Recession over in 2009?

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Well then ..now that it's well on its way ..perhaps there should be a central management authority that brokers all commerce. With the sensible evolution to remove barriers to free trade and free markets borders and trade agreements ...treaties ..all will become unnecessary.



General Tagge "impossible how will the Emperor maintain control without the bureaucracy?"

Tarkin " the Regional governors will have direct control over their territories.
 
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Mark to market of course has nothing do with any of this.


Would you rather invest in companies/banks in which you have no idea what the real value of their assets are?

This whole mark to market thing has been blown out of proportion by people who have an agenda - mainly investment bankers who want the ability to hide losses.

Without it, all we get is even more inflated PE ratios and a greater market bubble.
 
Originally Posted By: CivicFan
Since nobody knows when this will end, anyone can pull a number out of their asses and say it.


True, but if lots of financial experts start telling us it'll recover this year (even if they don't truly believe that), then maybe, just maybe, it'll become a self fulfilling prophecy. We need good news to get people buying stocks again, and once the stocks start to rise, people will get confident and the ball gets rolling and things start to turn around.

If all the experts keep telling people it'll be 2 or 3 years or more, it just makes things worse. We need good news now, as there is far too much bad news on the economic front these days.
 
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Mark to market of course has nothing do with any of this.


Would you rather invest in companies/banks in which you have no idea what the real value of their assets are?

This whole mark to market thing has been blown out of proportion by people who have an agenda - mainly investment bankers who want the ability to hide losses.

Without it, all we get is even more inflated PE ratios and a greater market bubble.



Exactly. I wish I could suspend mark to market accounting on all the dog investments I've made over the years. Losses disappear like magic.
 
If regulators had done the task they'd been charged with, a lot of this could have been avoided.

C.P.A. used to mean something. An audited financial statement meant that test work and verifications had been performed.

I laugh when I hear that more regulation is the answer. All the regulation in the world means nothing without enforcement.

All I have to do is look at the 2 in 5 drivers talking on the cellphone as they drive.
 
Originally Posted By: sciphi
2 weeks. By March 10th the recession will be over.

That's right out of me arse!
All the BITOG members are holding you to your date !!!
 
Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Hmmm...since everyone is broke, why not just reset all the counters and go with one common global currency?




Actually, this would be a great idea. It would remove currency risks and speculation, not to mention export/import imbalances caused by fluctuations in relative currency values. That would go a long way in relieving some global economic pressures that create instability.
Yeah get a marque on our wrist or forehead so we can buy and sell, praise [censored] along with that and everything should be ok.
 
Originally Posted By: Steve S
Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Hmmm...since everyone is broke, why not just reset all the counters and go with one common global currency?




Actually, this would be a great idea. It would remove currency risks and speculation, not to mention export/import imbalances caused by fluctuations in relative currency values. That would go a long way in relieving some global economic pressures that create instability.
Yeah get a marque on our wrist or forehead so we can buy and sell, praise [censored] along with that and everything should be ok.


Here we go....

Never let practicality get in the way of a good mythology.
 
When? How about never.

Easy credit, lax regulation, overpriced houses, massive consumer debt, ponzi schemes, cooking the books, etc, etc, etc. Those days are over for good. Since the manufacturing base in the USA is gone, that's all we had left. The mountain of garbage continues to stink even more every day.
 
Originally Posted By: AcuraTech
When? How about never.

Easy credit, lax regulation, overpriced houses, massive consumer debt, ponzi schemes, cooking the books, etc, etc, etc. Those days are over for good. Since the manufacturing base in the USA is gone, that's all we had left. The mountain of garbage continues to stink even more every day.



That really is about the size of it, in my view. I don't believe we have created any real value in years, have just been, as they say, "cutting each others' hair".
 
Originally Posted By: oilyriser
A mutual fund I once held had their headquarters in a building who's address was 666.
The company stocks went to [censored]?
 
Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Originally Posted By: oilyriser
The recession will be over when everyone finally decides it's over. You just have to convince enough people. But I suspect the short-sellers still think they can work things a bit more.


Silly oily.
Of course it has nothing to do with massive inventories caused by easy credit, level 3 assets, insolvent banks, historic credit bubbles. Nope. All we have to do is believe in the tooth fairy and all of this will end. Listen everybody: the banks aren't really bankrupt. We just think they are.

But then again, I do short the banks at times so I must be messing with your minds....mwwahahahahaaha.


This.

The recession will be over after this worldwide credit bubble deflates the rest of the way taking the insolvent with it. Until then, expect more of what we've seen the last few months...
 
Originally Posted By: AcuraTech
When? How about never.

Since the manufacturing base in the USA is gone, that's all we had left.



Where did you get this idea from? The US still has the largest manufacturing industry in the world, ahead of China on a dollar basis. Where do you think most aircraft are built? X-ray and cat-scan machines? Heavy construction equipment? Earthmoving and mining equipment?

Why do people keep insisting that everything has moved to China? All they build are toys and bicycles and toaster ovens and consumer trinkets. The real stuff is still built in the US.
 
Originally Posted By: tonycarguy
Where did you get this idea from? The US still has the largest manufacturing industry in the world, ahead of China on a dollar basis. Where do you think most aircraft are built? X-ray and cat-scan machines? Heavy construction equipment? Earthmoving and mining equipment?

Why do people keep insisting that everything has moved to China? All they build are toys and bicycles and toaster ovens and consumer trinkets. The real stuff is still built in the US.


And those 100k+ semiconductor equipments, and R&D that cost 10x per ca pita vs manufacturing labor.

The only problem is we are starting to fall behind Japan and Europe in some of the the high tech industry. We (Ultratech) fall behind in the 1M+ Stepper business to Nikon, Cannon, and ASML, the European dominates the wireless equipment businesses, and now the 10 billion dollar FABs are build in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea rather than in the US.

The reason is not that we are falling behind, but we do not have a government like the Asian and European that try to protect their industrial advantage with government sponsored program. Japanese didn't win the industrial strength only by improving their quality, they have almost no cost loan from the government to enter the DRAM business and drove Intel and Intersil out, and Korean did the same in the 2000s and drove the Japanese out.

All we did is bailing out banks and the auto unions, instead of key industries with strategic R&D and funding.
 
Originally Posted By: Tempest
So what businesses should get free loans from the government?


The ones that does lots of export and will pay back the loan.
 
Well, I think expanding it beyond the give away's to arms manufacturers would have some benefit in the evolution to "free loans". I think R&D on the public's nickel is quite apparent, wouldn't you say??
 
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Originally Posted By: Tempest
So what businesses should get free loans from the government?


The ones that does lots of export and will pay back the loan.

That would be a VERY vague bill in Congress. Simply saying the government should "do something" is not helpful.

You are advocating centralized planing with the government picking the winners.
 
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