Old Soviet Venus Probe is Crashing Back to Earth 5/10/2025

Owen Lucas

Owen Lucas

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  • A failed Soviet Kosmos 482 mission from 1972, originally meant to land on Venus, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere soon.

  • Unlike most space debris that burns up, this piece is the Venus descent module, built with a tough titanium heat shield and structure designed for Venus's extreme conditions, giving it a high chance of surviving reentry.

  • Experts say it's "highly likely" the module will reach the surface intact, despite being half a ton.

  • The exact time and location of reentry are still uncertain, but it will occur somewhere between 52 degrees North and South latitude.

  • Track the predicted landing zone here: https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience...venera-venus-lander-cosmos-482-descent-craft/

  • Despite the potential for pieces to reach the ground, the risk of it hitting any specific person is extremely low – much less than being struck by lightning. (And if you do find it, don't touch it and call authorities, as Russia still owns it.)
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/...to-land-on-venus-is-falling-to-earth-instead/
 
ripcord said:
Gotta check and see if the satellite crash rider on my insurance is paid up...
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I'm sure you could hold the probe hostage until the Russians or another government entity compensate you for your loss.
 
It was designed to withstand the temperatures of Venus, so re-entering earth atmosphere will not cause it to fall apart. Whererver it comes down, any bad material on it will only be Scattered by the impact force which still could be significant contamination of an area if it has radioactive material. But likey not any where near as bad as if it broke up during re-entry over a large population.

It does have a parachute system, but it's likley that it will not work after all the time it was in orbit.

Still, let's keep out gingers crossed on this one.

--------------------

I still rember the day Skylab re-entered. I walked into work that morning wearing my baseball glove and said " I'm ready."
 
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I have not seen any reports mention radioactive material. Venus is closer to the Sun than Earth is, so it was almost certainly solar powered.
 
Owen Lucas said:
  • A failed Soviet Kosmos 482 mission from 1972, originally meant to land on Venus, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere soon.

  • Unlike most space debris that burns up, this piece is the Venus descent module, built with a tough titanium heat shield and structure designed for Venus's extreme conditions, giving it a high chance of surviving reentry.

  • Experts say it's "highly likely" the module will reach the surface intact, despite being half a ton.

  • The exact time and location of reentry are still uncertain, but it will occur somewhere between 52 degrees North and South latitude.

  • Track the predicted landing zone here: https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience...venera-venus-lander-cosmos-482-descent-craft/

  • Despite the potential for pieces to reach the ground, the risk of it hitting any specific person is extremely low – much less than being struck by lightning. (And if you do find it, don't touch it and call authorities, as Russia still owns it.)
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/...to-land-on-venus-is-falling-to-earth-instead/
Click to expand...
Duck if you see it flying by.
 
Looks like it already re-entered somewhere around Germany:

Status 10 May 14:21 CEST

As the descent craft was not spotted over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST pass by our colleagues at Fraunhofer FHR , it is most likely that the reentry occurred on the track between 06:04 UTC and 07:32 UTC. The latest prediction diagrams have been updated accordingly but reflect the commonly used full prediction uncertainties where ESA’s Space Debris Office predicted that the reentry of the descent craft will have taken place at:

06:16 UTC (08:16 CEST) on 10 May 2025

The uncertainty in this prediction was +/- 0.36 hours. See further down for the latest prediction graphs.

We have not received so far any reports on visual direct observations of the final re-entry, or on any impacts on ground.



Status 10 May 09:56 CEST

As the descent craft was not spotted by radar over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST pass, it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred.

Status 10 May 08:35 CEST

The descent craft was seen by radar systems over Germany at approximately 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC, corresponding to 06:30 CEST and 08:04 CEST, respectively. There is no further update on the estimated reentry window as we are now roughly in the centre, corresponding to the red dot labeled COIW (centre of impact window) in the ground track chart below.
 
Donald said:
If you find it and it gets in the press you may find yourself falling out a 2nd story window or dying of radioactive poisoning. And not from the spaceship
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Speaking of finders keepers what is the law regarding keeping stuff you find? I know that supposedly the military has a 50 year ownership then it's yours. There was a PBS Nova episode from the early 90's that showcased a group of aviation historians that found a B-29 in Alaska and rebuilt it. Unfortunately on takeoff the apu caught fire and took the whole airplane with it. Recently a guy went down to Mexico as someone found a Space X booster floating off the gulf of Mexico. He paid $1800 I think. Apparently he was flagged by border patrol. They "called " Space X and supposedly Space X wanted it back. If they wanted it back so bad why didn't they go down to Mexico to retrieve it? They surely have trackers on their rockets and knew where the parts landed.
 
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