it's not as important. In fact, I'd have stopped entirely, but I wanted the companies 75% contribution match.

Just this week, with the market trending up, I made more in growth than I contributed all of last year. Putting more in now, doesn't move the needle.
 
It’s not hard to become a net worth millionaire at least in retirement. Just takes time, patience and perseverance and a bit of discipline. Challenge are emotions however those make us human.
True, but the market run starting about 2010 has been unprecedented. I wish more people followed your advice; it is thought 50% or more Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Of course there is more to it than that, but just the same...
 
IMO, if you haven't had returns well into the double digits in the last 3+ years you should seek some different advice or take a different approach.
Do others agree with this? Especially in my case I stated I am on the cusp of retirement and the opportunity to recover from a deep loss is not there? I know people who lost 1/3 of their savings during the 2008 downturn. I was taught to manage your investments for stability at, and into retirement, not risky gains. I experienced at least three recessions - some got beat down severely.
 
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My retirement account is in money market where it is safe. My younger wife has hers in stock growth funds and doing well. At my age I will not risk mine.
 
Nice when the job pays well also. Here in South Carolina you're paid horribly and to top that if its a state county or town job they take 9% for the pension fund imagine putting 6% into the 401k family medical is 290 per period and you're only making 30-35k.
You forgot to mention the pension is underfunded because they keep refusing to properly put their amount in. Current governor ran on fixing it then promptly forgot.
 
Do others agree with this? Especially in my case I stated I am on the cusp of retirement and the opportunity to recover from a deep loss is not there? I know people who lost 1/3 of their savings during the 2008 downturn. I was taught to manage your investments for stability at, and into retirement, not risky gains. I experienced at least three recessions - some got beat down severely.
Yes, but there's a caveat. Here's the numbers:
1761757476832.webp

Now here's the caveat... If you are near or at retirement, hopefully you have budgeted and garnered enough to be financially stable for the rest of your lives and perhaps leave some for others. Given you may not have time to recover a substantial down turn, it becomes time to go conservative. It is far better to "wish you would have stayed agressive" than to "wish you would have gone conservative".

Good luck. Balance, Grasshopper...

By the way, investors who got hit in 2008 but stayed in, ad perhaps continued to invest, are looking pretty darn good right now, right?
 
Do others agree with this? Especially in my case I stated I am on the cusp of retirement and the opportunity to recover from a deep loss is not there? I know people who lost 1/3 of their savings during the 2008 downturn. I was taught to manage your investments for stability at, and into retirement, not risky gains. I experienced at least three recessions - some got beat down severely.
My $.02 - comes down to your risk profile. If you are at the point that you can tolerate lower returns with what you have saved and are risk adverse, nothing wrong with that. If you can't tolerate the drop and don't have time to wait for the ride back up, hopefully you have enough saved you can be more risk adverse.

What gets lost in many of these threads is time horizon and how much someone has in savings/how much they need in retirement/what their plan is.
 
I am at the age of 78. I have been retirement saving since age 30, going through up and down markets, the dot.com rise and crash, the George W Bush 2008 near depression and subsequent market rise after the Federal bailouts , etc.

I see the market now, momentum stocks rising with visions of Artificial Intelligence. CNBC talking heads arguing on whether the market is in a bubble, or the high market prices reflecting some giant returns off in the future. They all generally agree the market is too high, but will continue to go higher before it "corrects". That to me is scary. It means the future crash, when it occurs, may be massive.

Then, I realized, that if I got out of the Teslas, Amazons, etc, I could invest instead in mature value oriented stocks such as UPS, Verizon, Pfizer, that are already beaten down in price but paying good dividends, and financially stable enough to keep paying them. I bought these stocks at low prices so that the dividend yields are 7% or more on what I paid for them.

As a result, I doubled my annual passive income and am collecting a low six figure total retirement income (including SS and a small pension). The dividends are about half my passive income. Six figures for sitting on my duff.

Yes, these stocks fluctuate some from day to day, but I bought them for the dividends, not to try to make capital gains.
 
I am at the age of 78. I have been retirement saving since age 30, going through up and down markets, the dot.com rise and crash, the George W Bush 2008 near depression and subsequent market rise after the Federal bailouts , etc.

I see the market now, momentum stocks rising with visions of Artificial Intelligence. CNBC talking heads arguing on whether the market is in a bubble, or the high market prices reflecting some giant returns off in the future. They all generally agree the market is too high, but will continue to go higher before it "corrects". That to me is scary. It means the future crash, when it occurs, may be massive.

Then, I realized, that if I got out of the Teslas, Amazons, etc, I could invest instead in mature value oriented stocks such as UPS, Verizon, Pfizer, that are already beaten down in price but paying good dividends, and financially stable enough to keep paying them. I bought these stocks at low prices so that the dividend yields are 7% or more on what I paid for them.

As a result, I doubled my annual passive income and am collecting a low six figure total retirement income (including SS and a small pension). The dividends are about half my passive income. Six figures for sitting on my duff.

Yes, these stocks fluctuate some from day to day, but I bought them for the dividends, not to try to make capital gains.
You need to talk to Schwab. They can help you find a balance; that balance is based on a big number of things. Do you have a home free and clear that needs nothing? Your health and life expectancy? Your goals?

And everything changes. I thought I knew where I was, my wishes, the future. I thought I was pretty set. I was wrong. Lot's of needs arise...
 
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